Dataset Information

A prognostic model for estimating the time to virologic failure in HIV-1 infected patients undergoing a new combination antiretroviral therapy regimen.

ABSTRACT:

Background

HIV-1 genotypic susceptibility scores (GSSs) were proven to be significant prognostic factors of fixed time-point virologic outcomes after combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) switch/initiation. However, their relative-hazard for the time to virologic failure has not been thoroughly investigated, and an expert system that is able to predict how long a new cART regimen will remain effective has never been designed.

Methods

We analyzed patients of the Italian ARCA cohort starting a new cART from 1999 onwards either after virologic failure or as treatment-naïve. The time to virologic failure was the endpoint, from the 90th day after treatment start, defined as the first HIV-1 RNA > 400 copies/ml, censoring at last available HIV-1 RNA before treatment discontinuation. We assessed the relative hazard/importance of GSSs according to distinct interpretation systems (Rega, ANRS and HIVdb) and other covariates by means of Cox regression and random survival forests (RSF). Prediction models were validated via the bootstrap and c-index measure.

Results

The dataset included 2337 regimens from 2182 patients, of which 733 were previously treatment-naïve. We observed 1067 virologic failures over 2820 persons-years. Multivariable analysis revealed that low GSSs of cART were independently associated with the hazard of a virologic failure, along with several other covariates. Evaluation of predictive performance yielded a modest ability of the Cox regression to predict the virologic endpoint (c-index?0.70), while RSF showed a better performance (c-index?0.73, p < 0.0001 vs. Cox regression). Variable importance according to RSF was concordant with the Cox hazards.

Conclusions

GSSs of cART and several other covariates were investigated using linear and non-linear survival analysis. RSF models are a promising approach for the development of a reliable system that predicts time to virologic failure better than Cox regression. Such models might represent a significant improvement over the current methods for monitoring and optimization of cART.

SUBMITTER: Prosperi MC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3144446 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A prognostic model for estimating the time to virologic failure in HIV-1 infected patients undergoing a new combination antiretroviral therapy regimen.

Prosperi Mattia C F MC Di Giambenedetto Simona S Fanti Iuri I Meini Genny G Bruzzone Bianca B Callegaro Annapaola A Penco Giovanni G Bagnarelli Patrizia P Micheli Valeria V Paolini Elisabetta E Di Biagio Antonio A Ghisetti Valeria V Di Pietro Massimo M Zazzi Maurizio M De Luca Andrea A

BMC medical informatics and decision making 20110614

<h4>Background</h4>HIV-1 genotypic susceptibility scores (GSSs) were proven to be significant prognostic factors of fixed time-point virologic outcomes after combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) switch/initiation. However, their relative-hazard for the time to virologic failure has not been thoroughly investigated, and an expert system that is able to predict how long a new cART regimen will remain effective has never been designed.<h4>Methods</h4>We analyzed patients of the Italian ARCA co ...[more]

