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Collective response of human populations to large-scale emergencies.

ABSTRACT: Despite recent advances in uncovering the quantitative features of stationary human activity patterns, many applications, from pandemic prediction to emergency response, require an understanding of how these patterns change when the population encounters unfamiliar conditions. To explore societal response to external perturbations we identified real-time changes in communication and mobility patterns in the vicinity of eight emergencies, such as bomb attacks and earthquakes, comparing these with eight non-emergencies, like concerts and sporting events. We find that communication spikes accompanying emergencies are both spatially and temporally localized, but information about emergencies spreads globally, resulting in communication avalanches that engage in a significant manner the social network of eyewitnesses. These results offer a quantitative view of behavioral changes in human activity under extreme conditions, with potential long-term impact on emergency detection and response.

SUBMITTER: Bagrow JP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3068136 | biostudies-literature | 2011

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Collective response of human populations to large-scale emergencies.

Bagrow James P JP Wang Dashun D Barabási Albert-László AL

PloS one 20110330 3

Despite recent advances in uncovering the quantitative features of stationary human activity patterns, many applications, from pandemic prediction to emergency response, require an understanding of how these patterns change when the population encounters unfamiliar conditions. To explore societal response to external perturbations we identified real-time changes in communication and mobility patterns in the vicinity of eight emergencies, such as bomb attacks and earthquakes, comparing these with ...[more]

PMID: 21479206

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Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated rapid development of preparedness and response plans to quell transmission and prevent illness across the world. Increasingly, there is an appreciation of the need to consider equity issues in the development and implementation of these plans, not least with respect to gender, given the demonstrated differences in the impacts both of the disease and of control measures on men, women, and non-binary individuals. Humanitarian crises, and particularly those resulting from conflict or violence, exacerbate pre-existing gender inequality and discrimination. To this end, there is a particularly urgent need to assess the extent to which COVID-19 response plans, as developed for conflict-affected states and forcibly displaced populations, are gender responsive.MethodsUsing a multi-step selection process, we identified and analyzed 30 plans from states affected by conflict and those hosting forcibly displaced refugees and utilized an adapted version of the World Health Organization's Gender Responsive Assessment Scale (WHO-GRAS) to determine whether existing COVID-19 response plans were gender-negative, gender-blind, gender-sensitive, or gender-transformative.ResultsWe find that although few plans were gender-blind and none were gender-negative, no plans were gender-transformative. Most gender-sensitive plans only discuss issues specifically related to women (such as gender-based violence and reproductive health) rather than mainstream gender considerations throughout all sectors of policy planning.ConclusionsDespite overwhelming evidence about the importance of intentionally embedding gender considerations into the COVID-19 planning and response, none of the plans reviewed in this study were classified as 'gender transformative.' We use these results to make specific recommendations for how infectious disease control efforts, for COVID-19 and beyond, can better integrate gender considerations in humanitarian settings, and particularly those affected by violence or conflict.

Project description:BACKGROUND: Genetic analyses of human lice have shown that the current taxonomic classification of head lice (Pediculus humanus capitis) and body lice (Pediculus humanus humanus) does not reflect their phylogenetic organization. Three phylotypes of head lice A, B and C exist but body lice have been observed only in phylotype A. Head and body lice have different behaviours and only the latter have been involved in outbreaks of infectious diseases including epidemic typhus, trench fever and louse borne recurrent fever. Recent studies suggest that body lice arose several times from head louse populations. METHODS AND FINDINGS: By introducing a new genotyping technique, sequencing variable intergenic spacers which were selected from louse genomic sequence, we were able to evaluate the genotypic distribution of 207 human lice. Sequence variation of two intergenic spacers, S2 and S5, discriminated the 207 lice into 148 genotypes and sequence variation of another two intergenic spacers, PM1 and PM2, discriminated 174 lice into 77 genotypes. Concatenation of the four intergenic spacers discriminated a panel of 97 lice into 96 genotypes. These intergenic spacer sequence types were relatively specific geographically, and enabled us to identify two clusters in France, one cluster in Central Africa (where a large body louse outbreak has been observed) and one cluster in Russia. Interestingly, head and body lice were not genetically differentiated. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a hypothesis for the emergence of body lice, and suggest that humans with both low hygiene and head louse infestations provide an opportunity for head louse variants, able to ingest a larger blood meal (a required characteristic of body lice), to colonize clothing. If this hypothesis is ultimately supported, it would help to explain why poor human hygiene often coincides with outbreaks of body lice. Additionally, if head lice act as a reservoir for body lice, and that any social degradation in human populations may allow the formation of new populations of body lice, then head louse populations are potentially a greater threat to humans than previously assumed.

Project description:At the macroscale, the brain operates as a network of interconnected neuronal populations, which display coordinated rhythmic dynamics that support interareal communication. Understanding how stimulation of different brain areas impacts such activity is important for gaining basic insights into brain function and for further developing therapeutic neurmodulation. However, the complexity of brain structure and dynamics hinders predictions regarding the downstream effects of focal stimulation. More specifically, little is known about how the collective oscillatory regime of brain network activity-in concert with network structure-affects the outcomes of perturbations. Here, we combine human connectome data and biophysical modeling to begin filling these gaps. By tuning parameters that control collective system dynamics, we identify distinct states of simulated brain activity and investigate how the distributed effects of stimulation manifest at different dynamical working points. When baseline oscillations are weak, the stimulated area exhibits enhanced power and frequency, and due to network interactions, activity in this excited frequency band propagates to nearby regions. Notably, beyond these linear effects, we further find that focal stimulation causes more distributed modifications to interareal coherence in a band containing regions' baseline oscillation frequencies. Importantly, depending on the dynamical state of the system, these broadband effects can be better predicted by functional rather than structural connectivity, emphasizing a complex interplay between anatomical organization, dynamics, and response to perturbation. In contrast, when the network operates in a regime of strong regional oscillations, stimulation causes only slight shifts in power and frequency, and structural connectivity becomes most predictive of stimulation-induced changes in network activity patterns. In sum, this work builds upon and extends previous computational studies investigating the impacts of stimulation, and underscores the fact that both the stimulation site, and, crucially, the regime of brain network dynamics, can influence the network-wide responses to local perturbations.

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Collective response of human populations to large-scale emergencies.

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Collective response of human populations to large-scale emergencies.

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