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Timing of mid-trimester cervical length shortening in high-risk women.

ABSTRACT: To examine the natural history of cervical length shortening in women who had experienced at least one prior spontaneous preterm birth at between 17+0 and 33+6 weeks' gestation.This was an analysis of prerandomization data from the multicenter Vaginal Ultrasound Cerclage Trial. Serial cervical length was measured by transvaginal sonography in 1014 high-risk women at 16+0 to 22+6 weeks. We performed survival analyses in which the outcome was cervical length shortening<25 mm and data were censored if this did not occur before 22+6 weeks' gestation. The incidence of cervical length shortening and the time to shortening were compared for women whose earliest prior preterm birth was in the mid-trimester, defined as <24 weeks, vs. those at weeks 24-33. Similar comparisons were performed based on each patient's most recent birth history.Time to cervical length shortening by survival analysis was significantly shorter (hazard ratio (HR)=2.2, P<0.0001) and the relative risk (RR) of shortening significantly higher (RR=1.8, P<0.0001) for women whose earliest prior spontaneous preterm birth was at <24 weeks. A larger effect was observed for women whose most recent birth was at <24 weeks (HR=2.8, P<0.0001; RR=2.1, P<0.0001). The observed hazard ratios remained significant after adjusting for confounders in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model.Women with a prior spontaneous preterm birth at <24 weeks are at a higher risk of cervical shortening, and do so at a higher rate and at an earlier gestational age, than do women with a later preterm birth history.

SUBMITTER: Szychowski JM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3065937 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Timing of mid-trimester cervical length shortening in high-risk women.

Szychowski J M JM Owen J J Hankins G G Iams J J Sheffield J J Perez-Delboy A A Berghella V V Wing D A DA Guzman E R ER

Ultrasound in obstetrics & gynecology : the official journal of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology 20090101 1

<h4>Objective</h4>To examine the natural history of cervical length shortening in women who had experienced at least one prior spontaneous preterm birth at between 17+0 and 33+6 weeks' gestation.<h4>Methods</h4>This was an analysis of prerandomization data from the multicenter Vaginal Ultrasound Cerclage Trial. Serial cervical length was measured by transvaginal sonography in 1014 high-risk women at 16+0 to 22+6 weeks. We performed survival analyses in which the outcome was cervical length short ...[more]

PMID: 19072745

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Project description:INTRODUCTION:Second trimester asymptomatic cervical dilation is a significant risk factor for early preterm birth. The objective of this study is to evaluate whether transvaginal ultrasound cervical length (CL) predicts asymptomatic cervical dilation on physical exam in women with short cervix (CL ?25 mm) and no prior preterm birth. MATERIAL AND METHODS:Secondary analysis of a randomized trial on pessary in asymptomatic singletons without prior preterm birth diagnosed with CL ?25 mm between 18+0/7 and 23+6/7 weeks. Participants had transvaginal ultrasound and physical cervical exam and were randomized to pessary or no pessary with all patients with cervical length ?20 mm offered vaginal progesterone. The primary outcome was to determine whether CL was predictive of asymptomatic physical cervical dilation ?1 cm using receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS:In all, 119 women were included. Based on receiver operating characteristic curve, CL ?11 mm was best predictive of cervical dilation ?1 cm, with 75% sensitivity, 80% specificity, and area under the curve 0.73 (0.55-0.91), P = 0.009. Cervical length ?11 mm had increased incidence of cervical dilation ?1 cm on physical exam (30% vs 3%, odds ratio 12.29 (3.05-49.37) P < 0.001) with a negative predictive value of 97%. Patients with ?1 cm dilation had increased preterm birth <37 weeks (75% vs 39%, P = 0.03) compared to those not dilated. Women with a CL ?11 mm had increased preterm birth <37 weeks (77% vs 31%, P < 0.001), preterm birth <34 weeks (63% vs 22%, P < 0.001), and lower birthweight (1552 ± 1047 vs 2560 ± 1072 g, P < 0.001) compared to women with CL >11 mm. CONCLUSIONS:Among singletons without prior preterm birth diagnosed with short cervix (?25 mm), CL ?11 mm may identify a subgroup of patients at high risk for asymptomatic cervical dilation and poor perinatal outcome. Physical exam should be considered and adjunctive preterm birth prevention measures should be studied in singletons with CL ?11 mm.

Project description:Objective To develop a pre-pregnancy or first-trimester risk score to identify women at high risk of preterm birth. Study design In this retrospective cohort analysis, the sample was drawn from California singleton livebirths from 2007 to 2012 with linked birth certificate and hospital discharge records. The dataset was divided into a training (2/3 of sample) and a testing (1/3 of sample) set for discovery and validation. Predictive models for preterm birth using pre-pregnancy or first-trimester maternal factors were developed using backward stepwise logistic regression on a training dataset. A risk score for preterm birth was created for each pregnancy using beta-coefficients for each maternal factor remaining in the final multivariable model. Risk score utility was replicated in a testing dataset and by race/ethnicity and payer for prenatal care. Results The sample included 2,339,696 pregnancies divided into training and testing datasets. Twenty-three maternal risk factors were identified including several that were associated with a two or more increased odds of preterm birth (preexisting diabetes, preexisting hypertension, sickle cell anemia, and previous preterm birth). Approximately 40% of women with a risk score ? 3.0 in the training and testing samples delivered preterm (40.6% and 40.8%, respectively) compared to 3.1-3.3% of women with a risk score of 0.0 [odds ratio (OR) 13.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 10.7-15.8, training; OR 12.2, 95% CI 9.4-15.9, testing). Additionally, over 18% of women with a risk score ? 3.0 had an adverse outcome other than preterm birth. Conclusion Maternal factors that are identifiable prior to pregnancy or during the first-trimester can be used create a cumulative risk score to identify women at the lowest and highest risk for preterm birth regardless of race/ethnicity or socioeconomic status. Further, we found that this cumulative risk score could also identify women at risk for other adverse outcomes who did not have a preterm birth. The risk score is not an effective screening test, but does identify women at very high risk of a preterm birth.

Dataset Information

Timing of mid-trimester cervical length shortening in high-risk women.

Publications

Timing of mid-trimester cervical length shortening in high-risk women.

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