PMID: 21672248

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Project description:BackgroundAccess to routine virologic monitoring, critical to ensuring treatment success, remains limited in low- and middle-income countries. We report on implementation of routine viral load (VL) monitoring and risk factors for virologic failure among HIV-infected children on antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Western Kenya.MethodsRoutine VL testing was introduced in western Kenya in November 2013. We performed a case-control study among 1190 HIV-infected children ≤15 years on ART who underwent routine VL testing June 2014-May 2015. A random sample of 98 cases (virologic failure define as VL >1000 cps/mL) and 201 controls (VL <1000 cps/mL) from five facilities in three high HIV prevalence counties in Kenya were followed for a minimum of 12 months. Data from patient charts were analyzed using logistic regression to determine factors associated with failure to attain virologic suppression at initial routine and subsequent VL testing among cases.ResultsOverall, 1190 (94%) children with a median age of 8 years underwent routine VL testing of whom (37%) had virological failure. Among the 299 cases and controls, WHO stage, baseline CD4 count and time since ART initiation were not associated with virologic failure during the follow-up period. In multivariable analysis, unsuppressed children at initial test were more likely to be male (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 2.1, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 2.1-3.6) and have had an ART regimen change (aOR 2.0, CI 1.0-3.7) than controls. Of the two-thirds of children 201/299 who had a subsequent VL performed, VL suppression was greater among those suppressed at initial test 126/135 (93.3%) compared to children with virologic failure 15/66 (22.7%, p<0.0001). Among those failing at first test who achieved viral suppression in follow up, 12/15 (80%) were on a protease inhibitor (PI)-based regimen. In the multivariable analysis of children with subsequent VL testing, children on PI-based 2nd line regimens were 10-fold more likely to achieve viral suppression than children on first-line NNRTI-based ART (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] 0.1; 95%CI 0.0-0.4).ConclusionCoverage of initial routine viral load testing among children on ART in western Kenya is high. However, subsequent testing and virologic suppression are low in children with virologic failure on initial routine viral load test. There is an urgent need to improve management and viral load monitoring of children living with HIV experiencing treatment failure to ensure improved long-term outcomes.

Project description:ObjectiveTo evaluate associations between hair antiretroviral hair concentrations as an objective, cumulative adherence metric, with self-reported adherence and virologic outcomes.DesignAnalysis of cohort A of the ACTG-A5288 study. These patients in resource-limited settings were failing second-line protease inhibitor-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) but were susceptible to at least one nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) and their protease inhibitor, and continued taking their protease inhibitor-based regimen.MethodsAntiretroviral hair concentrations in participants taking two NRTIs with boosted atazanavir (n = 69) or lopinavir (n = 112) were analyzed at weeks 12, 24, 36 and 48 using liquid-chromatography--tandem-mass-spectrometry assays. Participants' self-reported percentage of doses taken in the previous month; virologic failure was confirmed HIV-1 RNA at least 1000 copies/ml at week 24 or 48.ResultsFrom 181 participants with hair samples (61% women, median age: 39 years; CD4+ cell count: 167 cells/μl; HIV-1 RNA: 18 648 copies/ml), 91 (50%) experienced virologic failure at either visit. At 24 weeks, median hair concentrations were 2.95 [interquartile range (IQR) 0.49-4.60] ng/mg for atazanavir, 2.64 (IQR 0.73--7.16) for lopinavir, and 0.44 (IQR 0.11--0.76) for ritonavir. Plasma HIV-1 RNA demonstrated inverse correlations with hair levels (rs -0.46 to -0.74) at weeks 24 and 48. Weaker associations were seen with self-reported adherence (rs -0.03 to -0.24). Decreasing hair concentrations were significantly associated with virologic failure, the hazard ratio (95% CI) for ATV, LPV, and RTV were 0.69 (0.56-0.86), 0.77 (0.68-0.87), and 0.12 (0.06-0.27), respectively.ConclusionProtease inhibitor hair concentrations showed stronger associations with subsequent virologic outcomes than self-reported adherence in this cohort. Hair adherence measures could identify individuals at risk of second-line treatment failure in need of interventions.

