Dataset Information

Projected changes to growth and mortality of Hawaiian corals over the next 100 years.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Recent reviews suggest that the warming and acidification of ocean surface waters predicated by most accepted climate projections will lead to mass mortality and declining calcification rates of reef-building corals. This study investigates the use of modeling techniques to quantitatively examine rates of coral cover change due to these effects.

Methodology/principal findings

Broad-scale probabilities of change in shallow-water scleractinian coral cover in the Hawaiian Archipelago for years 2000-2099 A.D. were calculated assuming a single middle-of-the-road greenhouse gas emissions scenario. These projections were based on ensemble calculations of a growth and mortality model that used sea surface temperature (SST), atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)), observed coral growth (calcification) rates, and observed mortality linked to mass coral bleaching episodes as inputs. SST and CO(2) predictions were derived from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) multi-model dataset, statistically downscaled with historical data.

Conclusions/significance

The model calculations illustrate a practical approach to systematic evaluation of climate change effects on corals, and also show the effect of uncertainties in current climate predictions and in coral adaptation capabilities on estimated changes in coral cover. Despite these large uncertainties, this analysis quantitatively illustrates that a large decline in coral cover is highly likely in the 21(st) Century, but that there are significant spatial and temporal variances in outcomes, even under a single climate change scenario.

SUBMITTER: Hoeke RK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3066221 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Projected changes to growth and mortality of Hawaiian corals over the next 100 years.

Hoeke Ron K RK Jokiel Paul L PL Buddemeier Robert W RW Brainard Russell E RE

PloS one 20110329 3

<h4>Background</h4>Recent reviews suggest that the warming and acidification of ocean surface waters predicated by most accepted climate projections will lead to mass mortality and declining calcification rates of reef-building corals. This study investigates the use of modeling techniques to quantitatively examine rates of coral cover change due to these effects.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>Broad-scale probabilities of change in shallow-water scleractinian coral cover in the Hawaiian ...[more]

PMID: 21479235

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Project description:The rapid decline of a few Emberiza bunting species is increasing conservation concerns, especially in Asia. However, temporal changes in communities and populations of buntings, ones of the most common migratory songbirds in Korea, have not been quantitatively assessed. To understand how the status of buntings has changed over the past 100 years, we collated abundance data from museum collections and bird-banding records between 1910 and 2019. We also used presence-absence data for buntings collected by a nationwide census scheme between 1997 to 2012. Our analysis showed that bunting communities reconstructed from museum-specimen and bird-banding data were not significantly different; however, community composition differed over time. The Meadow (E. cioides), Yellow-throated (E. elegans), Black-faced (E. spodocephala), Rustic (E. rustica) and Chestnut Buntings (E. rutila), which are still common or were once common species, significantly affected the temporal changes in bunting community composition. There were no recent changes in the presence of Rustic and Chestnut Buntings since 1997, but they caused medium-term changes in the bunting community composition, suggesting that there was a sharp to moderate decline in their numbers in the past. The probability of the presence of six bunting species decreased annually, with the most prominent decline in two common breeders, the Meadow (-2.99%/year) and Yellow-throated Buntings (-1.82%/year). This finding suggests that breeding buntings in Korea are under high pressure, as are the migratory buntings. Moreover, despite its recent population decline, the Yellow-throated Bunting was still a major contributor to the community, suggesting that bunting diversity has also been deteriorating while bunting populations are shrinking. Long-term monitoring schemes across their distribution ranges, international cooperation for identifying major threats and key areas of conservation, and law enforcement against illegal hunting and habitat loss are strongly required to mitigate the on-going decline of buntings in Korea and Asia.

Dataset Information

Projected changes to growth and mortality of Hawaiian corals over the next 100 years.

Background

Methodology/principal findings

Conclusions/significance

Publications

Projected changes to growth and mortality of Hawaiian corals over the next 100 years.

Similar Datasets

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