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Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-river system in a century of climate change.

ABSTRACT: Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species.We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010-2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations.Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21(st) century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.

SUBMITTER: Cloern JE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3177826 | biostudies-literature | 2011

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-river system in a century of climate change.

Cloern James E JE Knowles Noah N Brown Larry R LR Cayan Daniel D Dettinger Michael D MD Morgan Tara L TL Schoellhamer David H DH Stacey Mark T MT van der Wegen Mick M Wagner R Wayne RW Jassby Alan D AD

PloS one 20110921 9

<h4>Background</h4>Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>We lin ...[more]

PMID: 21957451

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Project description:Understanding habitat associations is vital for conservation of at-risk marsh-endemic wildlife species, particularly those under threat from sea level rise. We modeled environmental and habitat associations of the marsh-endemic, Federally endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris, RERA) and co-occurrence with eight associated small mammal species from annual trap data, 1998-2014, in six estuarine marshes in North San Francisco Bay, California. Covariates included microhabitat metrics of elevation and vegetation species and cover; and landscape metrics of latitude-longitude, distance to anthropogenic features, and habitat patch size. The dominant cover was pickleweed (Salicornia pacifica) with 86% mean cover and 37 cm mean height, and bare ground with about 10% mean cover. We tested 38 variants of Bayesian network (BN) models to determine covariates that best account for presence of RERA and of all nine small mammal species. Best models had lowest complexity and highest classification accuracy. Among RERA presence models, three best BN models used covariates of latitude-longitude, distance to paved roads, and habitat patch size, with 0% error of false presence, 20% error of false nonpresence, and 20% overall error. The all-species presence models suggested that within the pickleweed marsh environment, RERA are mostly habitat generalists. Accounting for presence of other species did not improve prediction of RERA. Habitat attributes compared between RERA and the next most frequently captured species, California vole (Microtus californicus), suggested substantial habitat overlap, with RERA habitat being somewhat higher in marsh elevation, greater in percent cover of the dominant plant species, closer to urban areas, further from agricultural areas, and, perhaps most significant, larger in continuous size of marsh patch. Findings will inform conservation management of the marsh environment for RERA by identifying best microhabitat elements, landscape attributes, and adverse interspecific interactions.

Dataset Information

Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-river system in a century of climate change.

Publications

Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-river system in a century of climate change.

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