Ageing, menopause, and ischaemic heart disease mortality in England, Wales, and the United States: modelling study of national mortality data.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT: Objectives
To use changes in heart disease mortality rates with age to investigate the plausibility of attributing women's lower heart disease mortality than men to the protective effects of premenopausal sex hormones.Design
Modelling study of longitudinal mortality data with models assuming (i) a linear association between mortality rates and age (absolute mortality) or (ii) a logarithmic association (proportional mortality). We fitted models to age and sex specific mortality rates in the census years 1950 to 2000 for three birth cohorts (1916-25, 1926-35, and 1936-45).Data sources
UK Office for National Statistics and the US National Center for Health Statistics. Main outcome measure(s) Fit of models to data for England and Wales and for the US.Results
For England-Wales data, proportional increases in ischaemic heart disease mortality fitted the data better than absolute increases (improvement in deviance statistics: women, 58 logarithmic units; men, 37). We identified a deceleration in male mortality after age 45 years (decreasing from 30.3% to 5.2% per age-year, P = 0.042), although the corresponding difference in women was non-significant (P = 0.43, overall trend 7.9% per age-year, P<0.001). By contrast, female breast cancer mortality decelerated significantly after age 45 years (decreasing from 19.3% to 2.6% per age-year, P<0.001). We found similar results in US data.Conclusions
Proportional age related changes in ischaemic heart disease mortality, suggesting a loss of reparative reserve, fit longitudinal mortality data from England, Wales, and the United States better than absolute age related changes in mortality. Acceleration in male heart disease mortality at younger ages could explain sex differences rather than any menopausal changes in women.
SUBMITTER: Vaidya D
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3167164 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:BackgroundCoronary Heart Disease (CHD) remains a major cause of mortality in the United Kingdom. Yet predictions of future CHD mortality are potentially problematic due to population ageing and increase in obesity and diabetes. Here we explore future projections of CHD mortality in England & Wales under two contrasting future trend assumptions.MethodsIn scenario A, we used the conventional counterfactual scenario that the last-observed CHD mortality rates from 2011 would persist unchanged to 2030. The future number of deaths was calculated by applying those rates to the 2012-2030 population estimates. In scenario B, we assumed that the recent falling trend in CHD mortality rates would continue. Using Lee-Carter and Bayesian Age Period Cohort (BAPC) models, we projected the linear trends up to 2030. We validate our methods using past data to predict mortality from 2002-2011. Then, we computed the error between observed and projected values.ResultsIn scenario A, assuming that 2011 mortality rates stayed constant by 2030, the number of CHD deaths would increase 62% or approximately 39,600 additional deaths. In scenario B, assuming recent declines continued, the BAPC model (the model with lowest error) suggests the number of deaths will decrease by 56%, representing approximately 36,200 fewer deaths by 2030.ConclusionsThe decline in CHD mortality has been reasonably continuous since 1979, and there is little reason to believe it will soon halt. The commonly used assumption that mortality will remain constant from 2011 therefore appears slightly dubious. By contrast, using the BAPC model and assuming continuing mortality falls offers a more plausible prediction of future trends. Thus, despite population ageing, the number of CHD deaths might halve again between 2011 and 2030. This has implications for how the potential benefits of future cardiovascular strategies might best be calculated and presented.
| S-EPMC4053422 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe regional distribution of a disease may provide important insights regarding its pathophysiology, risk factors and clinical care. While sepsis is a prominent cause of death in the United States (US), few studies have examined regional variations with this malady. We identified the national variation in sepsis deaths in the US. We conducted a descriptive analysis of 1999-2005 national vital statistics data from the National Center for Health Statistics summarized at the state-level. We defined sepsis deaths as deaths attributed to an infection, classified according to the International Classification of Diseases, Version 10. We calculated national and state age-adjusted sepsis-attributed mortality rates.ResultsNational age-adjusted sepsis mortality was 65.5 per 100,000 persons (95% CI: 65.8 - 66.0). State level sepsis mortality varied more than two-fold (range 41 to 88.6 per 100,000 persons; median 60.8 per 100,000, IQR 53.9-74.4 per 100,000). A cluster extending from the Southeastern to the mid-Atlantic US encompassed states with the highest sepsis mortality.ConclusionsSepsis mortality varies across the US. The states with highest sepsis mortality form a contiguous cluster in the Southeastern and mid-Atlantic US. These observations highlight unanswered questions regarding the characteristics and care of sepsis.
