Implementation of G-computation on a simulated data set: demonstration of a causal inference technique.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Snowden JM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3105284 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Recent work has considerably advanced the definition, identification and estimation of controlled direct, and natural direct and indirect effects in causal mediation analysis. Despite the various estimation methods and statistical routines being developed, a unified approach for effect estimation under different effect decomposition scenarios is still needed for epidemiologic research. G-computation offers such unification and has been used for total effect and joint controlled direct effect estimation settings, involving different types of exposure and outcome variables. In this study, we demonstrate the utility of parametric g-computation in estimating various components of the total effect, including (1) natural direct and indirect effects, (2) standard and stochastic controlled direct effects, and (3) reference and mediated interaction effects, using Monte Carlo simulations in standard statistical software. For each study subject, we estimated their nested potential outcomes corresponding to the (mediated) effects of an intervention on the exposure wherein the mediator was allowed to attain the value it would have under a possible counterfactual exposure intervention, under a pre-specified distribution of the mediator independent of any causes, or under a fixed controlled value. A final regression of the potential outcome on the exposure intervention variable was used to compute point estimates and bootstrap was used to obtain confidence intervals. Through contrasting different potential outcomes, this analytical framework provides an intuitive way of estimating effects under the recently introduced 3- and 4-way effect decomposition. This framework can be extended to complex multivariable and longitudinal mediation settings.
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Project description:The causal effects of Apolipoprotein E $\epsilon4$ allele (APOE) on late-onset Alzheimer's disease (AD) and death are complicated to define because AD may occur under one intervention but not under the other, and because AD occurrence may affect age of death. In this article, this dual outcome scenario is studied using the semi-competing risks framework for time-to-event data. Two event times are of interest: a nonterminal event time (age at AD diagnosis), and a terminal event time (age at death). AD diagnosis time is observed only if it precedes death, which may occur before or after AD. We propose new estimands for capturing the causal effect of APOE on AD and death. Our proposal is based on a stratification of the population with respect to the order of the two events. We present a novel assumption utilizing the time-to-event nature of the data, which is more flexible than the often-invoked monotonicity assumption. We derive results on partial identifiability, suggest a sensitivity analysis approach, and give conditions under which full identification is possible. Finally, we present and implement nonparametric and semiparametric estimation methods under right-censored semi-competing risks data for studying the complex effect of APOE on AD and death.
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Project description:BackgroundImplementation of multifaceted interventions typically involves many diverse elements working together in interrelated ways, including intervention components, implementation strategies, and features of local context. Given this real-world complexity, implementation researchers may be interested in a new mathematical, cross-case method called Coincidence Analysis (CNA) that has been designed explicitly to support causal inference, answer research questions about combinations of conditions that are minimally necessary or sufficient for an outcome, and identify the possible presence of multiple causal paths to an outcome. CNA can be applied as a standalone method or in conjunction with other approaches and can reveal new empirical findings related to implementation that might otherwise have gone undetected.MethodsWe applied CNA to a publicly available dataset from Sweden with county-level data on human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination campaigns and vaccination uptake in 2012 and 2014 and then compared CNA results to the published regression findings.ResultsThe original regression analysis found vaccination uptake was positively associated only with the availability of vaccines in schools. CNA produced different findings and uncovered an additional solution path: high vaccination rates were achieved by either (1) offering the vaccine in all schools or (2) a combination of offering the vaccine in some schools and media coverage.ConclusionsCNA offers a new comparative approach for researchers seeking to understand how implementation conditions work together and link to outcomes.
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Project description:Inference of active regulatory mechanisms underlying specific molecular and environmental perturbations is essential for understanding cellular response. The success of inference algorithms relies on the quality and coverage of the underlying network of regulator-gene interactions. Several commercial platforms provide large and manually curated regulatory networks and functionality to perform inference on these networks. Adaptation of such platforms for open-source academic applications has been hindered by the lack of availability of accurate, high-coverage networks of regulatory interactions and integration of efficient causal inference algorithms. In this work, we present CIE, an integrated platform for causal inference of active regulatory mechanisms form differential gene expression data. Using a regularized Gaussian Graphical Model, we construct a transcriptional regulatory network by integrating publicly available ChIP-seq experiments with gene-expression data from tissue-specific RNA-seq experiments. Our GGM approach identifies high confidence transcription factor (TF)-gene interactions and annotates the interactions with information on mode of regulation (activation vs. repression). Benchmarks against manually curated databases of TF-gene interactions show that our method can accurately detect mode of regulation. We demonstrate the ability of our platform to identify active transcriptional regulators by using controlled in vitro overexpression and stem-cell differentiation studies and utilize our method to investigate transcriptional mechanisms of fibroblast phenotypic plasticity.
