Dataset Information

Estimating the disease burden of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) from surveillance and household surveys in Greece.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The aim of this study was to assess the disease burden of the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in Greece.

Methodology/principal findings

Data on influenza-like illness (ILI), collected through cross-sectional nationwide telephone surveys of 1,000 households in Greece repeated for 25 consecutive weeks, were combined with data from H1N1 virologic surveillance to estimate the incidence and the clinical attack rate (CAR) of influenza A(H1N1). Alternative definitions of ILI (cough or sore throat and fever>38°C [ILI-38] or fever 37.1-38°C [ILI-37]) were used to estimate the number of symptomatic infections. The infection attack rate (IAR) was approximated using estimates from published studies on the frequency of fever in infected individuals. Data on H1N1 morbidity and mortality were used to estimate ICU admission and case fatality (CFR) rates. The epidemic peaked on week 48/2009 with approximately 750-1,500 new cases/100,000 population per week, depending on ILI-38 or ILI-37 case definition, respectively. By week 6/2010, 7.1%-15.6% of the population in Greece was estimated to be symptomatically infected with H1N1. Children 5-19 years represented the most affected population group (CAR:27%-54%), whereas individuals older than 64 years were the least affected (CAR:0.6%-2.2%). The IAR (95% CI) of influenza A(H1N1) was estimated to be 19.7% (13.3%, 26.1%). Per 1,000 symptomatic cases, based on ILI-38 case definition, 416 attended health services, 108 visited hospital emergency departments and 15 were admitted to hospitals. ICU admission rate and CFR were 37 and 17.5 per 100,000 symptomatic cases or 13.4 and 6.3 per 100,000 infections, respectively.

Conclusions/significance

Influenza A(H1N1) infected one fifth and caused symptomatic infection in up to 15% of the Greek population. Although individuals older than 65 years were the least affected age group in terms of attack rate, they had 55 and 185 times higher risk of ICU admission and CFR, respectively.

SUBMITTER: Sypsa V

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3111416 | biostudies-literature | 2011

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Estimating the disease burden of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) from surveillance and household surveys in Greece.

Sypsa Vana V Bonovas Stefanos S Tsiodras Sotirios S Baka Agoritsa A Efstathiou Panos P Malliori Meni M Panagiotopoulos Takis T Nikolakopoulos Ilias I Hatzakis Angelos A

PloS one 20110609 6

<h4>Background</h4>The aim of this study was to assess the disease burden of the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in Greece.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>Data on influenza-like illness (ILI), collected through cross-sectional nationwide telephone surveys of 1,000 households in Greece repeated for 25 consecutive weeks, were combined with data from H1N1 virologic surveillance to estimate the incidence and the clinical attack rate (CAR) of influenza A(H1N1). Alternative definitions of ILI ( ...[more]

PMID: 21694769

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Project description:BackgroundAs of June 11, 2009, a total of 17,855 probable or confirmed cases of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) had been reported in the United States. Risk factors for transmission remain largely uncharacterized. We characterize the risk factors and describe the transmission of the virus within households.MethodsProbable and confirmed cases of infection with the 2009 H1N1 virus in the United States were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with the use of a standardized case form. We investigated transmission of infection in 216 households--including 216 index patients and their 600 household contacts--in which the index patient was the first case patient and complete information on symptoms and age was available for all household members.ResultsAn acute respiratory illness developed in 78 of 600 household contacts (13%). In 156 households (72% of the 216 households), an acute respiratory illness developed in none of the household contacts; in 46 households (21%), illness developed in one contact; and in 14 households (6%), illness developed in more than one contact. The proportion of household contacts in whom acute respiratory illness developed decreased with the size of the household, from 28% in two-member households to 9% in six-member households. Household contacts 18 years of age or younger were twice as susceptible as those 19 to 50 years of age (relative susceptibility, 1.96; Bayesian 95% credible interval, 1.05 to 3.78; P=0.005), and household contacts older than 50 years of age were less susceptible than those who were 19 to 50 years of age (relative susceptibility, 0.17; 95% credible interval, 0.02 to 0.92; P=0.03). Infectivity did not vary with age. The mean time between the onset of symptoms in a case patient and the onset of symptoms in the household contacts infected by that patient was 2.6 days (95% credible interval, 2.2 to 3.5).ConclusionsThe transmissibility of the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus in households is lower than that seen in past pandemics. Most transmissions occur soon before or after the onset of symptoms in a case patient.