Project description:There are limited data of immunologic and virologic failure in Asian HIV-infected children using non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We examined the incidence rate of immunologic failure (IF) and virologic failure (VF) and the accuracy of using IF to predict VF in Thai HIV-infected children using first-line NNRTI-based HAART.Antiretroviral (ART)-naïve HIV-infected children from 2 prospective cohorts treated with NNRTI-based HAART during 2001-2008 were included. CD4 counts were performed every 12 weeks and plasma HIV-RNA measured every 24 weeks. Immune recovery was defined as CD4%?25%. IF was defined as persistent decline of ?5% in CD4% in children with CD4%<15% at baseline or decrease in CD4 count ?30% from baseline. VF was defined as HIV-RNA>1,000 copies/ml after at least 24 weeks of HAART. Clinical and laboratory parameter changes were assessed using a paired t-test, and a time to event approach was used to assess predictors of VF. Sensitivity and specificity of IF were calculated against VF.107 ART-naive HIV-infected children were included, 52% female, % CDC clinical classification N:A:B:C 4:44:30:22%. Baseline data were median (IQR) age 6.2 (4.2-8.9) years, CD4% 7 (3-15), HIV-RNA 5.0 (4.9-5.5) log10copies/ml. Nevirapine (NVP) and efavirenz (EFV)-based HAART were started in 70% and 30%, respectively.At 96 weeks, none had progressed to a CDC clinical classification of AIDS and one had died from pneumonia. Overall, significant improvement of weight for age z-score (p = 0.014), height for age z-score, hemoglobin, and CD4 were seen (all p < 0.001). The median (IQR) CD4% at 96 weeks was 25 (18-30)%. Eighty-nine percent of children had immune recovery (CD4%?25%) and 75% of children had HIV-RNA <1.7log10copies/ml.Thirty five (32.7%) children experienced VF within 96 weeks. Of these, 24 (68.6%) and 31 (88.6%) children had VF in the first 24 and 48 weeks respectively.Only 1 (0.9%) child experienced IF within 96 weeks and the sensitivity (95%CI) of IF to VF was 4 (0.1-20.4)% and specificity was 100 (93.9-100)%.Immunologic failure, as defined here, had low sensitivity compared to VF and should not be recommended to detect treatment failure. Plasma HIV-RNA should be performed twice, at weeks 24 and 48, to detect early treatment failure.Clinicaltrials.gov identification number NCT00476606.

Project description:BackgroundContemporary data on the immunologic, haematologic and virologic responses and predictors of virologic failure after initiation of free antiretroviral treatment in Cameroon are needed to evaluate the current treatment-monitoring algorithm and to complement efforts to scale-up and improve on the management of HIV infections.MethodsThis was a cross-sectional study conducted between October 2010 and June 2012. A total of 951 participants aged 18-74 years were recruited from selected approved HIV treatment centres of the Northwest and Southwest regions. This comprised 247 males and 704 females. Demographic, self-reported risk behaviours and socioeconomic data were obtained using a structured questionnaire. Full blood and CD4 + T-cell counts were done using standard automated techniques. Determination of viral load (VL) was done using Abbott RealTime HIV-1 m2000™ system. Data was analysed using SPSS version 17. The statistical significance level was P < 0.05.ResultsThe median duration of antiretroviral therapy (ART) was 24 months. The population mean CD4 + T-cell count was 255.3 cells/μL [95% CI, 236.8 - 273.9]. Overall, 45.9%, 43.8% and 10.2% of the participants had CD4 + T-cell counts of < 200 cells/μL, 200-499 cells/μL and > 500 cells/μL respectively. Anaemia was present in 26.2% of the participants with 62.3%, 25.7% and 12% described as mild, moderate and severe anaemia respectively. Virologic failure occurred in 23.2% of the participants with 12.3% having VL > 10,000 RNA copies/mL. Meanwhile 76.8% of patients attained adequate viral suppression with 40.8% having undetectable viral load. The age group 18-29 years (p = 0.024), co-infection with tuberculosis (p = 0.014), anaemia (p = 0.028) and distance from the treatment centre (p = 0.011) independently predicted virologic failure.ConclusionThe majority of the participants achieved adequate viral suppression after ≥ 6 months of ART. Despite these favourable immuno-haematologic and virologic outcomes, the National AIDS Control Program should step-up efforts to improve on antiretroviral drug distribution, as well as proper assessment and management of anaemia, foster early diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis and enhance treatment adherence counselling especially in younger patients.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:The 2016 WHO consolidated guidelines on the use of antiretroviral drugs defines HIV virologic failure for low and middle income countries (LMIC) as plasma HIV-RNA ? 1000 copies/mL. We evaluated virologic failure and predictors in four African countries. MATERIALS AND METHODS:We included HIV-infected participants on a WHO recommended antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimen and enrolled in the African Cohort Study between January 2013 and October 2017. Studied outcomes were virologic failure (plasma HIV-RNA ? 1000 copies/mL at the most recent visit), viraemia (plasma HIV-RNA ? 50 copies/mL at the most recent visit); and persistent viraemia (plasma HIV-RNA ? 50 copies/mL at two consecutive visits). Generalized linear models were used to estimate relative risks with their 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS:2054 participants were included in this analysis. Viraemia, persistent viraemia and virologic failure were observed in 396 (19.3%), 160 (7.8%) and 184 (9%) participants respectively. Of the participants with persistent viraemia, only 57.5% (92/160) had confirmed virologic failure. In the multivariate analysis, attending clinical care site other than the Uganda sitebeing on 2nd line ART (aRR 1.8, 95% CI 1·28-2·66); other ART combinations not first line and not second line (aRR 3.8, 95% CI 1.18-11.9), a history of fever in the past week (aRR 3.7, 95% CI 1.69-8.05), low CD4 count (aRR 6.9, 95% CI 4.7-10.2) and missing any day of ART (aRR 1·8, 95% CI 1·27-2.57) increased the risk of virologic failure. Being on 2nd line therapy, the site where one receives care and CD4 count < 500 predicted viraemia, persistent viraemia and virologic failure. CONCLUSION:In conclusion, these findings demonstrate that HIV-infected patients established on ART for more than six months in the African setting frequently experienced viraemia while continuing to be on ART. The findings also show that being on second line, low CD4 count, missing any day of ART and history of fever in the past week remain important predictors of virologic failure that should trigger intensified adherence counselling especially in the absence of reliable or readily available viral load monitoring. Finally, clinical care sites are different calling for further analyses to elucidate on the unique features of these sites.