| S-EPMC2831852 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:To explore time trends in deaths attributable to work in England and Wales, and identify priorities for prevention, we conducted a proportional analysis of mortality by occupation over a 22-year period. METHODS:Analysis was based on deaths in men aged 20-74 years during 1979-1980 and 1982-2000 with a recorded occupation. Proportional mortality ratios, standardised for age and social class, were calculated for pre-specified combinations of occupation and cause of death, for which excess mortality could reasonably be attributed to work. Differences between observed and expected numbers of deaths by cause and occupation were expressed as annual excess death rates. RESULTS:Mortality attributable to work declined substantially over the period of study, with total excess death rates of 733.2 per year during 1979-1990 and 471.7 per year during 1991-2000. The largest contributing hazards were chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and pneumoconiosis in coal miners, pleural cancer from asbestos, and motor vehicle accidents in lorry drivers. In contrast to most other hazards, there was no clear decline in excess mortality attributable to asbestos, or in deaths from sino-nasal cancer associated with exposure to wood dust. CONCLUSIONS:The overall decline in mortality attributable to work is likely to reflect reduced employment in more hazardous occupations, as well as improvements in working conditions. It is imperative to ensure that occupational exposures to asbestos and wood dust are now adequately controlled. Further research is needed on accidents involving lorries with the aim of developing more effective strategies for the prevention of injury.
| S-EPMC3248917 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe UK is legally committed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050. We aimed to understand the potential impact on population health of two pathways for achieving this target through the integrated effects of six actions in four sectors.MethodsIn this multisectoral modelling study we assessed the impact on population health in England and Wales of six policy actions relating to electricity generation, transport, home energy, active travel, and diets relative to a baseline scenario in which climate actions, exposures, and behaviours were held constant at 2020 levels under two scenarios: the UK Climate Change Committee's Balanced Pathway of technological and behavioural measures; and its Widespread Engagement Pathway, which assumes more substantial changes to consumer behaviours. We quantified the impacts of each policy action on mortality using a life table comprising all exposures, behaviours, and health outcomes in a single model.FindingsBoth scenarios are predicted to result in substantial reductions in mortality by 2050. The Widespread Engagement Pathway achieves a slightly greater reduction in outdoor fine particulate matter air pollution of 3·2 μg/m3 (33%) and, under assumptions of appropriate ventilation, a greater improvement in indoor air pollution (a decrease in indoor-generated fine particulate matter from 9·4 μg/m3 to 4·6 μg/m3) and winter temperatures (increasing from 17·8°C to 18·1°C), as well as appreciably greater changes in levels of active travel (27% increase in metabolic equivalent hours per week of walking and cycling) by 2050. Additionally, the greater reduction in red meat consumption (50% compared with 35% under the Balanced Pathway) by 2050 results in greater consumption of fruits (17-18 g/day), vegetables (22-23 g/day), and legumes (5-7 g/day). Combined actions under the Balanced Pathway result in more than 2 million cumulative life-years gained over 2021-50; the estimated gain under the Widespread Engagement Pathway is greater, corresponding to nearly 2·5 million life-years gained by 2050 and 13·7 million life-years gained by 2100.InterpretationReaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions is likely to lead to substantial benefits for public health in England and Wales, with the cumulative net benefits being correspondingly greater with a pathway that entails faster and more ambitious changes, especially in physical activity and diets.FundingNational Institute for Health Research and the Wellcome Trust.
