Recent warming by latitude associated with increased length of ragweed pollen season in central North America.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Ziska L
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3053965 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:Shifts in the timing of key leaf phenological events including budburst, foliage coloration, and leaf fall have been observed worldwide and are consistent with climate warming. Quantifying changes in growing season length (GSL) because of shifts in both spring and autumn leaf phenology is crucial for modeling annual net ecosystem carbon uptake. However, a lack of long-term autumn phenology datasets has prevented assessment of these growing season level changes. We investigated shifts in growing season length, budburst, foliage coloration, and leaf fall over the past century in seven native hardwood species using a historic leaf phenology dataset collected in Wauseon, OH from 1883-1912 paired with contemporary observations. Using long-term meteorological data, we investigated temperature and precipitation trends over 130 years. Finally, we correlated spring and fall phenophases with monthly temperature and precipitation variables from the twelve months preceding that phenophase using historical meteorological data. We found significant extension of growing season length over the past century in five of the seven study species (ANOVA, p < 0.05) which resulted primarily from delayed foliage coloration rather than from earlier budburst in contrast to the few other studies assessing total GSL change. Our results suggest that most of the leaf phenological studies that investigate only budburst are disregarding crucial information about the end of the growing season that is essential for accurately predicting the effects of climate change in mixed-species temperate deciduous forests.
| S-EPMC9983848 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Limited observational evidence indicates that ionospheric changes caused by Arctic sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) occur at middle latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. However, it is not known if a similar interhemispheric linkage is produced by Antarctic SSWs. Here we examine thermospheric and ionospheric anomalies observed in September 2019 at middle latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. We report persistent (at least 30 days) and strong (up to 80%-100%) positive anomalies in the daytime total electron content (TEC) and increases in the thermospheric O/N2 ratio in the western region of North America. However, central and eastern regions of North America experience moderate suppression of TEC reaching 20%-40% of the baseline. Different positive and negative anomalies are observed over the European sector. We hypothesize that regional differences in the TEC response could be related to modulation of thermospheric winds during SSWs, changes in thermospheric composition, and differences in declination angle.
| S-EPMC9285337 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Pollen is a common allergen that causes significant health and financial impacts on up to a third of the population of the USA. Knowledge of the main pollen season can improve diagnosis and treatment of allergic diseases. Our objective in this study is to provide clear, quantitative visualizations of pollen data and make information accessible to many disciplines, in particular to allergy sufferers and those in the health field. We use data from 31 National Allergy Bureau (NAB) pollen stations in the continental USA and Canada from 2003 to 2017 to produce pollen calendars. We present pollen season metrics relevant to health and describe main pollen season start and end dates, durations, and annual pollen integrals for specific pollen taxa. In most locations, a small number of taxa constitute the bulk of the total pollen concentration. Start dates for tree and grass pollen season depend strongly on latitude, with earlier start dates at lower latitudes. Season duration is correlated with the start dates, such that locations with earlier start dates have a longer season. NAB pollen data have limited spatiotemporal coverage. Increased spatiotemporal monitoring will improve analysis and understanding of factors that govern airborne pollen concentrations.
| S-EPMC6934246 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The stratospheric Arctic vortex (SAV) plays a critical role in forecasting cold winters in northern mid-latitudes. Its influence on the tropospheric mid- and high-latitudes has attracted growing attention in recent years. However, the trend in the SAV during the recent two decades is still unknown. Here, using three reanalysis datasets, we found that the SAV intensity during 1998-2016 has a strengthening trend, in contrast to the weakening trend before that period. Approximately 25% of this strengthening is contributed by the warming of sea-surface temperature (SST) over the central North Pacific (CNP). Observational analysis and model experiments show that the warmed CNP SST tends to weaken the Aleutian low, subsequently weakening the upward propagation of wavenumber-1 planetary wave flux, further strengthening the SAV. This strengthened SAV suggests important implications in understanding the Arctic warming amplification and in predicting the surface temperature changes over the northern continents.
