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Causal assessment of surrogacy in a meta-analysis of colorectal cancer trials.

ABSTRACT: When the true end points (T) are difficult or costly to measure, surrogate markers (S) are often collected in clinical trials to help predict the effect of the treatment (Z). There is great interest in understanding the relationship among S, T, and Z. A principal stratification (PS) framework has been proposed by Frangakis and Rubin (2002) to study their causal associations. In this paper, we extend the framework to a multiple trial setting and propose a Bayesian hierarchical PS model to assess surrogacy. We apply the method to data from a large collection of colon cancer trials in which S and T are binary. We obtain the trial-specific causal measures among S, T, and Z, as well as their overall population-level counterparts that are invariant across trials. The method allows for information sharing across trials and reduces the nonidentifiability problem. We examine the frequentist properties of our model estimates and the impact of the monotonicity assumption using simulations. We also illustrate the challenges in evaluating surrogacy in the counterfactual framework that result from nonidentifiability.

SUBMITTER: Li Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3114655 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Causal assessment of surrogacy in a meta-analysis of colorectal cancer trials.

Li Yun Y Taylor Jeremy M G JM Elliott Michael R MR Sargent Daniel J DJ

Biostatistics (Oxford, England) 20110120 3

When the true end points (T) are difficult or costly to measure, surrogate markers (S) are often collected in clinical trials to help predict the effect of the treatment (Z). There is great interest in understanding the relationship among S, T, and Z. A principal stratification (PS) framework has been proposed by Frangakis and Rubin (2002) to study their causal associations. In this paper, we extend the framework to a multiple trial setting and propose a Bayesian hierarchical PS model to assess ...[more]

PMID: 21252079

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Project description:BackgroundThe international Intermediate Clinical Endpoints in Cancer of the Prostate working group has established metastasis-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival in localised prostate cancer based on the findings of 19 predominantly radiotherapy-based trials. We sought to comprehensively assess aggregate trial-level performance of commonly reported intermediate clinical endpoints across all randomised trials in localised prostate cancer.MethodsFor this meta-analysis, we searched PubMed for all trials in localised or biochemically recurrent prostate cancer published between Jan 1, 1970, and Jan 15, 2020. Eligible trials had to be randomised, therapeutic, reporting overall survival and at least one intermediate clinical endpoint, and with a sample size of at least 70 participants. Trials of metastatic disease were excluded. Intermediate clinical endpoints included biochemical failure, local failure, distant metastases, biochemical failure-free survival, progression-free survival, and metastasis-free survival. Candidacy for surrogacy was assessed using the second condition of the meta-analytical approach (ie, correlation of the treatment effect of the intermediate clinical endpoint and overall survival), using R2 weighted by the inverse variance of the log intermediate clinical endpoint hazard ratio. The intermediate clinical endpoint was deemed to be a surrogate for overall survival if R2 was 0·7 or greater.Findings75 trials (53 631 patients) were included in our analysis. Median follow-up was 9·1 years (IQR 5·7-10·6). Biochemical failure (R2 0·38 [95% CI 0·11-0·64]), biochemical failure-free survival (R2 0·12 [0·0030-0·33]), biochemical failure and clinical failure (R2 0·28 [0·0045-0·65]), and local failure (R2 0·085 [0·00-0·37]) correlated poorly with overall survival. Progression-free survival (R2 0·46 [95% CI 0·22-0·67]) showed moderate correlation with overall survival, and metastasis-free survival (R2 0·78 [0·59-0·89]) correlated strongly.InterpretationIntermediate clinical endpoints based on biochemical and local failure did not meet the second condition of the meta-analytical approach and are not surrogate endpoints for overall survival in localised prostate cancer. Our findings validate metastasis-free survival as the only identified surrogate endpoint for overall survival to date.FundingProstate Cancer Foundation and National Institutes of Health.