| S-EPMC7614840 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHomelessness in England and Wales is on the rise together with the mortality rate among homeless people. Many homeless people have a mental illness, which is a risk factor for suicide.AimsThis study used data from the National Confidential Inquiry into Suicide and Safety in Mental Health to examine demographic and clinical characteristics of homeless people who died by suicide and were in recent contact with mental health services.MethodWe have compared 514 patients (2% of the total sample) who died by suicide and who were reported as being homeless or having no fixed abode by their clinicians with patients in stable accommodation between 2000 and 2016 to identify differences in sociodemographic characteristics and clinical care.ResultsOur analysis suggests that homeless patients who died by suicide had more acute (alcohol: 47% v. 25%, P < 0.01, drug: 39% v. 15%, P < 0.01) and chronic (alcohol: 72% v. 44%, P > 0.01, drug: 64% v. 31%) substance misuse issues than patients in stable accommodation. Homeless patients were also more likely to die as in-patients (21% v. 10%, P < 0.01) or within 3 months of discharge (32% v. 19%, P < 0.01).ConclusionsHomeless patients who died by suicide more often had known risk factors for suicide than patients in stable accommodation. As a result of the higher percentages of post-discharge and in-patient suicides in homeless patients as well as the high prevalence of substance misuse, this study recommends closer integration of services as well as awareness of risks during in-patient admission and in the weeks immediately after discharge.
| S-EPMC8058935 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLittle has been reported on mortality following admissions at weekends for many gastrointestinal (GI) disorders. The aim was to establish whether GI disorders are susceptible to increased mortality following unscheduled admission on weekends compared with weekdays.MethodsRecord linkage was undertaken of national administrative inpatient and mortality data for people in England and Wales who were hospitalized as an emergency for one of 19 major GI disorders.ResultsThe study included 2 254 701 people in England and 155 464 in Wales. For 11 general surgical and medical GI disorders there were little, or no, significant weekend effects on mortality at 30 days in either country. There were large consistent weekend effects in both countries for severe liver disease (England: 26·2 (95 per cent c.i. 21·1 to 31·6) per cent; Wales: 32·0 (12·4 to 55·1 per cent) and GI cancer (England: 21·8 (19·1 to 24·5) per cent; Wales: 25·0 (15·0 to 35·9) per cent), which were lower in patients managed by surgeons. Admission rates were lower at weekends than on weekdays, most strongly for severe liver disease (by 43·3 per cent in England and 51·4 per cent in Wales) and GI cancer (by 44·6 and 52·8 per cent respectively). Both mortality and the weekend mortality effect for GI cancer were lower for patients managed by surgeons.DiscussionThere is little, or no, evidence of a weekend mortality effect for most major general surgical or medical GI disorders, but large weekend effects for GI cancer and severe liver disease. Lower admission rates at weekends indicate more severe cases. The findings for severe liver disease may suggest a lack of specialist hepatological resources. For cancers, reduced availability of end-of-life care in the community at weekends may be the cause.
| S-EPMC5656931 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains a leading cause of disability and death in the United States. The "COPD in the United States" project gathered data about the impact of COPD to highlight variability across states and provide a single point of access to data for state decision makers, the public health community and advocates. This report provides a summary of COPD-related morbidity and mortality in the United States and individual states during 2014-2015 (some metrics contain data from other years). Methods: We used data from multiple sources ( the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System [BRFSS], the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Wide-ranging ONline Data for Epidemiologic Research online database, the CDC's chronic disease indicators data, Centers from Medicare and Medicaid Services Chronic Conditions Data Warehouse, Medical Expenditures Panel Survey and the American Association of Cardiovascular and Pulmonary Rehabilitation Pulmonary Rehabilitation Directory) to estimate 10 national and state-specific COPD metrics (prevalence, hospitalizations and emergency department visits, 30-day hospital readmissions, mortality, vaccinations, smoking prevalence, per capita medical cost, and the number of COPD patients per a pulmonary rehabilitation program) and to calculate average score across the 10 metrics. Additionally, we used BRFSS data to calculate the prevalence of common comorbid diseases among people who also report having a diagnosis of COPD. Results: During 2014-2015, 5.9% of adults (more than 15.9 million) reported having been told by their health care professional that they had COPD. The age-adjusted prevalence ranged from 3.7% for Puerto Rico and Hawaii, to 12% for West Virginia. The average score, 1 being best and 5 being worst, of the overall COPD burden based on the 10 key metrics ranged from 1.5 for Puerto Rico and Utah to 4.6 for West Virginia. Conclusion: The level of COPD morbidity and mortality is severe throughout the United States. There is considerable variability in COPD metrics by state. These differences may be useful in identifying and addressing policy gaps in the public health approach to COPD and in implementing the COPD National Action Plan.
