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Effects of exposure measurement error in the analysis of health effects from traffic-related air pollution.

ABSTRACT: In large epidemiological studies, many researchers use surrogates of air pollution exposure such as geographic information system (GIS)-based characterizations of traffic or simple housing characteristics. It is important to evaluate quantitatively these surrogates against measured pollutant concentrations to determine how their use affects the interpretation of epidemiological study results. In this study, we quantified the implications of using exposure models derived from validation studies, and other alternative surrogate models with varying amounts of measurement error on epidemiological study findings. We compared previously developed multiple regression models characterizing residential indoor nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)), and elemental carbon (EC) concentrations to models with less explanatory power that may be applied in the absence of validation studies. We constructed a hypothetical epidemiological study, under a range of odds ratios, and determined the bias and uncertainty caused by the use of various exposure models predicting residential indoor exposure levels. Our simulations illustrated that exposure models with fairly modest R(2) (0.3 to 0.4 for the previously developed multiple regression models for PM(2.5) and NO(2)) yielded substantial improvements in epidemiological study performance, relative to the application of regression models created in the absence of validation studies or poorer-performing validation study models (e.g., EC). In many studies, models based on validation data may not be possible, so it may be necessary to use a surrogate model with more measurement error. This analysis provides a technique to quantify the implications of applying various exposure models with different degrees of measurement error in epidemiological research.

SUBMITTER: Baxter LK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3139251 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Effects of exposure measurement error in the analysis of health effects from traffic-related air pollution.

Baxter Lisa K LK Wright Rosalind J RJ Paciorek Christopher J CJ Laden Francine F Suh Helen H HH Levy Jonathan I JI

Journal of exposure science & environmental epidemiology 20090218 1

In large epidemiological studies, many researchers use surrogates of air pollution exposure such as geographic information system (GIS)-based characterizations of traffic or simple housing characteristics. It is important to evaluate quantitatively these surrogates against measured pollutant concentrations to determine how their use affects the interpretation of epidemiological study results. In this study, we quantified the implications of using exposure models derived from validation studies, ...[more]

PMID: 19223939

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Project description:Spatiotemporal air pollution models are increasingly being used to estimate health effects in epidemiological studies. Although such exposure prediction models typically result in improved spatial and temporal resolution of air pollution predictions, they remain subject to shared measurement error, a type of measurement error common in spatiotemporal exposure models which occurs when measurement error is not independent of exposures. A fundamental challenge of exposure measurement error in air pollution assessment is the strong correlation and sometimes identical (shared) error of exposure estimates across geographic space and time. When exposure estimates with shared measurement error are used to estimate health risk in epidemiological analyses, complex errors are potentially introduced, resulting in biased epidemiological conclusions. We demonstrate the influence of using a three-stage spatiotemporal exposure prediction model and introduce formal methods of shared, multiplicative measurement error (SMME) correction of epidemiological health risk estimates. Using our three-stage, ensemble learning based nitrogen oxides (NOx) exposure prediction model, we quantified SMME. We conducted an epidemiological analysis of wheeze risk in relation to NOx exposure among school-aged children. To demonstrate the incremental influence of exposure modeling stage, we iteratively estimated the health risk using assigned exposure predictions from each stage of the NOx model. We then determined the impact of SMME on the variance of the health risk estimates under various scenarios. Depending on the stage of the spatiotemporal exposure model used, we found that wheeze odds ratio ranged from 1.16 to 1.28 for an interquartile range increase in NOx. With each additional stage of exposure modeling, the health effect estimate moved further away from the null (OR=1). When corrected for observed SMME, the health effects confidence intervals slightly lengthened, but our epidemiological conclusions were not altered. When the variance estimate was corrected for the potential "worst case scenario" of SMME, the standard error further increased, having a meaningful influence on epidemiological conclusions. Our framework can be expanded and used to understand the implications of using exposure predictions subject to shared measurement error in future health investigations.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Maternal exposure to traffic-related air pollution during pregnancy has been shown to increase the risk of adverse birth outcomes and neurodevelopmental disorders. By utilizing high-resolution metabolomics (HRM), we investigated perturbations of the maternal serum metabolome in response to traffic-related air pollution to identify biological mechanisms. METHODS:We retrieved stored mid-pregnancy serum samples from 160 mothers who lived in the Central Valley of California known for high air particulate levels. We estimated prenatal traffic-related air pollution exposure (carbon monoxide, nitric oxides, and particulate matter <2.5??m) during first-trimester using the California Line Source Dispersion Model, version 4 (CALINE4) based on residential addresses recorded at birth. We used liquid chromatography-high resolution mass spectrometry to obtain untargeted metabolic profiles and partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) to select metabolic features associated with air pollution exposure. Pathway analyses were employed to identify biologic pathways related to air pollution exposure. As potential confounders we included maternal age, maternal race/ethnicity, and maternal education. RESULTS:In total we extracted 4038 and 4957 metabolic features from maternal serum samples in hydrophilic interaction (HILIC) chromatography (positive ion mode) and C18 (negative ion mode) columns, respectively. After controlling for confounding factors, PLS-DA (Variable Importance in Projection (VIP) ?2) yielded 181 and 251 metabolic features (HILIC and C18, respectively) that discriminated between the high (n?=?98) and low exposed (n?=?62). Pathway enrichment analysis for discriminatory features associated with air pollution indicated that in maternal serum oxidative stress and inflammation related pathways were altered, including linoleate, leukotriene, and prostaglandin pathways. CONCLUSION:The metabolomic features and pathways we found to be associated with air pollution exposure suggest that maternal exposure during pregnancy induces oxidative stress and inflammation pathways previously implicated in pregnancy complications and adverse outcomes.