| S-EPMC5923267 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Climate change causes species range shifts and potentially alters biological invasions. The invasion of European earthworm species across northern North America has severe impacts on native ecosystems. Given the long and cold winters in that region that to date supposedly have slowed earthworm invasion, future warming is hypothesized to accelerate earthworm invasions into yet non-invaded regions. Alternatively, warming-induced reductions in soil water content (SWC) can also decrease earthworm performance. We tested these hypotheses in a field warming experiment at two sites in Minnesota, USA by sampling earthworms in closed and open canopy in three temperature treatments in 2010 and 2012. Structural equation modeling revealed that detrimental warming effects on earthworm densities and biomass could indeed be partly explained by warming-induced reductions in SWC. The direction of warming effects depended on the current average SWC: warming had neutral to positive effects at high SWC, whereas the opposite was true at low SWC. Our results suggest that warming limits the invasion of earthworms in northern North America by causing less favorable soil abiotic conditions, unless warming is accompanied by increased and temporally even distributions of rainfall sufficient to offset greater water losses from higher evapotranspiration.
| S-EPMC4217098 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Vibrio vulnificus is an opportunistic bacterial pathogen, occurring in warm low-salinity waters. V. vulnificus wound infections due to seawater exposure are infrequent but mortality rates are high (~ 18%). Seawater bacterial concentrations are increasing but changing disease pattern assessments or climate change projections are rare. Here, using a 30-year database of V. vulnificus cases for the Eastern USA, changing disease distribution was assessed. An ecological niche model was developed, trained and validated to identify links to oceanographic and climate data. This model was used to predict future disease distribution using data simulated by seven Global Climate Models (GCMs) which belong to the newest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Risk was estimated by calculating the total population within 200 km of the disease distribution. Predictions were generated for different "pathways" of global socioeconomic development which incorporate projections of greenhouse gas emissions and demographic change. In Eastern USA between 1988 and 2018, V. vulnificus wound infections increased eightfold (10-80 cases p.a.) and the northern case limit shifted northwards 48 km p.a. By 2041-2060, V. vulnificus infections may expand their current range to encompass major population centres around New York (40.7°N). Combined with a growing and increasingly elderly population, annual case numbers may double. By 2081-2100 V. vulnificus infections may be present in every Eastern USA State under medium-to-high future emissions and warming. The projected expansion of V. vulnificus wound infections stresses the need for increased individual and public health awareness in these areas.
| S-EPMC10036314 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Terrestrial pollen records are abundant and widely distributed, making them an excellent proxy for past vegetation dynamics. Age-depth models relate pollen samples from sediment cores to a depositional age based on the relationship between sample depth and available chronological controls. Large-scale synthesis of pollen data benefit from consistent treatment of age uncertainties. Generating new age models helps to reduce potential artifacts from legacy age models that used outdated techniques. Traditional age-depth models, often applied for comparative purposes, infer ages by fitting a curve between dated samples. Bacon, based on Bayesian theory, simulates the sediment deposition process, accounting for both variable deposition rates and temporal/spatial autocorrelation of deposition from one sample to another within the core. Bacon provides robust uncertainty estimation across cores with different depositional processes. We use Bacon to estimate pollen sample ages from 554 North American sediment cores. This dataset standardizes age-depth estimations, supporting future large spatial-temporal studies and removes a challenging, computationally-intensive step for scientists interested in questions that integrate across multiple cores.
| S-EPMC6760146 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Landscape-scale short-rotation early-growing season prescribed fire, hereafter prescribed fire, in upland hardwood forests represents a recent shift in management strategies across eastern upland forests. Not only does this strategy depart from dormant season to growing season prescriptions, but the strategy also moves from stand-scale to landscape-scale implementation (>1,000 ha). This being so, agencies are making considerable commitments in terms of time and resources to this management strategy, but the effects on wildlife in upland forests, especially those dominated by hardwood canopy species, are relatively unknown. We initiated our study to assess whether this management strategy affects eastern wild turkey reproductive ecology on the Ozark-St. Francis National Forest. We marked 67 wild turkey hens with Global Positioning System (GPS) Platform Transmitting Terminals in 2012 and 2013 to document exposure to prescribed fire, and estimate daily nest survival, nest success, and nest-site selection. We estimated these reproductive parameters in forest units managed with prescribed fire (treated) and units absent of prescribed fire (untreated). Of 60 initial nest attempts monitored, none were destroyed or exposed to prescribed fire because a majority of fires occurred early than a majority of the nesting activity. We found nest success was greater in untreated units than treated units (36.4% versus 14.6%). We did not find any habitat characteristic differences between successful and unsuccessful nest-sites. We found that nest-site selection criteria differed between treated and untreated units. Visual concealment and woody ground cover were common selection criteria in both treated and untreated units. However, in treated units wild turkey selected nest-sites with fewer small shrubs (<5 cm ground diameter) and large trees (>20 cm DBH) but not in untreated units. In untreated units wild turkey selected nest-sites with more large shrubs (?5 cm ground diameter) but did not select for small shrubs or large trees. Our findings suggest that wild turkey have not benefited from the reintroduction of prescribed fire to the WRERA.