Project description:Most patients failing antiretroviral treatment in Uganda continue to fail their treatment regimen even if a dominant drug-resistant HIV-1 genotype is not detected. In a recent retrospective study, we observed that approximately 30% of HIV-infected individuals in the Joint Clinical Research Centre (Kampala, Uganda) experienced virologic failure with a susceptible HIV-1 genotype based on standard Sanger sequencing. Selection of minority drug-resistant HIV-1 variants (not detectable by Sanger sequencing) under antiretroviral therapy pressure can lead to a shift in the viral quasispecies distribution, becoming dominant members of the virus population and eventually causing treatment failure. Here, we used a novel HIV-1 genotyping assay based on deep sequencing (DeepGen) to quantify low-level drug-resistant HIV-1 variants in 33 patients failing a first-line antiretroviral treatment regimen in the absence of drug-resistant mutations, as screened by standard population-based Sanger sequencing. Using this sensitive assay, we observed that 64% (21/33) of these individuals had low-frequency (or minority) drug-resistant variants in the intrapatient HIV-1 population, which correlated with treatment failure. Moreover, the presence of these minority HIV-1 variants was associated with higher intrapatient HIV-1 diversity, suggesting a dynamic selection or fading of drug-resistant HIV-1 variants from the viral quasispecies in the presence or absence of drug pressure, respectively. This study identified low-frequency HIV drug resistance mutations by deep sequencing in Ugandan patients failing antiretroviral treatment but lacking dominant drug resistance mutations as determined by Sanger sequencing methods. We showed that these low-abundance drug-resistant viruses could have significant consequences for clinical outcomes, especially if treatment is not modified based on a susceptible HIV-1 genotype by Sanger sequencing. Therefore, we propose to make clinical decisions using more sensitive methods to detect minority HIV-1 variants.

Dataset Information

A prognostic model for estimating the time to virologic failure in HIV-1 infected patients undergoing a new combination antiretroviral therapy regimen.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

A prognostic model for estimating the time to virologic failure in HIV-1 infected patients undergoing a new combination antiretroviral therapy regimen.

Similar Datasets

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