Effectiveness and cost effectiveness of cardiovascular disease prevention in whole populations: modelling study.
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ABSTRACT: Objective
To estimate the potential cost effectiveness of a population-wide risk factor reduction programme aimed at preventing cardiovascular disease.Design
Economic modelling analysis.Setting
England and Wales. Population Entire population. Model Spreadsheet model to quantify the reduction in cardiovascular disease over a decade, assuming the benefits apply consistently for men and women across age and risk groups.Main outcome measures
Cardiovascular events avoided, quality adjusted life years gained, and savings in healthcare costs for a given effectiveness; estimates of how much it would be worth spending to achieve a specific outcome.Results
A programme across the entire population of England and Wales (about 50 million people) that reduced cardiovascular events by just 1% would result in savings to the health service worth at least £30m (€34m; $48m) a year compared with no additional intervention. Reducing mean cholesterol concentrations or blood pressure levels in the population by 5% (as already achieved by similar interventions in some other countries) would result in annual savings worth at least £80m to £100m. Legislation or other measures to reduce dietary salt intake by 3 g/day (current mean intake approximately 8.5 g/day) would prevent approximately 30,000 cardiovascular events, with savings worth at least £40m a year. Legislation to reduce intake of industrial trans fatty acid by approximately 0.5% of total energy content might gain around 570,000 life years and generate NHS savings worth at least £230m a year.Conclusions
Any intervention that achieved even a modest population-wide reduction in any major cardiovascular risk factor would produce a net cost saving to the NHS, as well as improving health. Given the conservative assumptions used in this model, the true benefits would probably be greater.
SUBMITTER: Barton P
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3145836 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectiveThe Da Qing Diabetes Prevention program (DQDP) was a randomized lifestyle modification intervention conducted in 1986 for the prevention and control of type 2 diabetes in individuals with impaired glucose tolerance. The current study estimated long-term cost-effectiveness of the program based on the health utilities from the Chinese population.MethodsA Markov Monte Carlo model was developed to estimate the impact of the intervention from the healthcare system perspective. The analysis was run over 30-year and lifetime periods and costs were estimated respectively as health management service costs. Baseline characteristics and intervention effects were assessed from the DQDP. Utilities and costs were generated from relevant literature. The outcome measures were program cost per quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the intervention. Sensitivity analyses and threshold analyses were performed.ResultsUsing a 30-year horizon, the intervention strategy was cost-saving and was associated with better health outcomes (increase of 0.74 QALYs per intervention participant). Using a lifetime horizon, the intervention strategy was cost-saving and was associated with additional 1.44 QALYs. Sensitivity analyses showed that the overall ICER was most strongly influenced by the hazard ratio of cardiovascular disease event.ConclusionsThe Da Qing lifestyle intervention in a Chinese population with impaired glucose tolerance is likely to translate into substantial economic value. It is cost-saving over a 30-year time and lifetime frame.
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Project description:BackgroundReducing dietary sodium (salt) intake has been proposed as a population-wide strategy to reduce blood pressure and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The cost-effectiveness of such strategies has hitherto not been investigated in Cameroon.MethodsA multicohort multistate life table Markov model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of three population salt reduction strategies: mass media campaign, school-based salt education programme and low-sodium salt substitute. A healthcare system perspective was considered and adults alive in 2016 were simulated over the life course. Outcomes were changes in disease incidence, mortality, health-adjusted life years (HALYs), healthcare costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) over the lifetime. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to quantify uncertainty.ResultsOver the life span of the cohort of adults alive in Cameroon in 2016, substantial numbers of new CVD events could be prevented, with over 10 000, 79 000 and 84 000 CVD deaths that could be averted from mass media, school education programme and salt substitute interventions, respectively. Population health gains over the lifetime were 46 700 HALYs, 348 800 HALYs and 368 400 HALYs for the mass media, school education programme and salt substitute interventions, respectively. ICERs showed that all interventions were dominant, with probabilities of being cost-saving of 84% for the school education programme, 89% for the mass media campaign and 99% for the low sodium salt substitute. Results were largely robust in sensitivity analysis.ConclusionAll the salt reduction strategies evaluated were highly cost-effective with very high probabilities of being cost-saving. Salt reduction in Cameroon has the potential to save many lives and offers good value for money.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Dual pathway inhibition with 2.5?mg rivaroxaban twice daily plus 100?mg aspirin once daily may be a promising alternative to 100?mg aspirin antiplatelet therapy for the prevention of cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease and/or peripheral arterial disease. However, treatment costs and bleeding risks are higher, and there is another treatment option for peripheral arterial disease, 75?mg clopidogrel. A comprehensive assessment of benefits, risks and costs of dual pathway inhibition versus standard of care is needed. METHODS:We used a state transition model including cardiovascular, ischaemic limb and bleeding events to compare dual pathway inhibition to aspirin antiplatelet therapy in coronary artery disease, and additionally to clopidogrel antiplatelet therapy in peripheral arterial disease patients. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio from costs and quality-adjusted life-years of lifelong treatment, and the cost-effectiveness probability at a €50,000/quality-adjusted life-year threshold. RESULTS:Quality-adjusted life-years and costs of dual pathway inhibition were highest, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios versus aspirin were €32,109 in coronary artery disease and €26,381 in peripheral arterial disease patients, with 92% and 56% cost-effectiveness probability, respectively (clopidogrel was extendedly dominated). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were below €20,000 in comorbid peripheral arterial disease patients and coronary artery disease patients younger than 65 years, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were above €50,000 in carotid artery disease patients and coronary artery disease patients older than 75 years. CONCLUSION:Lifelong preventive treatment of coronary artery disease and peripheral arterial disease patients at risk of cardiovascular events with dual pathway inhibition improves health outcomes and seems overall cost-effective relative to aspirin antiplatelet therapy and also to clopidogrel antiplatelet therapy for peripheral arterial disease, particularly in comorbid patients, but not in older patients and in carotid artery disease patients. These findings may warrant a targeted approach.
