Dataset Information

Clinical risk prediction for pre-eclampsia in nulliparous women: development of model in international prospective cohort.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

To develop a predictive model for pre-eclampsia based on clinical risk factors for nulliparous women and to identify a subgroup at increased risk, in whom specialist referral might be indicated.

Design

Prospective multicentre cohort.

Setting

Five centres in Auckland, New Zealand; Adelaide, Australia; Manchester and London, United Kingdom; and Cork, Republic of Ireland.

Participants

3572 "healthy" nulliparous women with a singleton pregnancy from a large international study; data on pregnancy outcome were available for 3529 (99%).

Main outcome measure

Pre-eclampsia defined as ≥ 140 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mm Hg, or both, on at least two occasions four hours apart after 20 weeks' gestation but before the onset of labour, or postpartum, with either proteinuria or any multisystem complication. Preterm pre-eclampsia was defined as women with pre-eclampsia delivered before 37(+0) weeks' gestation. In the stepwise logistic regression the comparison group was women without pre-eclampsia.

Results

Of the 3529 women, 186 (5.3%) developed pre-eclampsia, including 47 (1.3%) with preterm pre-eclampsia. Clinical risk factors at 14-16 weeks' gestation were age, mean arterial blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), family history of pre-eclampsia, family history of coronary heart disease, maternal birth weight, and vaginal bleeding for at least five days. Factors associated with reduced risk were a previous single miscarriage with the same partner, taking at least 12 months to conceive, high intake of fruit, cigarette smoking, and alcohol use in the first trimester. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), under internal validation, was 0.71. Addition of uterine artery Doppler indices did not improve performance (internal validation AUC 0.71). A framework for specialist referral was developed based on a probability of pre-eclampsia generated by the model of at least 15% or an abnormal uterine artery Doppler waveform in a subset of women with single risk factors. Nine per cent of nulliparous women would be referred for a specialist opinion, of whom 21% would develop pre-eclampsia. The relative risk for developing pre-eclampsia and preterm pre-eclampsia in women referred to a specialist compared with standard care was 5.5 and 12.2, respectively.

Conclusions

The ability to predict pre-eclampsia in healthy nulliparous women using clinical phenotype is modest and requires external validation in other populations. If validated, it could provide a personalised clinical risk profile for nulliparous women to which biomarkers could be added. Trial registration ACTRN12607000551493.

SUBMITTER: North RA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3072235 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundGuidelines recommend identifying in early pregnancy women at elevated risk of pre-eclampsia. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a pre-eclampsia risk prediction model for nulliparous women attending routine antenatal care "the Western Sydney (WS) model"; and to compare its performance with the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) risk factor-list approach for classifying women as high-risk.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study included all nulliparous women who gave birth in three public hospitals in the Western-Sydney-Local-Health-District, Australia 2011-2014. Using births from 2011 to 2012, multivariable logistic regression incorporated established maternal risk factors to develop and internally validate the WS model. The WS model was then externally validated using births from 2013 to 2014, assessing its discrimination and calibration. We fitted the final WS model for all births from 2011 to 2014, and compared its accuracy in predicting pre-eclampsia with the NICE approach.ResultsAmong 12,395 births to nulliparous women in 2011-2014, there were 293 (2.4%) pre-eclampsia events. The WS model included: maternal age, body mass index, ethnicity, multiple pregnancy, family history of pre-eclampsia, autoimmune disease, chronic hypertension and chronic renal disease. In the validation sample (6201 births), the model c-statistic was 0.70 (95% confidence interval 0.65-0.75). The observed:expected ratio for pre-eclampsia was 0.91, with a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test p-value of 0.20. In the entire study sample of 12,395 births, 374 (3.0%) women had a WS model-estimated pre-eclampsia risk ≥8%, the pre-specified risk-threshold for considering aspirin prophylaxis. Of these, 54 (14.4%) developed pre-eclampsia (sensitivity 18% (14-23), specificity 97% (97-98)). Using the NICE approach, 1173 (9.5%) women were classified as high-risk, of which 107 (9.1%) developed pre-eclampsia (sensitivity 37% (31-42), specificity 91% (91-92)). The final model showed similar accuracy to the NICE approach when using lower risk-threshold of ≥4% to classify women as high-risk for pre-eclampsia.ConclusionThe WS risk model that combines readily-available maternal characteristics achieved modest performance for prediction of pre-eclampsia in nulliparous women. The model did not outperform the NICE approach, but has the advantage of providing individualised absolute risk estimates, to assist with counselling, inform decisions for further testing, and consideration of aspirin prophylaxis.

