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Area disease estimation based on sentinel hospital records.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Population health attributes (such as disease incidence and prevalence) are often estimated using sentinel hospital records, which are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty. When applied to these health attributes, commonly used biased estimation techniques can lead to false conclusions and ineffective disease intervention and control. Although some estimators can account for measurement error (in the form of white noise, usually after de-trending), most mainstream health statistics techniques cannot generate unbiased and minimum error variance estimates when the available data are biased. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A new technique, called the Biased Sample Hospital-based Area Disease Estimation (B-SHADE), is introduced that generates space-time population disease estimates using biased hospital records. The effectiveness of the technique is empirically evaluated in terms of hospital records of disease incidence (for hand-foot-mouth disease and fever syndrome cases) in Shanghai (China) during a two-year period. The B-SHADE technique uses a weighted summation of sentinel hospital records to derive unbiased and minimum error variance estimates of area incidence. The calculation of these weights is the outcome of a process that combines: the available space-time information; a rigorous assessment of both, the horizontal relationships between hospital records and the vertical links between each hospital's records and the overall disease situation in the region. In this way, the representativeness of the sentinel hospital records was improved, the possible biases of these records were corrected, and the generated area incidence estimates were best linear unbiased estimates (BLUE). Using the same hospital records, the performance of the B-SHADE technique was compared against two mainstream estimators. CONCLUSIONS: The B-SHADE technique involves a hospital network-based model that blends the optimal estimation features of the Block Kriging method and the sample bias correction efficiency of the ratio estimator method. In this way, B-SHADE can overcome the limitations of both methods: Block Kriging's inadequacy concerning the correction of sample bias and spatial clustering; and the ratio estimator's limitation as regards error minimization. The generality of the B-SHADE technique is further demonstrated by the fact that it reduces to Block Kriging in the case of unbiased samples; to ratio estimator if there is no correlation between hospitals; and to simple statistic if the hospital records are neither biased nor space-time correlated. In addition to the theoretical advantages of the B-SHADE technique over the two other methods above, two real world case studies (hand-foot-mouth disease and fever syndrome cases) demonstrated its empirical superiority, as well.

SUBMITTER: Wang JF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3160318 | biostudies-literature | 2011

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Area disease estimation based on sentinel hospital records.

Wang Jin-Feng JF Reis Ben Y BY Hu Mao-Gui MG Christakos George G Yang Wei-Zhong WZ Sun Qiao Q Li Zhong-Jie ZJ Li Xiao-Zhou XZ Lai Sheng-Jie SJ Chen Hong-Yan HY Wang Dao-Chen DC

PloS one 20110823 8

<h4>Background</h4>Population health attributes (such as disease incidence and prevalence) are often estimated using sentinel hospital records, which are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty. When applied to these health attributes, commonly used biased estimation techniques can lead to false conclusions and ineffective disease intervention and control. Although some estimators can account for measurement error (in the form of white noise, usually after de-trending), most mainstream health ...[more]

PMID: 21886791

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Project description:BackgroundIdiopathic cardiomyopathy (ICM) is a rare disease affecting numerous physiological and biomolecular systems with multimorbidity. However, due to the small sample size of uncommon diseases, the whole spectrum of chronic disease co-occurrence, especially in developing nations, has not yet been investigated. To grasp the multimorbidity pattern, we aimed to present a multidimensional model for ICM and differences among age groups.MethodsHospital discharge records were collected from a rare disease centre of ICM inpatients (n = 1036) over 10 years (2012 to 2021) for this retrospective analysis. One-to-one matched controls were also included. First, by looking at the first three digits of the ICD-10 code, we concentrated on chronic illnesses with a prevalence of more than 1%. The ICM and control inpatients had a total of 71 and 69 chronic illnesses, respectively. Second, to evaluate the multimorbidity pattern in both groups, we built age-specific cosine-index-based multimorbidity networks. Third, the associated rule mining (ARM) assessed the comorbidities with heart failure for ICM, specifically.ResultsThe comorbidity burden of ICM was 78% larger than that of the controls. All ages were affected by the burden, although those over 50 years old had more intense interactions. Moreover, in terms of disease connectivity, central, hub, and authority diseases were concentrated in the metabolic, musculoskeletal and connective tissue, genitourinary, eye and adnexa, respiratory, and digestive systems. According to the age-specific connection, the impaired coagulation function was required for raising attention (e.g., autoimmune-attacked digestive and musculoskeletal system disorders) in young adult groups (ICM patients aged 20-49 years). For the middle-aged (50-60 years) and older (≥70 years) groups, malignant neoplasm and circulatory issues were the main confrontable problems. Finally, according to the result of ARM, the comorbidities and comorbidity patterns of heart failure include diabetes mellitus and metabolic disorder, sleeping disorder, renal failure, liver, and circulatory diseases.ConclusionsThe main cause of the comorbid load is aging. The ICM comorbidities were concentrated in the circulatory, metabolic, musculoskeletal and connective tissue, genitourinary, eye and adnexa, respiratory, and digestive systems. The network-based approach optimizes the integrated care of patients with ICM and advances our understanding of multimorbidity associated with the disease.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Administrative health records (AHRs) and electronic medical records (EMRs) are two key sources of population-based data for disease surveillance, but misclassification errors in the data can bias disease estimates. Methods that combine information from error-prone data sources can build on the strengths of AHRs and EMRs. We compared bias and error for four data-combining methods and applied them to estimate hypertension prevalence. METHODS:Our study included rule-based OR and AND methods that identify disease cases from either or both data sources, respectively, rule-based sensitivity-specificity adjusted (RSSA) method that corrects for inaccuracies using a deterministic rule, and probabilistic-based sensitivity-specificity adjusted (PSSA) method that corrects for error using a statistical model. Computer simulation was used to estimate relative bias (RB) and mean square error (MSE) under varying conditions of population disease prevalence, correlation amongst data sources, and amount of misclassification error. AHRs and EMRs for Manitoba, Canada were used to estimate hypertension prevalence using validated case definitions and multiple disease markers. RESULTS:The OR method had the lowest RB and MSE when population disease prevalence was 10%, and the RSSA method had the lowest RB and MSE when population prevalence increased to 20%. As the correlation between data sources increased, the OR method resulted in the lowest RB and MSE. Estimates of hypertension prevalence for AHRs and EMRs alone were 30.9% (95% CI: 30.6-31.2) and 24.9% (95% CI: 24.6-25.2), respectively. The estimates were 21.4% (95% CI: 21.1-21.7), for the AND method, 34.4% (95% CI: 34.1-34.8) for the OR method, 32.2% (95% CI: 31.8-32.6) for the RSSA method, and ranged from 34.3% (95% CI: 34.1-34.5) to 35.9% (95% CI, 35.7-36.1) for the PSSA method, depending on the statistical model. CONCLUSIONS:The OR and AND methods are influenced by correlation amongst the data sources, while the RSSA method is dependent on the accuracy of prior sensitivity and specificity estimates. The PSSA method performed well when population prevalence was high and average correlations amongst disease markers was low. This study will guide researchers to select a data-combining method that best suits their data characteristics.

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Area disease estimation based on sentinel hospital records.

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Area disease estimation based on sentinel hospital records.

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