Project description:BackgroundIn April 2009, a novel triple-reassortant swine influenza A H1N1 virus ("A/H1N1pdm"; also known as SOIV) was detected and spread globally as the first influenza pandemic of the 21(st) century. Sequencing has since been conducted at an unprecedented rate globally in order to monitor the diversification of this emergent virus and to track mutations that may affect virus behavior.Methodology/principal findingsBy Sanger sequencing, we determined consensus whole-genome sequences for A/H1N1pdm viruses sampled nationwide in Canada over 33 weeks during the 2009 first and second pandemic waves. A total of 235 virus genomes sampled from unique subjects were analyzed, providing insight into the temporal and spatial trajectory of A/H1N1pdm lineages within Canada. Three clades (2, 3, and 7) were identifiable within the first two weeks of A/H1N1pdm appearance, with clades 5 and 6 appearing thereafter; further diversification was not apparent. Only two viral sites displayed evidence of adaptive evolution, located in hemagglutinin (HA) corresponding to D222 in the HA receptor-binding site, and to E374 at HA2-subunit position 47. Among the Canadian sampled viruses, we observed notable genetic diversity (1.47 x 10?³ amino acid substitutions per site) in the gene encoding PB1, particularly within the viral genomic RNA (vRNA)-binding domain (residues 493-757). This genome data set supports the conclusion that A/H1N1pdm is evolving but not excessively relative to other H1N1 influenza A viruses. Entropy analysis was used to investigate whether any mutated A/H1N1pdm protein residues were associated with infection severity; however no virus genotypes were observed to trend with infection severity. One virus that harboured heterozygote coding mutations, including PB2 D567D/G, was attributed to a severe and potentially mixed infection; yet the functional significance of this PB2 mutation remains unknown.Conclusions/significanceThese findings contribute to enhanced understanding of Influenza A/H1N1pdm viral dynamics.

Project description:BackgroundInternet-based surveillance systems to monitor influenza-like illness (ILI) have advantages over traditional (physician-based) reporting systems, as they can potentially monitor a wider range of cases (i.e. including those that do not seek care). However, the requirement for participants to have internet access and to actively participate calls into question the representativeness of the data. Such systems have been in place in a number of European countries over the last few years, and in July 2009 this was extended to the UK. Here we present results of this survey with the aim of assessing the reliability of the data, and to evaluate methods to correct for possible biases.MethodsInternet-based monitoring of ILI was launched near the peak of the first wave of the UK H1N1v influenza pandemic. We compared the recorded ILI incidence with physician-recorded incidence and an estimate of the true number of cases over the course of the epidemic. We also compared overall attack rates. The effect of using different ILI definitions and alternative denominator assumptions on incidence estimates was explored.ResultsThe crude incidence measured by the internet-based system appears to be influenced by individuals who participated only once in the survey and who appeared more likely to be ill. This distorted the overall incidence trend. Concentrating on individuals who reported more than once results in a time series of ILI incidence that matches the trend of case estimates reasonably closely, with a correlation of 0.713 (P-value: 0.0001, 95% CI: 0.435, 0.867). Indeed, the internet-based system appears to give a better estimate of the relative height of the two waves of the UK pandemic than the physician-recorded incidence. The overall attack rate is, however, higher than other estimates, at about 16% when compared with a model-based estimate of 6%.ConclusionInternet-based monitoring of ILI can capture the trends in case numbers if appropriate weighting is used to correct for differential response. The overall level of incidence is, however, difficult to measure. Internet-based systems may be a useful adjunct to existing ILI surveillance systems as they capture cases that do not necessarily contact health care. However, further research is required before they can be used to accurately assess the absolute level of incidence in the community.

Project description:BACKGROUND:The mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic remains unclear in many countries due to delays in reporting of death statistics. We estimate the age- and cause-specific excess mortality impact of the pandemic in France, relative to that of other countries and past epidemic and pandemic seasons. METHODS:We applied Serfling and Poisson excess mortality approaches to model weekly age- and cause-specific mortality rates from June 1969 through May 2010 in France. Indicators of influenza activity, time trends, and seasonal terms were included in the models. We also reviewed the literature for country-specific estimates of 2009 pandemic excess mortality rates to characterize geographical differences in the burden of this pandemic. RESULTS:The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 1.0 (95% Confidence Intervals (CI) 0.2-1.9) excess respiratory deaths per 100,000 population in France, compared to rates per 100,000 of 44 (95% CI 43-45) for the A/H3N2 pandemic and 2.9 (95% CI 2.3-3.7) for average inter-pandemic seasons. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic had a 10.6-fold higher impact than inter-pandemic seasons in people aged 5-24 years and 3.8-fold lower impact among people over 65 years. CONCLUSIONS:The 2009 pandemic in France had low mortality impact in most age groups, relative to past influenza seasons, except in school-age children and young adults. The historical A/H3N2 pandemic was associated with much larger mortality impact than the 2009 pandemic, across all age groups and outcomes. Our 2009 pandemic excess mortality estimates for France fall within the range of previous estimates for high-income regions. Based on the analysis of several mortality outcomes and comparison with laboratory-confirmed 2009/H1N1 deaths, we conclude that cardio-respiratory and all-cause mortality lack precision to accurately measure the impact of this pandemic in high-income settings and that use of more specific mortality outcomes is important to obtain reliable age-specific estimates.

Dataset Information

Estimating the disease burden of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) from surveillance and household surveys in Greece.

Background

Methodology/principal findings

Conclusions/significance

Publications

Estimating the disease burden of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) from surveillance and household surveys in Greece.

Similar Datasets

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