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Estimation of the serial interval of influenza.

ABSTRACT:

Background

: Estimates of the clinical-onset serial interval of human influenza infection (time between onset of symptoms in an index case and a secondary case) are used to inform public health policy and to construct mathematical models of influenza transmission. We estimate the serial interval of laboratory-confirmed influenza transmission in households.

Methods

: Index cases were recruited after reporting to a primary healthcare center with symptoms. Members of their households were followed-up with repeated home visits.

Results

: Assuming a Weibull model and accounting for selection bias inherent in our field study design, we used symptom-onset times from 14 pairs of infector/infectee to estimate a mean serial interval of 3.6 days (95% confidence interval = 2.9-4.3 days), with standard deviation 1.6 days.

Conclusion

: The household serial interval of influenza may be longer than previously estimated. Studies of the complete serial interval, based on transmission in all community contexts, are a priority.

SUBMITTER: Cowling BJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3057478 | biostudies-literature | 2009 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimation of the serial interval of influenza.

Cowling Benjamin J BJ Fang Vicky J VJ Riley Steven S Malik Peiris J S JS Leung Gabriel M GM

Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) 20090501 3

<h4>Background</h4>: Estimates of the clinical-onset serial interval of human influenza infection (time between onset of symptoms in an index case and a secondary case) are used to inform public health policy and to construct mathematical models of influenza transmission. We estimate the serial interval of laboratory-confirmed influenza transmission in households.<h4>Methods</h4>: Index cases were recruited after reporting to a primary healthcare center with symptoms. Members of their households ...[more]

PMID: 19279492

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