| S-EPMC6361472 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The Covid-19 pandemic has claimed many lives in the UK and globally. The objective of this paper is to study whether the number of deaths not registered as Covid-19-related has increased compared to what would have been expected in the absence of the pandemic. Reasons behind this might include Covid-19 underreporting, avoiding visits to hospitals or GPs, and the effects of the lockdown. I used weekly ONS data on the number of deaths in England and Wales that did not officially involve Covid-19 over the period 2015-2020. Simply observing trends is not sufficient as spikes in deaths may occasionally occur. I thus followed a difference-in-differences econometric approach to study whether there was a relative increase in deaths not registered as Covid-19-related during the pandemic, compared to a control. Results suggest that there were an additional 968 weekly deaths that officially did not involve Covid-19, compared to what would have otherwise been expected. It is possible that some people are dying from Covid-19 without being diagnosed, and/or that there are excess deaths due to other causes as a result of the pandemic. Analysing the cause of death for any excess non-covid-19 deaths will shed light upon the reasons for the increase in such deaths and will help design appropriate policy responses to save lives.
| S-EPMC7836531 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAchieving health benefits while reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transport offers a potential policy win-win; the magnitude of potential benefits, however, is likely to vary. This study uses an Integrated Transport and Health Impact Modelling tool (ITHIM) to evaluate the health and environmental impacts of high walking and cycling transport scenarios for English and Welsh urban areas outside London.MethodsThree scenarios with increased walking and cycling and lower car use were generated based upon the Visions 2030 Walking and Cycling project. Changes to carbon dioxide emissions were estimated by environmental modelling. Health impact assessment modelling was used to estimate changes in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) resulting from changes in exposure to air pollution, road traffic injury risk, and physical activity. We compare the findings of the model with results generated using the World Health Organization's Health Economic Assessment of Transport (HEAT) tools.ResultsThis study found considerable reductions in disease burden under all three scenarios, with the largest health benefits attributed to reductions in ischemic heart disease. The pathways that produced the largest benefits were, in order, physical activity, road traffic injuries, and air pollution. The choice of dose response relationship for physical activity had a large impact on the size of the benefits. Modelling the impact on all-cause mortality rather than through individual diseases suggested larger benefits. Using the best available evidence we found fewer road traffic injuries for all scenarios compared with baseline but alternative assumptions suggested potential increases.ConclusionsMethods to estimate the health impacts from transport related physical activity and injury risk are in their infancy; this study has demonstrated an integration of transport and health impact modelling approaches. The findings add to the case for a move from car transport to walking and cycling, and have implications for empirical and modelling research.
| S-EPMC3541403 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Accurate forecasting of cardiovascular disease mortality is crucial to guide policy and programming efforts. Prior forecasts often have not incorporated past trends in rates of reduction in cardiovascular disease mortality. This creates uncertainties about future trends in cardiovascular disease mortality and disparities.To forecast US cardiovascular disease mortality and disparities to 2030, we developed a hierarchical bayesian model to determine and incorporate prior age, period, and cohort effects from 1979 to 2012, stratified by age, sex, and race, which we combined with expected demographic shifts to 2030. Data sources included the National Vital Statistics System, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) single-year population estimates, and US Bureau of Statistics 2012 national population projections. We projected coronary disease and stroke deaths to 2030, first on the basis of constant age, period, and cohort effects at 2012 values, as is most commonly done (conventional), and then with the use of more rigorous projections incorporating expected trends in age, period, and cohort effects (trend based). We primarily evaluated absolute mortality. The conventional model projected total coronary and stroke deaths by 2030 to increase by ?18% (67 000 additional coronary deaths per year) and 50% (64 000 additional stroke deaths per year). Conversely, the trend-based model projected that coronary mortality would decrease by 2030 by ?27% (79 000 fewer deaths per year) and stroke mortality would remain unchanged (200 fewer deaths per year). Health disparities will be improved in stroke deaths but not coronary deaths.After prior mortality trends and expected demographic shifts are accounted for, total US coronary deaths are expected to decline, whereas stroke mortality will remain relatively constant. Health disparities in stroke but not coronary deaths will be improved but not eliminated. These age, period, and cohort approaches offer more plausible predictions than conventional estimates.
| S-EPMC4783256 | biostudies-literature