Project description:ObjectiveA model that can predict reliably the risk of pre-eclampsia (PE)-related pregnancy complications does not exist. The aim of this study was to develop and validate internally a clinical prediction model to predict the risk of a composite outcome of PE-related maternal and fetal complications within 7, 14 and 30 days of testing in women with suspected or confirmed PE.MethodsThe data for this study were derived from a prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study on women with a singleton pregnancy and suspected or confirmed PE at 20 to < 37 weeks' gestation. For the development of the prediction model, the possible contribution of clinical and standard laboratory variables, as well as the biomarkers soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1), placental growth factor (PlGF) and their ratio, in the prediction of a composite outcome of PE-related complications, consisting of maternal and fetal adverse events within 7, 14 and 30 days, was explored using multivariable competing-risks regression analysis. The discriminative ability of the model was assessed using the concordance (c-) statistic. A bootstrap validation procedure with 500 replications was used to correct the estimate of the prediction model performance for optimism and to compute a shrinkage factor for the regression coefficients to correct for overfitting.ResultsAmong 384 women with suspected or confirmed PE, 96 (25%) had an adverse PE-related outcome at any time after hospital admission. Important predictors of adverse PE-related outcome included sFlt-1/PlGF ratio, gestational age at the time of biomarker measurement and protein-to-creatinine ratio as continuous variables. The c-statistics (corrected for optimism) for developing a PE-related complication within 7, 14 and 30 days were 0.89, 0.88 and 0.87, respectively. There was limited overfitting, as indicated by a shrinkage factor of 0.91.ConclusionsWe propose a simple clinical prediction model with good discriminative performance to predict PE-related complications. Determination of its usefulness in clinical practice awaits further investigation and external validation. © 2020 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Project description:IntroductionPre-eclampsia (PE) and intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) are two major pregnancy complications, related to chronic uteroplacental hypoperfusion. Nowadays, there is no screening or diagnostic test for uteroplacental vascularisation deficiency in pregnant women. Since 2004, 3 three-imensional power Doppler (3DPD) angiography has been used for the evaluation of uteroplacental vascularisation and three vascular indices are usually calculated: Vascularisation Index (VI), Flow Index (FI) and vascularisation-FI (VFI). A high intraobserver and interobserver reproducibility and a potential interest for placental function study were reported by our team and others.The main objective of our study is to determine differences in 3DPD indices at first trimester between pregnancies defined at their outcome as uncomplicated pregnancy, PE (mild and severe) and IUGR in nulliparous women.Methods and analysisThis is a national multicentre prospective cohort study conducted in four French maternity units. We expect to include 2200 women in a period of 36 months. The nulliparous pregnant women will be recruited during their first trimester consultation (11-13+6 gestation week (GW)).The 3DPD and uterine artery Doppler acquisition will be included in the current routine 11-13+6 GW ultrasound. Also, additional blood samples will be taken for biomarker analysis (PAPP-A and P1GF) and biological collection. Uteroplacental VIs (FI and VFI) will be measured. For each subgroup (uncomplicated pregnancy, PE and IUGR), mean values in 3DPD indices will be computed and compared using a pairwise t test with a Bonferroni correction p value adjustment.Ethics and disseminationThe study was approved by the French Ethics Committee, the Comité de Protection des Personnes SUD MEDITERRANEE IV on 13 February 2018 with reference number 17 12 03. The results of this study will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and will be presented at relevant conferences.Trial registration numberNCT03342014; Pre-results. PHRCN-16-0567.