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Project description: Not available
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Project description:It is very common in instrumental variable studies for there to be missing instrument data. For example, in the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study one can use genotype data as a Mendelian randomization-style instrument, but this information is often missing when subjects do not contribute saliva samples, or when the genotyping platform output is ambiguous. Here we review missing-at-random assumptions one can use to identify instrumental variable causal effects, and discuss various approaches for estimation and inference. We consider likelihood-based methods, regression and weighting estimators, and doubly robust estimators. The likelihood-based methods yield the most precise inference, and are optimal under the model assumptions, while the doubly robust estimators can attain the nonparametric efficiency bound while allowing flexible nonparametric estimation of nuisance functions (e.g., instrument propensity scores). The regression and weighting estimators can sometimes be easiest to describe and implement. Our main contribution is an extensive review of this wide array of estimators under varied missing-at-random assumptions, along with discussion of asymptotic properties and inferential tools. We also implement many of the estimators in an analysis of the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, to study effects of impaired cognitive functioning on depression.
| S-EPMC8025985 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Although the challenge of gene regulatory network inference has been studied for more than a decade, it is still unclear how well network inference methods work when applied to real data. Attempts to benchmark these methods on experimental data have yielded mixed results, in which sometimes even the best methods fail to outperform random guessing, and in other cases they perform reasonably well. So, one of the most valuable contributions one can currently make to the field of network inference is to benchmark methods on experimental data for which the true underlying network is already known, and report the results so that we can get a clearer picture of their efficacy. In this paper, we report results from the first, to our knowledge, benchmarking of network inference methods on single cell E. coli transcriptomic data. We report a moderate level of accuracy for the methods, better than random chance but still far from perfect. We also find that some methods that were quite strong and accurate on microarray and bulk RNA-seq data did not perform as well on the single cell data. Additionally, we benchmark a simple network inference method (Pearson correlation), on data generated through computer simulations in order to draw conclusions about general best practices in network inference studies. We predict that network inference would be more accurate using proteomic data rather than transcriptomic data, which could become relevant if highthroughput proteomic experimental methods are developed in the future. We also show through simulations that using a simplified model of gene expression that skips the mRNA step tends to substantially overestimate the accuracy of network inference methods, and advise against using this model for future in silico benchmarking studies.
| S-EPMC10197678 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Networks are widely used as structural summaries of biochemical systems. Statistical estimation of networks is usually based on linear or discrete models. However, the dynamics of biochemical systems are generally non-linear, suggesting that suitable non-linear formulations may offer gains with respect to causal network inference and aid in associated prediction problems.We present a general framework for network inference and dynamical prediction using time course data that is rooted in non-linear biochemical kinetics. This is achieved by considering a dynamical system based on a chemical reaction graph with associated kinetic parameters. Both the graph and kinetic parameters are treated as unknown; inference is carried out within a Bayesian framework. This allows prediction of dynamical behavior even when the underlying reaction graph itself is unknown or uncertain. Results, based on (i) data simulated from a mechanistic model of mitogen-activated protein kinase signaling and (ii) phosphoproteomic data from cancer cell lines, demonstrate that non-linear formulations can yield gains in causal network inference and permit dynamical prediction and uncertainty quantification in the challenging setting where the reaction graph is unknown.MATLAB R2014a software is available to download from warwick.ac.uk/chrisoates.Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:The importance of randomization in clinical trials has long been acknowledged for avoiding selection bias. Yet, bias concerns re-emerge with selective attrition. This study takes a causal inference perspective in addressing distinct scenarios of missing outcome data (MCAR, MAR and MNAR). METHODS:This study adopts a causal inference perspective in providing an overview of empirical strategies to estimate the average treatment effect, improve precision of the estimator, and to test whether the underlying identifying assumptions hold. We propose to use Random Forest Lee Bounds (RFLB) to address selective attrition and to obtain more precise average treatment effect intervals. RESULTS:When assuming MCAR or MAR, the often untenable identifying assumptions with respect to causal inference can hardly be verified empirically. Instead, missing outcome data in clinical trials should be considered as potentially non-random unobserved events (i.e. MNAR). Using simulated attrition data, we show how average treatment effect intervals can be tightened considerably using RFLB, by exploiting both continuous and discrete attrition predictor variables. CONCLUSIONS:Bounding approaches should be used to acknowledge selective attrition in randomized clinical trials in acknowledging the resulting uncertainty with respect to causal inference. As such, Random Forest Lee Bounds estimates are more informative than point estimates obtained assuming MCAR or MAR.
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