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Time to evolve? Potential evolutionary responses of fraser river sockeye salmon to climate change and effects on persistence.

ABSTRACT: Evolutionary adaptation affects demographic resilience to climate change but few studies have attempted to project changes in selective pressures or quantify impacts of trait responses on population dynamics and extinction risk. We used a novel individual-based model to explore potential evolutionary changes in migration timing and the consequences for population persistence in sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in the Fraser River, Canada, under scenarios of future climate warming. Adult sockeye salmon are highly sensitive to increases in water temperature during their arduous upriver migration, raising concerns about the fate of these ecologically, culturally, and commercially important fish in a warmer future. Our results suggest that evolution of upriver migration timing could allow these salmon to avoid increasingly frequent stressful temperatures, with the odds of population persistence increasing in proportion to the trait heritability and phenotypic variance. With a simulated 2°C increase in average summer river temperatures by 2100, adult migration timing from the ocean to the river advanced by ?10 days when the heritability was 0.5, while the risk of quasi-extinction was only 17% of that faced by populations with zero evolutionary potential (i.e., heritability fixed at zero). The rates of evolution required to maintain persistence under simulated scenarios of moderate to rapid warming are plausible based on estimated heritabilities and rates of microevolution of timing traits in salmon and related species, although further empirical work is required to assess potential genetic and ecophysiological constraints on phenological adaptation. These results highlight the benefits to salmon management of maintaining evolutionary potential within populations, in addition to conserving key habitats and minimizing additional stressors where possible, as a means to build resilience to ongoing climate change. More generally, they demonstrate the importance and feasibility of considering evolutionary processes, in addition to ecology and demography, when projecting population responses to environmental change.

SUBMITTER: Reed TE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3125159 | biostudies-literature | 2011

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Time to evolve? Potential evolutionary responses of fraser river sockeye salmon to climate change and effects on persistence.

Reed Thomas E TE Schindler Daniel E DE Hague Merran J MJ Patterson David A DA Meir Eli E Waples Robin S RS Hinch Scott G SG

PloS one 20110628 6

Evolutionary adaptation affects demographic resilience to climate change but few studies have attempted to project changes in selective pressures or quantify impacts of trait responses on population dynamics and extinction risk. We used a novel individual-based model to explore potential evolutionary changes in migration timing and the consequences for population persistence in sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in the Fraser River, Canada, under scenarios of future climate warming. Adult sockeye ...[more]

PMID: 21738573

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Project description:Infectious diseases may contribute to declines in Fraser River Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) stocks, but a clear knowledge gap exists around which infectious agents and diseases are important. This study was conducted to: (1) determine the presence and prevalence of 46 infectious agents in juvenile Fraser River Sockeye salmon, and (2) evaluate spatial patterns in prevalence and burden over initial seaward migration, contrasting patterns between 2 years of average and poor productivity. In total, 2,006 out-migrating Sockeye salmon were collected from four regions along their migration trajectory in British Columbia, in 2012 and 2013. High-throughput microfluidics quantitative PCR was employed for simultaneous quantitation of 46 different infectious agents. Twenty-six agents were detected at least once, including nine with prevalence >5%. Candidatus Brachiomonas cysticola, Myxobolus arcticus, and Pacific salmon parvovirus were the most prevalent agents. Infectious agent diversity and burden increased consistently upon smolts entry into the ocean, but they did not substantially change afterwards. Notably, both freshwater- and saltwater-transmitted agents were more prevalent in 2013 than in 2012, leading to an overall higher infection burden in the first two sampling regions. A reduction in the prevalence of two agents, erythrocytic necrosis virus and Paraneuclospora theridion, was observed between regions 2 and 3, which was speculated to be associated with mortality during the 1st month at sea. The most prevalent infectious agents were all naturally occurring. In a small number of samples (0.9%), seven agents were only detected around and after salmon farming regions, including four important pathogens: piscine orthoreovirus, Piscirickettsia salmonis, Tenacibaculum maritimum, and Moritella viscosa. As the first synoptic survey of infectious agents in juvenile Sockeye salmon in British Columbia, this study provides the necessary baseline for further research on the most prevalent infectious agents and their potential pathogenicity, which may adversely affect the productivity of valuable Sockeye salmon stocks. In addition, our findings are informative to the decision makers involved in conservation programs.

Project description:In 2015, the Pacific marine heat wave, low river flows, and record high water temperatures in the Columbia River Basin contributed to a near-complete failure of the adult migration of endangered Snake River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka, NOAA Fisheries 2016). These extreme weather events may become the new normal due to anthropogenic climate change, with catastrophic consequences for endangered species. Existing anthropogenic pressures may amplify vulnerability to climate change, but these potential synergies have rarely been quantified. We examined factors affecting survival of endangered sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and threatened Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) as they migrated upstream through eight dams and reservoirs to spawning areas in the Snake River Basin. Our extensive database included histories of 17,279 individual fish that migrated since 2004. A comparison between conditions in 2015 and daily temperatures and flows in a regulated basin forced by output from global climate models showed that 2015 did have many characteristics of projected future mean conditions. To evaluate potential salmon responses, we modeled migration timing and apparent survival under historical and future climate scenarios (2040s). For Chinook salmon, adult survival from the first dam encountered to spawning grounds dropped by 4-15%, depending on the climate scenario. For sockeye, survival dropped by ~80% from their already low levels. Through sensitivity analyses, we observed that the adult sockeye migration would need to shift more than 2 weeks earlier than predicted to maintain survival rates typical of those seen during 2008-2017. Overall, the greater impacts of climate change on adult sockeye compared with adult Chinook salmon reflected differences in life history and environmental sensitivities, which were compounded for sockeye by larger effect sizes from other anthropogenic factors. Compared with Chinook, sockeye was more negatively affected by a history of juvenile transportation and by similar temperatures and flows. The largest changes in temperature and flow were projected to be upstream from the hydrosystem, where direct mitigation through hydrosystem management is not an option. Unfortunately, Snake River sockeye have likely lost much of their adaptive capacity with the loss of the wild population. Further work exploring habitat restoration or additional mitigation actions is urgently needed.

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Time to evolve? Potential evolutionary responses of fraser river sockeye salmon to climate change and effects on persistence.

Publications

Time to evolve? Potential evolutionary responses of fraser river sockeye salmon to climate change and effects on persistence.

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