Dataset Information

Lack of confidence in approximate Bayesian computation model choice.

ABSTRACT: Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models. Grelaud et al. [(2009) Bayesian Anal 3:427-442] advocated the use of ABC for model choice in the specific case of Gibbs random fields, relying on an intermodel sufficiency property to show that the approximation was legitimate. We implemented ABC model choice in a wide range of phylogenetic models in the Do It Yourself-ABC (DIY-ABC) software [Cornuet et al. (2008) Bioinformatics 24:2713-2719]. We now present arguments as to why the theoretical arguments for ABC model choice are missing, because the algorithm involves an unknown loss of information induced by the use of insufficient summary statistics. The approximation error of the posterior probabilities of the models under comparison may thus be unrelated with the computational effort spent in running an ABC algorithm. We then conclude that additional empirical verifications of the performances of the ABC procedure as those available in DIY-ABC are necessary to conduct model choice.

SUBMITTER: Robert CP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3174657 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Lack of confidence in approximate Bayesian computation model choice.

Robert Christian P CP Cornuet Jean-Marie JM Marin Jean-Michel JM Pillai Natesh S NS

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20110829 37

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models. Grelaud et al. [(2009) Bayesian Anal 3:427-442] advocated the use of ABC for model choice in the specific case of Gibbs random fields, relying on an intermodel sufficiency property to show that the approximation was legitimate. We implemented ABC model choice in a wide range of phylogenetic models in the Do It Yourself-ABC (DIY-ABC) software [Cornuet et al. (2008) Bioinformatics 24 ...[more]

PMID: 21876135

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Project description:Admixture is a fundamental evolutionary process that has influenced genetic patterns in numerous species. Maximum-likelihood approaches based on allele frequencies and linkage-disequilibrium have been extensively used to infer admixture processes from genome-wide data sets, mostly in human populations. Nevertheless, complex admixture histories, beyond one or two pulses of admixture, remain methodologically challenging to reconstruct. We developed an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework to reconstruct highly complex admixture histories from independent genetic markers. We built the software package MetHis to simulate independent SNPs or microsatellites in a two-way admixed population for scenarios with multiple admixture pulses, monotonically decreasing or increasing recurring admixture, or combinations of these scenarios. MetHis allows users to draw model-parameter values from prior distributions set by the user, and, for each simulation, MetHis can calculate numerous summary statistics describing genetic diversity patterns and moments of the distribution of individual admixture fractions. We coupled MetHis with existing machine-learning ABC algorithms and investigated the admixture history of admixed populations. Results showed that random forest ABC scenario-choice could accurately distinguish among most complex admixture scenarios, and errors were mainly found in regions of the parameter space where scenarios were highly nested, and, thus, biologically similar. We focused on African American and Barbadian populations as two study-cases. We found that neural network ABC posterior parameter estimation was accurate and reasonably conservative under complex admixture scenarios. For both admixed populations, we found that monotonically decreasing contributions over time, from Europe and Africa, explained the observed data more accurately than multiple admixture pulses. This approach will allow for reconstructing detailed admixture histories when maximum-likelihood methods are intractable.

Dataset Information

Lack of confidence in approximate Bayesian computation model choice.

Publications

Lack of confidence in approximate Bayesian computation model choice.

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