Project description:BackgroundStudies from the United States indicate that exposure to air pollution in early life is associated with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) in children, but the evidence is not consistent with European data.ObjectiveWe aimed to investigate the association between exposure to air pollution from road traffic and the risk of ASD in children, with careful adjustment for socioeconomic and other confounders.MethodChildren born and residing in Stockholm, Sweden, during 1993-2007 with an ASD diagnosis were identified through multiple health registers and classified as cases (n = 5,136). A randomly selected sample of 18,237 children from the same study base constituted controls. Levels of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter with diameter ? 10 ?m (PM10) from road traffic were estimated at residential addresses during mother's pregnancy and the child's first year of life by dispersion models. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for ASD with or without intellectual disability (ID) were estimated using logistic regression models after conditioning on municipality and calendar year of birth as well as adjustment for potential confounders.ResultAir pollution exposure during the prenatal period was not associated with ASD overall (OR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.86, 1.15 per 10-?g/m3 increase in PM10 and OR = 1.02; 95% CI: 0.94, 1.10 per 20-?g/m3 increase in NOx during mother's pregnancy). Similar results were seen for exposure during the first year of life, and for ASD in combination with ID. An inverse association between air pollution exposure and ASD risk was observed among children of mothers who moved to a new residence during pregnancy.ConclusionEarly-life exposure to low levels of NOx and PM10 from road traffic does not appear to increase the risk of ASD. Citation: Gong T, Dalman C, Wicks S, Dal H, Magnusson C, Lundholm C, Almqvist C, Pershagen G. 2017. Perinatal exposure to traffic-related air pollution and autism spectrum disorders. Environ Health Perspect 125:119-126;?http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP118.

Project description:BackgroundSpatio-temporal models are increasingly being used to predict exposure to ambient outdoor air pollution at high spatial resolution for inclusion in epidemiological analyses of air pollution and health. Measurement error in these predictions can nevertheless have impacts on health effect estimation. Using statistical simulation we aim to investigate the effects of such error within a multi-level model analysis of long and short-term pollutant exposure and health.MethodsOur study was based on a theoretical sample of 1000 geographical sites within Greater London. Simulations of "true" site-specific daily mean and 5-year mean NO2 and PM10 concentrations, incorporating both temporal variation and spatial covariance, were informed by an analysis of daily measurements over the period 2009-2013 from fixed location urban background monitors in the London area. In the context of a multi-level single-pollutant Poisson regression analysis of mortality, we investigated scenarios in which we specified: the Pearson correlation between modelled and "true" data and the ratio of their variances (model versus "true") and assumed these parameters were the same spatially and temporally.ResultsIn general, health effect estimates associated with both long and short-term exposure were biased towards the null with the level of bias increasing to over 60% as the correlation coefficient decreased from 0.9 to 0.5 and the variance ratio increased from 0.5 to 2. However, for a combination of high correlation (0.9) and small variance ratio (0.5) non-trivial bias (> 25%) away from the null was observed. Standard errors of health effect estimates, though unaffected by changes in the correlation coefficient, appeared to be attenuated for variance ratios > 1 but inflated for variance ratios < 1.ConclusionWhile our findings suggest that in most cases modelling errors result in attenuation of the effect estimate towards the null, in some situations a non-trivial bias away from the null may occur. The magnitude and direction of bias appears to depend on the relationship between modelled and "true" data in terms of their correlation and the ratio of their variances. These factors should be taken into account when assessing the validity of modelled air pollution predictions for use in complex epidemiological models.

Project description:BackgroundTwo distinctly different types of measurement error are Berkson and classical. Impacts of measurement error in epidemiologic studies of ambient air pollution are expected to depend on error type. We characterize measurement error due to instrument imprecision and spatial variability as multiplicative (i.e. additive on the log scale) and model it over a range of error types to assess impacts on risk ratio estimates both on a per measurement unit basis and on a per interquartile range (IQR) basis in a time-series study in Atlanta.MethodsDaily measures of twelve ambient air pollutants were analyzed: NO2, NOx, O3, SO2, CO, PM10 mass, PM2.5 mass, and PM2.5 components sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, elemental carbon and organic carbon. Semivariogram analysis was applied to assess spatial variability. Error due to this spatial variability was added to a reference pollutant time-series on the log scale using Monte Carlo simulations. Each of these time-series was exponentiated and introduced to a Poisson generalized linear model of cardiovascular disease emergency department visits.ResultsMeasurement error resulted in reduced statistical significance for the risk ratio estimates for all amounts (corresponding to different pollutants) and types of error. When modelled as classical-type error, risk ratios were attenuated, particularly for primary air pollutants, with average attenuation in risk ratios on a per unit of measurement basis ranging from 18% to 92% and on an IQR basis ranging from 18% to 86%. When modelled as Berkson-type error, risk ratios per unit of measurement were biased away from the null hypothesis by 2% to 31%, whereas risk ratios per IQR were attenuated (i.e. biased toward the null) by 5% to 34%. For CO modelled error amount, a range of error types were simulated and effects on risk ratio bias and significance were observed.ConclusionsFor multiplicative error, both the amount and type of measurement error impact health effect estimates in air pollution epidemiology. By modelling instrument imprecision and spatial variability as different error types, we estimate direction and magnitude of the effects of error over a range of error types.

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Effects of exposure measurement error in the analysis of health effects from traffic-related air pollution.

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Effects of exposure measurement error in the analysis of health effects from traffic-related air pollution.

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