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Project description:ImportanceIn the Canakinumab Anti-inflammatory Thrombosis Outcome Study (CANTOS) trial, the anti-inflammatory monoclonal antibody canakinumab significantly reduced the risk of recurrent cardiovascular events in patients with previous myocardial infarction (MI) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels of 2 mg/L or greater.ObjectiveTo estimate the cost-effectiveness of adding canakinumab to standard of care for the secondary prevention of major cardiovascular events over a range of potential prices.Design, setting, and participantsA state-transition Markov model was constructed to estimate costs and outcomes over a lifetime horizon by projecting rates of recurrent MI, coronary revascularization, infection, and lung cancer with and without canakinumab treatment. We used a US health care sector perspective, and the base case used the current US market price of canakinumab of $73 000 per year. A hypothetical cohort of patients after MI aged 61 years with an hs-CRP level of 2 mg/L or greater was constructed.InterventionsCanakinumab, 150 mg, administered every 3 months plus standard of care compared with standard of care alone.Main outcomes and measuresLifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), discounted at 3% annually.ResultsAdding canakinumab to standard of care increased life expectancy from 11.31 to 11.36 years, QALYs from 9.37 to 9.50, and costs from $242 000 to $1 074 000, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $6.4 million per QALY gained. The price would have to be reduced by more than 98% (to $1150 per year or less) to meet the $100 000 per QALY willingness-to-pay threshold. These results were generally robust across alternative assumptions, eg, substantially lower health-related quality of life after recurrent cardiovascular events, lower infection rates while receiving canakinumab, and reduced all-cause mortality while receiving canakinumab. Including a potential beneficial effect of canakinumab on lung cancer incidence improved the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio to $3.5 million per QALY gained. A strategy of continuing canakinumab selectively in patients with reduction in hs-CRP levels to less than 2 mg/L would have a cost-effectiveness ratio of $819 000 per QALY gained.Conclusions and relevanceCanakinumab is not cost-effective at current US prices for prevention of recurrent cardiovascular events in patients with a prior MI. Substantial price reductions would be needed for canakinumab to be considered cost-effective.
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Project description:Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death internationally. We aimed to model the impact of CVD preventive double therapy (a statin and anti-hypertensive) by clinician-assessed absolute risk level. An established and validated multi-state life-table model for the national New Zealand (NZ) population was adapted. The new version of the model specifically considered the 60-64-year-old male population which was stratified by risk using a published NZ-specific CVD risk equation. The intervention period of treatment was for five years, but a lifetime horizon was used for measuring benefits and costs (a five-year horizon was also implemented). We found that for this group offering double therapy was highly cost-effective in all absolute risk categories (eg, NZ$1580 per QALY gained in the >20% in 5 years risk stratum; 95%UI: Dominant to NZ$3990). Even in the lowest risk stratum (≤5% risk in 5 years), the cost per QALY was only NZ$25,500 (NZ$28,200 and US$19,100 in 2018). At an individual level, the gain for those who responded to the screening offer and commenced preventive treatment ranged from 0.6 to 4.9 months of quality-adjusted life gained (or less than a month gain with a five-year horizon). Nevertheless, at the individual level, patient considerations are critical as some people may decide that this amount of average health gain does not justify taking daily medication.
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Project description:Objectives The aim of the present study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the polypill in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Design A health economic modelling study. Setting Primary healthcare in the Netherlands. Participants Simulated individuals from the general Dutch population, aged 45-75 years. Interventions Opportunistic screening followed by prescription of the polypill to eligible individuals. Eligibility was defined as having a minimum 10-year risk of cardiovascular death as assessed with the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation function of alternatively 5%, 7.5% or 10%. Different versions of the polypill were considered, depending on composition: (1) the Indian polycap, with three different types of blood pressure-lowering drugs, a statin and aspirin; (2) as (1) but without aspirin and (3) as (2) but with a double statin dose. In addition, a scenario of (targeted) separate antihypertensive and/or statin medication was simulated. Primary outcome measures Cases of acute myocardial infarction or stroke prevented, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and the costs per QALY gained. All interventions were compared with usual care. Results All scenarios were cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio between €7900 and 12?300 per QALY compared with usual care. Most health gains were achieved with the polypill without aspirin and containing a double dose of statins. With a 10-year risk of 7.5% as the threshold, this pill would prevent approximately 3.5% of all cardiovascular events. Conclusions Opportunistic screening based on global cardiovascular risk assessment followed by polypill prescription to those with increased risk offers a cost-effective strategy. Most health gain is achieved by the polypill without aspirin and a double statin dose.
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