Project description:BackgroundPre-eclampsia/eclampsia are leading causes of maternal mortality and morbidity, particularly in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs). We developed the miniPIERS risk prediction model to provide a simple, evidence-based tool to identify pregnant women in LMICs at increased risk of death or major hypertensive-related complications.Methods and findingsFrom 1 July 2008 to 31 March 2012, in five LMICs, data were collected prospectively on 2,081 women with any hypertensive disorder of pregnancy admitted to a participating centre. Candidate predictors collected within 24 hours of admission were entered into a step-wise backward elimination logistic regression model to predict a composite adverse maternal outcome within 48 hours of admission. Model internal validation was accomplished by bootstrapping and external validation was completed using data from 1,300 women in the Pre-eclampsia Integrated Estimate of RiSk (fullPIERS) dataset. Predictive performance was assessed for calibration, discrimination, and stratification capacity. The final miniPIERS model included: parity (nulliparous versus multiparous); gestational age on admission; headache/visual disturbances; chest pain/dyspnoea; vaginal bleeding with abdominal pain; systolic blood pressure; and dipstick proteinuria. The miniPIERS model was well-calibrated and had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC ROC) of 0.768 (95% CI 0.735-0.801) with an average optimism of 0.037. External validation AUC ROC was 0.713 (95% CI 0.658-0.768). A predicted probability ?25% to define a positive test classified women with 85.5% accuracy. Limitations of this study include the composite outcome and the broad inclusion criteria of any hypertensive disorder of pregnancy. This broad approach was used to optimize model generalizability.ConclusionsThe miniPIERS model shows reasonable ability to identify women at increased risk of adverse maternal outcomes associated with the hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. It could be used in LMICs to identify women who would benefit most from interventions such as magnesium sulphate, antihypertensives, or transportation to a higher level of care.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:Abnormal placentation in early pregnancy may play a role in the pathogenesis of pre-eclampsia. Human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) regulates placental development and angiogenesis and may affect the ratio of soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) and placental growth factor (PlGF) in the serum. The aims of this study were to investigate the association of total hCG with the risk of pre-eclampsia and to examine the potential effect of pro- and anti-angiogenic factors on this association. METHODS:This was a population-based prospective cohort study of 7754 women with a singleton pregnancy. Total hCG was measured in the first available sample (median gestational age, 14.4 weeks; 95% range, 10.1-26.1 weeks) and sFlt-1 and PlGF concentrations in early (< 18 weeks; median, 13.2 weeks; 95% range, 9.6-17.6 weeks) and in mid- (18-25 weeks; median, 20.4 weeks; 95% range, 18.5-23.5 weeks) pregnancy. We tested the association of hCG concentration and risk of pre-eclampsia using regression analysis, adjusting for maternal age, ethnicity, body mass index, parity, education level, smoking status and fetal sex. Additionally, we assessed whether this association was affected by the sFlt-1/PlGF ratio. RESULTS:High hCG concentration was associated with a 1.5-2.7-fold increased risk of pre-eclampsia (P = 0.0001), depending on the cut-off used, and with increased sFlt-1/PlGF ratio during early pregnancy (P < 0.0001). The association between high hCG and pre-eclampsia attenuated by roughly 40% after adjustment for early-pregnancy sFlt-1/PlGF ratio (β-estimate change from 0.19 ± 0.10 (P = 0.052) to 0.12 ± 0.10 (P = 0.22)). CONCLUSIONS:High total hCG concentration in early pregnancy is associated with an increased risk of pre-eclampsia. The effect of high hCG concentration on the balance between pro- and anti-angiogenic factors during pregnancy may have a role in the pathophysiology of pre-eclampsia. © 2019 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Project description:BackgroundIn the first year after childbirth, 94% of women experience one or more major health problems (urinary incontinence, faecal incontinence, perineal pain, back pain). Difficulties in intimate partner relationships and changes affecting sexual health are also common. The aim of this study is to investigate changes in women's health from early pregnancy until four years after the birth of a first child.Methods/designThe Maternal Health Study is a longitudinal study designed to fill in some of the gaps in current research evidence regarding women's physical and psychological health and recovery after childbirth. A prospective pregnancy cohort of >1500 nulliparous women has been recruited in early pregnancy at six metropolitan public hospitals in Melbourne, Australia between April 2003 and December 2005. In the first phase of the study participants are being followed up at 30-32 weeks gestation in pregnancy, and at three, six, nine, 12 and 18 months postpartum using a combination of self-administered questionnaires and telephone interviews. Women consenting to extended follow-up (phase 2) will be followed up six and 12 months after any subsequent births and when their first child is four years old. Study instruments incorporate assessment of the frequency and severity of urinary and bowel symptoms, sexual health issues, perineal and abdominal pain, depression and intimate partner violence. Pregnancy and birth outcome data will be obtained by review of hospital case notes.DiscussionFeatures of the study which distinguish it from prior research include: the capacity to identify incident cases of morbidity and clustering of health problems; a large enough sample to detect clinically important differences in maternal health outcomes associated with the method of birth; careful exposure measurement involving manual abstraction of data from medical records in order to explore mediating factors and possible causal pathways; and use of a variety of strategies to improve ascertainment of health outcomes.