| S-EPMC4721652 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:As several regulatory and environmental changes have occurred in North America, trends in overdose deaths were examined in the United States (US), Ontario and British Columbia (BC), including changes in consumption levels of prescription opioids (PO) and overdose deaths, changes in correlations between consumption levels of PO and overdose deaths and modeled differences between observed and predicted overdose deaths if no changes had occurred. METHODS:Consumption levels of PO included defined daily doses for statistical purposes per million inhabitants per day for the US and Canada (2001-2015). Overdose deaths included opioid overdose deaths for the US (2001-2017) and Ontario (2003-2017) and illicit drug overdose deaths for BC (2001-2017). The analytic techniques included structural break point analyses, Pearson product-moment correlations and multivariate Gaussian state space modeling. RESULTS:Consumption levels of PO changed in the US in 2010 and in Canada in 2012. Overdose deaths changed in the US in 2014 and in Ontario and BC in 2015. Prior to the observed changes in consumption levels of PO, there were positive correlations between consumption levels of PO and overdose deaths in the US (r?=?0.99, p?<?0.001) and Ontario (r?=?0.92, p?=?0.003). After the observed changes in consumption levels of PO, there was a negative correlation between consumption levels of PO and overdose deaths in the US (r?=?-?0.99, p?=?0.002). Observed overdose deaths exceeded predicted overdose deaths by 5.7 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 4.8-6.6), 3.5 (95% CI: 3.2-3.8) and 21.8 (95% CI: 18.6-24.9) deaths per 100,000 people in the US, Ontario and BC, respectively in 2017. These excess deaths corresponded to 37.7% (95% CI: 31.9-43.6), 39.2% (95% CI: 36.3-42.1) and 72.2% (95% CI: 61.8-82.6) of observed overdose deaths in the US, Ontario and BC, respectively in 2017. CONCLUSIONS:The opioid crisis has evolved in North America, as a sizeable proportion of overdose deaths are now attributable to the several regulatory and environmental changes. These findings necessitate substance use policies to be conceptualized more broadly as well as the continued expansion of harm reduction services and types of pharmacotherapy interventions.
| S-EPMC7457770 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDengue is endemic in the Philippines. Aedes aegypti is the primary vector. This study aimed to determine the hatching behavior and viability of Ae. aegypti first-generation (F1) eggs when exposed to temperature and photoperiod regimes under laboratory conditions.MethodsParental eggs were collected from selected highland and lowland sites in the Philippine big islands (Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao) during the wet (2017-2018) and dry (2018) seasons. F1 egg cohorts were exposed separately in environmental chambers at 18, 25, and 38 °C with respective photoperiods for 6 weeks. Phenotypes (percent pharate larvae [PPL], hatch rates [HRs], and reproductive outputs [ROs]) were determined.ResultsResults of multivariate analyses of variance (MANOVA) between seasons showed significant main effects of temperature, season, and big island on all phenotypes across all sites. Significant interaction effects between seasons on all phenotypes across sites were shown between or among (1) season and big island, (2) season and temperature, (3) big island and temperature, (4) season, big island, and temperature, (5) big island, altitude, and temperature, and (6) season, big island, altitude, and temperature. Factors associated with the big islands might include their ecology, available breeding sites, and day lengths due to latitudinal differences, although they were not measured in the field. MANOVA results within each season on all phenotypes across sites showed (1) significant main effects of big island and temperature, and (2) significant interaction effects between big island and temperature within the wet season and (3) between temperature and photoperiod within the dry season. PPL were highest at 18 °C and were formed even at 38 °C in both seasons. Pharate larvae might play an adaptive role in global warming, expanded distribution to highlands, and preponderance to transmit human diseases. HRs in both seasons were highest at 25 °C and lowest at 38 °C. ROs were highest at 25 °C in the wet season and at 18 °C in the dry season.ConclusionsTemperature and latitude of Philippine big islands influenced the development-related phenotypes of Ae. aegypti in both seasons. The two seasons influenced the phenotypes and their interaction effects with big island and/or temperature and/or altitude. Recommendations include year-round enhanced 4S control strategies for mosquito vectors and water pipeline installation in rural highlands.
| S-EPMC8898531 | biostudies-literature