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Design and multiseries validation of a web-based gene expression assay for predicting breast cancer recurrence and patient survival.

ABSTRACT: Gene expression analysis is a valuable tool for determining the risk of disease recurrence and overall survival of an individual patient with breast cancer. The purpose of this study was to create and validate a robust prognostic algorithm and implement it within an online analysis environment. Genomic and clinical data from 477 clinically diverse patients with breast cancer were analyzed with Cox regression models to identify genes associated with outcome, independent of standard prognostic factors. Percentile-ranked expression data were used to train a "metagene" algorithm to stratify patients as having a high or low risk of recurrence. The classifier was applied to 1016 patients from five independent series. The 200-gene algorithm stratifies patients into risk groups with statistically and clinically significant differences in recurrence-free and overall survival. Multivariate analysis revealed the classifier to be the strongest predictor of outcome in each validation series. In untreated node-negative patients, 88% sensitivity and 44% specificity for 10-year recurrence-free survival was observed, with positive and negative predictive values of 32% and 92%, respectively. High-risk patients appear to significantly benefit from systemic adjuvant therapy. A 200-gene prognosis signature has been developed and validated using genomic and clinical data representing a range of breast cancer clinicopathological subtypes. It is a strong independent predictor of patient outcome and is available for research use.

SUBMITTER: Van Laar RK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3128745 | biostudies-literature | 2011 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Design and multiseries validation of a web-based gene expression assay for predicting breast cancer recurrence and patient survival.

Van Laar Ryan K RK

The Journal of molecular diagnostics : JMD 20110331 3

Gene expression analysis is a valuable tool for determining the risk of disease recurrence and overall survival of an individual patient with breast cancer. The purpose of this study was to create and validate a robust prognostic algorithm and implement it within an online analysis environment. Genomic and clinical data from 477 clinically diverse patients with breast cancer were analyzed with Cox regression models to identify genes associated with outcome, independent of standard prognostic fac ...[more]

PMID: 21458382

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Project description:BackgroundBoth clinical and genomic data independently predict survival and treatment response in early-stage HER2-positive breast cancer. Here we present the development and validation of a new HER2DX risk score, and a new HER2DX pathological complete response (pCR) score, both based on a 27-gene expression plus clinical feature-based classifier.MethodsHER2DX is a supervised learning algorithm incorporating tumour size, nodal staging, and 4 gene expression signatures tracking immune infiltration, tumour cell proliferation, luminal differentiation, and the expression of the HER2 amplicon, into a single score. 434 HER2-positive tumours from the Short-HER trial were used to train a prognostic risk model; 268 cases from an independent cohort were used to verify the accuracy of the HER2DX risk score. In addition, 116 cases treated with neoadjuvant anti-HER2-based chemotherapy were used to train a predictive model of pathological complete response (pCR); two independent cohorts of 91 and 67 cases were used to verify the accuracy of the HER2DX pCR likelihood score. Five publicly available independent datasets with >1,000 patients with early-stage HER2-positive disease were also analysed.FindingsIn Short-HER, HER2DX variables were associated with good risk outcomes (i.e., immune, and luminal) and poor risk outcomes (i.e., proliferation, and tumour and nodal staging). In an independent cohort, continuous HER2DX risk score was significantly associated with disease-free survival (DFS) (p=0·002); the 5-year DFS in the low-risk group was 97·4% (94·4-100·0%). For the neoadjuvant pCR predictor training cohort, HER2DX variables were associated with pCR (i.e., immune, proliferation and HER2 amplicon) and non-pCR (i.e., luminal, and tumour and nodal staging). In both independent test set cohorts, continuous HER2DX pCR likelihood score was significantly associated with pCR (p<0·0001). A weak negative correlation was found between the HER2DX risk score versus the pCR score (correlation coefficient -0·19).InterpretationThe two HER2DX tests provide accurate estimates of the risk of recurrence, and the likelihood to achieve a pCR, in early-stage HER2-positive breast cancer.FundingThis study received funding from Reveal Genomics, IDIBAPS and the University of Padova.

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Dataset Information

Design and multiseries validation of a web-based gene expression assay for predicting breast cancer recurrence and patient survival.

Publications

Design and multiseries validation of a web-based gene expression assay for predicting breast cancer recurrence and patient survival.

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