Dataset Information

Climate change risks for African agriculture.

ABSTRACT: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of major risks for African agriculture and food security caused by climate change during coming decades is confirmed by a review of more recent climate change impact assessments (14 quantitative, six qualitative). Projected impacts relative to current production levels range from -100% to +168% in econometric, from -84% to +62% in process-based, and from -57% to +30% in statistical assessments. Despite large uncertainty, there are several robust conclusions from published literature for policy makers and research agendas: agriculture everywhere in Africa runs some risk to be negatively affected by climate change; existing cropping systems and infrastructure will have to change to meet future demand. With respect to growing population and the threat of negative climate change impacts, science will now have to show if and how agricultural production in Africa can be significantly improved.

SUBMITTER: Muller C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3060257 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Climate change risks for African agriculture.

Müller Christoph C Cramer Wolfgang W Hare William L WL Lotze-Campen Hermann H

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20110228 11

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of major risks for African agriculture and food security caused by climate change during coming decades is confirmed by a review of more recent climate change impact assessments (14 quantitative, six qualitative). Projected impacts relative to current production levels range from -100% to +168% in econometric, from -84% to +62% in process-based, and from -57% to +30% in statistical assessments. Despite large uncertainty, there are s ...[more]

PMID: 21368199

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Project description:Climate change strongly impacts the agricultural sector in West Africa, threatening food security and nutrition, particularly for populations with the least adaptive capacity. Little is known about national climate change policies in the region. This systematic review identifies and analyses climate change policy documents in all 16 West African countries: (1) What are the existing climate change adaptation policies publicly available? (2) Which topics are addressed? (3) How are agriculture and food security framed and addressed? Following PRISMA guidelines, PubMed and Google scholar as key databases were searched with an extensive grey literature search. Keywords for searches were combinations of "Africa", "Climate Change", and "National Policy/Plan/Strategy/Guideline". Fifteen countries have at least one national policy document on climate change in the frame of our study. Nineteen policy documents covered seven key sectors (energy, agriculture, water resources, health, forestry, infrastructure, and education), and eight thematic areas (community resilience, disaster risk management, institutional development, industry development, research and development, policy making, economic investment, and partnerships/collaboration). At the intersection of these sectors/areas, effects of changing climate on countries/populations were evaluated and described. Climate change adaptation strategies emerged including development of local risk/disaster plans, micro-financing and insurance schemes (public or private), green energy, and development of community groups/farmers organizations. No clear trend emerged when analysing the adaptation options, however, climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector was almost always included. Analysing agriculture, nutrition, and food security, seven agricultural challenges were identified: The small scale of West African farming, information gaps, missing infrastructure, poor financing, weak farmer/community organizations, a shifting agricultural calendar, and deteriorating environmental ecology. They reflect barriers to adaptation especially for small-scale subsistence farmers with increased climate change vulnerabilities. The study has shown that most West African countries have climate change policies. Nevertheless, key questions remain unanswered, and demand for further research, e.g., on evaluating the implementation in the respective countries, persists.

Dataset Information

Climate change risks for African agriculture.

Publications

Climate change risks for African agriculture.

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