Dataset Information

Prediction of emergent heart failure death by semi-quantitative triage risk stratification.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Generic triage risk assessments are widely used in the emergency department (ED), but have not been validated for prediction of short-term risk among patients with acute heart failure (HF). Our objective was to evaluate the Canadian Triage Acuity Scale (CTAS) for prediction of early death among HF patients.

Methods

We included patients presenting with HF to an ED in Ontario from Apr 2003 to Mar 2007. We used the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System and vital statistics databases to examine care and outcomes.

Results

Among 68,380 patients (76±12 years, 49.4% men), early mortality was stratified with death rates of 9.9%, 1.9%, 0.9%, and 0.5% at 1-day, and 17.2%, 5.9%, 3.8%, and 2.5% at 7-days, for CTAS 1, 2, 3, and 4-5, respectively. Compared to lower acuity (CTAS 4-5) patients, adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for 1-day death were 1.32 (95%CI; 0.93-1.88; p?=?0.12) for CTAS 3, 2.41 (95%CI; 1.71-3.40; p<0.001) for CTAS 2, and highest for CTAS 1: 9.06 (95%CI; 6.28-13.06; p<0.001). Predictors of triage-critical (CTAS 1) status included oxygen saturation <90% (aOR 5.92, 95%CI; 3.09-11.81; p<0.001), respiratory rate >24 breaths/minute (aOR 1.96, 95%CI; 1.05-3.67; p?=?0.034), and arrival by paramedic (aOR 3.52, 95%CI; 1.70-8.02; p?=?0.001). While age/sex-adjusted CTAS score provided good discrimination for ED (c-statistic?=?0.817) and 1-day (c-statistic?=?0.724) death, mortality prediction was improved further after accounting for cardiac and non-cardiac co-morbidities (c-statistics 0.882 and 0.810, respectively; both p<0.001).

Conclusions

A semi-quantitative triage acuity scale assigned at ED presentation and based largely on respiratory factors predicted emergent death among HF patients.

SUBMITTER: Van Spall HG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3154275 | biostudies-literature | 2011

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Prediction of emergent heart failure death by semi-quantitative triage risk stratification.

Van Spall Harriette G C HG Atzema Clare C Schull Michael J MJ Newton Gary E GE Mak Susanna S Chong Alice A Tu Jack V JV Stukel Thérèse A TA Lee Douglas S DS

PloS one 20110810 8

<h4>Objectives</h4>Generic triage risk assessments are widely used in the emergency department (ED), but have not been validated for prediction of short-term risk among patients with acute heart failure (HF). Our objective was to evaluate the Canadian Triage Acuity Scale (CTAS) for prediction of early death among HF patients.<h4>Methods</h4>We included patients presenting with HF to an ED in Ontario from Apr 2003 to Mar 2007. We used the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System and vital statis ...[more]

PMID: 21853068

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Project description:AimsBecause evidence regarding risk stratification predicting prognosis of patients with heart failure (HF) decompensation attended in primary care is lacking, we developed and externally validated a model to forecast death/hospitalization during the first 30 days after an episode of decompensation. The predictive model is based on variables easily obtained in primary care settings.Methods and resultsHEFESTOS is a multinational study consisting of a derivation cohort of HF patients recruited in 14 primary healthcare centres in Barcelona and a validation cohort from primary healthcare in 9 other European countries. The derivation and validation cohorts included 561 and 250 patients, respectively. Percentages of women in the derivation and validation cohorts were 56.3% and 47.6% (P = 0.026), respectively. Mean age was 82.2 years (SD 8.03) in the derivation cohort, and 79.3 years (SD 10.3) in the validation one (P = 0.001). HF with preserved ejection fraction represented 72.1% in the derivation cohort and 58.8% in the validation one (P = 0.004). Mortality/hospitalization during the first 30 days after a decompensation episode was 30.5% and 26% (P = 0.225) for the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression models were performed to develop a score of risk. The identified predictors were worsening of dyspnoea [odds ratio (OR): 2.5; P = 0.001], orthopnoea (OR: 2.16; P = 0.01), paroxysmal nocturnal dyspnoea (OR: 2.25; P = 0.01), crackles (OR: 2.35; P = 0.01), New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (OR: 2.11; P = 0.001), oxygen saturation ≤ 90% (OR: 4.98; P < 0.001), heart rate > 100 b.p.m. (OR: 2.72; P = 0.002), and previous hospitalization due to HF (OR: 2.45; P < 0.001). The model showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.807, 95% confidence interval (CI): [0.770; 0.845] in the derivation cohort and AUC 0.73, 95% CI: [0.660; 0.808] in the validation one. No significant differences between both cohorts were observed (P = 0.08). Regarding probability of hospitalization/death, three risk groups were defined: low <5%, medium 5-20%, and high >20%. Outcome incidence was 2.7% for the low-risk group, 12.8% for medium risk, and 46.2% for high risk in the derivation cohort, and 9.1%, 12.9%, and 39.6% in the validation one.ConclusionsThe HEFESTOS score, based on variables easily accessible in a community setting and validated in an external European cohort, properly predicted the risk of death/hospitalization during the first 30 days after an HF decompensation episode.

Project description:AimsThe present study investigated the prognostic impact of either isolated left atrial (LA) impairment, or its association with right ventricular (RV) failure, in heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), using basic and speckle tracking echocardiography (STE).Methods and resultsOne hundred and six outpatients with HFrEF were enrolled in this prospective observational study. Patients with primary lung diseases, non-sinus rhythm, previous cardiac surgery, and poor acoustic window were excluded. After clinical examination and basic echocardiography, STE was used to measure peak atrial longitudinal strain (PALS) and a new marker of RV performance and pulmonary circulation relation: free-wall RV longitudinal strain (fwRVLS)/systolic pulmonary artery pressure (sPAP). Patients were followed for all-cause/cardiovascular death and HF hospitalization. Of 84 eligible patients (60.1 ± 11.5 years; 82% male patients), 48 reached the combined endpoint (cardiovascular death and/or HF hospitalization). Population was divided into three groups: Group 1 (PALS ≥ 15 and fwRVLS/sPAP ≤ -0.5), Group 2 (PALS ≤ 15 and fwRVLS/sPAP ≤ -0.5), and Group 3 (PALS ≤ 15 and fwRVLS/sPAP > -0.5). Mean follow up was 3.5 ± 0.3 years. The higher severity groups were associated with higher LA volume index (P < 0.0001), New York Heart Association class (P = 0.02), mitral regurgitation (P = 0.0004) and tricuspid regurgitation grades (P < 0.0001), lower left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (P = 0.0003), LV global longitudinal strain (P < 0.0001), PALS (P < 0.0001), tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (P < 0.007), sPAP (P < 0.0001), and RV strain (P < 0.0001). Reduced PALS and fwRVLS/sPAP were independent predictors of the combined endpoint with adjusted Cox models (hazard ratio = 9.54; 95% confidence interval = 2.95-30.92; P = 0.0002 for Group 3 vs. Group 1). Kaplan-Meier curves showed early and persistent divergence between the three groups for the prediction of the combined endpoint and of all-cause death (P < 0.0001).ConclusionsThe combination of LA and right heart damage entails worse prognosis in patients with HFrEF. The evaluation of PALS and fwRVLS/sPAP could aid risk stratification of HFrEF patients to provide them early treatment.

Dataset Information

Prediction of emergent heart failure death by semi-quantitative triage risk stratification.

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Prediction of emergent heart failure death by semi-quantitative triage risk stratification.

Similar Datasets

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