Project description:Background Chinese herbal medicines reportedly increase efficacy and minimize toxicity of chemotherapy; however, little attention has been paid to how poor study quality can bias outcomes. Methods We systematically searched MEDLINE, TCMLARS, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library for randomized controlled trials of Chinese herbal medicines combined with fluorouracil-based chemotherapy compared with the same chemotherapy alone. We screened for eligibility, extracted data, and pooled data with random-effects meta-analysis. Outcome measures were survival, toxicity, tumor response, performance status, quality of life, and Cochrane Risk of Bias (ROB) criteria to critically evaluate the quality of reporting in the randomized trials included in the meta-analysis. Results We found 36 potentially eligible studies, with only 3 (those with low ROB) qualifying for meta-analysis. Two reported chemotherapy-related diarrhea reduced by 57% (relative risk [RR] = 0.43; 95% CI = 0.19-1.01; I(2) test for variation in RR due to heterogeneity = 0.0%), with nonsignificant results. Two reported white blood cell toxicity reduced by 66% (RR = 0.34; 95% CI = 0.16-0.72; I(2) test for variation in RR due to heterogeneity = 0.0%), with statistically significant results. Stratifying analysis by studies with high versus low ROB, we found substantial overestimation of benefit: Studies with high ROB overestimated by nearly 2-fold reduction of platelet toxicity by Chinese herbal medicines (RR = 0.35, 95% CI = 0.15-0.84 vs RR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.11-3.92). Studies with high ROB overestimated by nearly 2-fold reduction of vomiting toxicity (RR = 0.45, 95% CI = 0.33-0.61 vs RR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.48-1.58). And, studies with high ROB overestimated by 21% the reduction in diarrhea toxicity (RR = 0.34, 95% CI = 0.20-0.58 vs RR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.19-1.01). Studies with high ROB also overestimated by 16% improvement in tumor response (RR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.18-1.63 vs RR = 1.20; 95% CI = 0.81-1.79). Not accounting for ROB would have exaggerated evidence of benefit and failed to detect nonsignificance of results. Conclusions In the present analysis, involving 36 studies, 2593 patients, 20 outcomes, 36 medical institutions, and 271 named research authors, 92% of the data points were from studies at high ROB. Given the poor quality of the data in studies identified, it cannot be concluded whether combining Chinese herbs with chemotherapy reduces toxicity of chemotherapy.

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Project description:Physicians and investigators have sought to determine the relationship between body mass index (BMI [calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared]) and colorectal cancer (CRC) outcomes, but methodologic limitations including sampling selection bias, reverse causality, and collider bias have prevented the ability to draw definitive conclusions.To evaluate the association of BMI at the time of, and following, colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosis with mortality in a complete population using causal diagrams.This retrospective observational study with prospectively collected data included a cohort of 3408 men and women, ages 18 to 80 years, from the Kaiser Permanente Northern California population, who were diagnosed with stage I to III CRC between 2006 and 2011 and who also had surgery.Body mass index at diagnosis and 15 months following diagnosis.Hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality and CRC-specific mortality compared with normal-weight patients, adjusted for sociodemographics, disease severity, treatment, and prediagnosis BMI.This study investigated a cohort of 3408 men and women ages 18 to 80 years diagnosed with stage I to III CRC between 2006 and 2011 who also had surgery. At-diagnosis BMI was associated with all-cause mortality in a nonlinear fashion, with patients who were underweight (BMI <18.5; HR, 2.65; 95% CI, 1.63-4.31) and patients who were class II or III obese (BMI ?35; HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 0.89-1.98) exhibiting elevated mortality risks, compared with patients who were low-normal weight (BMI 18.5 to <23). In contrast, patients who were high-normal weight (BMI 23 to <25; HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.56-1.06), low-overweight (BMI 25 to <28; HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.55-1.04), and high-overweight (BMI 28 to <30; HR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.35-0.77) had lower mortality risks, and patients who were class I obese (BMI 30 to <35) showed no difference in risk. Spline analysis confirmed a U-shaped relationship in participants with lowest mortality at a BMI of 28. Associations with CRC-specific mortality were similar. Associations of postdiagnosis BMI and mortality were also similar, but patients who were class I obese had significantly lower all-cause and cancer-specific mortality risks.In this study, body mass index at the time of diagnosis and following diagnosis of CRC was associated with mortality risk. Though evidence shows that exercise in patients with cancer should be encouraged, findings suggest that recommendations for weight loss in the immediate postdiagnosis period among patients with CRC who are overweight may be unwarranted.

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Causal assessment of surrogacy in a meta-analysis of colorectal cancer trials.

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Causal assessment of surrogacy in a meta-analysis of colorectal cancer trials.

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