Dataset Information

Spatio-temporal magnitude and direction of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) outbreaks in Bangladesh.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The number of outbreaks of HPAI-H5N1 reported by Bangladesh from 2007 through 2011 placed the country among the highest reported numbers worldwide. However, so far, the understanding of the epidemic progression, direction, intensity, persistence and risk variation of HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks over space and time in Bangladesh remains limited.

Methodology/principal findings

To determine the magnitude and spatial pattern of the highly pathogenic avian influenza A subtype H5N1 virus outbreaks over space and time in poultry from 2007 to 2009 in Bangladesh, we applied descriptive and analytical spatial statistics. Temporal distribution of the outbreaks revealed three independent waves of outbreaks that were clustered during winter and spring. The descriptive analyses revealed that the magnitude of the second wave was the highest as compared to the first and third waves. Exploratory mapping of the infected flocks revealed that the highest intensity and magnitude of the outbreaks was systematic and persistent in an oblique line that connects south-east to north-west through the central part of the country. The line follows the Brahmaputra-Meghna river system, the junction between Central Asian and East Asian flyways, and the major poultry trading route in Bangladesh. Moreover, several important migratory bird areas were identified along the line. Geostatistical analysis revealed significant latitudinal directions of outbreak progressions that have similarity to the detected line of intensity and magnitude.

Conclusion/significance

The line of magnitude and direction indicate the necessity of mobilizing maximum resources on this line to strengthen the existing surveillance.

SUBMITTER: Ahmed SS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3170297 | biostudies-literature | 2011

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Spatio-temporal magnitude and direction of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) outbreaks in Bangladesh.

Ahmed Syed S U SS Ersbøll Annette K AK Biswas Paritosh K PK Christensen Jens P JP Toft Nils N

PloS one 20110909 9

<h4>Background</h4>The number of outbreaks of HPAI-H5N1 reported by Bangladesh from 2007 through 2011 placed the country among the highest reported numbers worldwide. However, so far, the understanding of the epidemic progression, direction, intensity, persistence and risk variation of HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks over space and time in Bangladesh remains limited.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>To determine the magnitude and spatial pattern of the highly pathogenic avian influenza A subtype H5N1 v ...[more]

PMID: 21931683

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Project description:BACKGROUND: The agro-ecology and poultry husbandry of the south Asian and south-east Asian countries share common features, however, with noticeable differences. Hence, the ecological determinants associated with risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI-H5N1) outbreaks are expected to differ between Bangladesh and e.g., Thailand and Vietnam. The primary aim of the current study was to establish ecological determinants associated with the risk of HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks at subdistrict level in Bangladesh. The secondary aim was to explore the performance of two different statistical modeling approaches for unmeasured spatially correlated variation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: An ecological study at subdistrict level in Bangladesh was performed with 138 subdistricts with HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks during 2007-2008, and 326 subdistricts with no outbreaks. The association between ecological determinants and HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks was examined using a generalized linear mixed model. Spatial clustering of the ecological data was modeled using 1) an intrinsic conditional autoregressive (ICAR) model at subdistrict level considering their first order neighbors, and 2) a multilevel (ML) model with subdistricts nested within districts. Ecological determinants significantly associated with risk of HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks at subdistrict level were migratory birds' staging areas, river network, household density, literacy rate, poultry density, live bird markets, and highway network. Predictive risk maps were derived based on the resulting models. The resulting models indicate that the ML model absorbed some of the covariate effect of the ICAR model because of the neighbor structure implied in the two different models. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The study identified a new set of ecological determinants related to river networks, migratory birds' staging areas and literacy rate in addition to already known risk factors, and clarified that the generalized concept of free grazing duck and duck-rice cultivation interacted ecology are not significant determinants for Bangladesh. These findings will refine current understanding of the HPAI-H5N1 epidemiology in Bangladesh.

Project description:A large number of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks in poultry and wild birds have been reported in Europe since 2005. Distinct spatial patterns in poultry and wild birds suggest that different environmental drivers and potentially different spread mechanisms are operating. However, previous studies found no difference between these two outbreak types when only the effect of physical environmental factors was analysed. The influence of physical and anthropogenic environmental variables and interactions between the two has only been investigated for wild bird outbreaks. We therefore tested the effect of these environmental factors on HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in poultry, and the potential spread mechanism, and discussed how these differ from those observed in wild birds. Logistic regression analyses were used to quantify the relationship between HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in poultry and environmental factors. Poultry outbreaks increased with an increasing human population density combined with close proximity to lakes or wetlands, increased temperatures and reduced precipitation during the cold season. A risk map was generated based on the identified key factors. In wild birds, outbreaks were strongly associated with an increased Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and lower elevation, though they were similarly affected by climatic conditions as poultry outbreaks. This is the first study that analyses the differences in environmental drivers and spread mechanisms between poultry and wild bird outbreaks. Outbreaks in poultry mostly occurred in areas where the location of farms or trade areas overlapped with habitats for wild birds, whereas outbreaks in wild birds were mainly found in areas where food and shelters are available. The different environmental drivers suggest that different spread mechanisms might be involved: HPAI H5N1 spread to poultry via both poultry and wild birds, whereas contact with wild birds alone seems to drive the outbreaks in wild birds.

Project description:Mortality in ducks and geese caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) infection had not been previously identified in Bangladesh. In June-July 2011, we investigated mortality in ducks, geese and chickens with suspected H5N1 infection in a north-eastern district of the country to identify the aetiologic agent and extent of the outbreak and identify possible associated human infections. We surveyed households and farms with affected poultry flocks in six villages in Netrokona district and collected cloacal and oropharyngeal swabs from sick birds and tissue samples from dead poultry. We conducted a survey in three of these villages to identify suspected human influenza-like illness cases and collected nasopharyngeal and throat swabs. We tested all swabs by real-time RT-PCR, sequenced cultured viruses, and examined tissue samples by histopathology and immunohistochemistry to detect and characterize influenza virus infection. In the six villages, among the 240 surveyed households and 11 small-scale farms, 61% (1789/2930) of chickens, 47% (4816/10 184) of ducks and 73% (358/493) of geese died within 14 days preceding the investigation. Of 70 sick poultry swabbed, 80% (56/70) had detectable RNA for influenza A/H5, including 89% (49/55) of ducks, 40% (2/5) of geese and 50% (5/10) of chickens. We isolated virus from six of 25 samples; sequence analysis of the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase gene of these six isolates indicated clade 2.3.2.1a of H5N1 virus. Histopathological changes and immunohistochemistry staining of avian influenza viral antigens were recognized in the brain, pancreas and intestines of ducks and chickens. We identified ten human cases showing signs compatible with influenza-like illness; four were positive for influenza A/H3; however, none were positive for influenza A/H5. The recently introduced H5N1 clade 2.3.2.1a virus caused unusually high mortality in ducks and geese. Heightened surveillance in poultry is warranted to guide appropriate diagnostic testing and detect novel influenza strains.

Dataset Information

Spatio-temporal magnitude and direction of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) outbreaks in Bangladesh.

Background

Methodology/principal findings

Conclusion/significance

Publications

Spatio-temporal magnitude and direction of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) outbreaks in Bangladesh.

Similar Datasets

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