Estimating the under-five mortality rate using a bayesian hierarchical time series model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Millennium Development Goal 4 calls for a reduction in the under-five mortality rate by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015, which corresponds to an annual rate of decline of 4.4%. The United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation estimates under-five mortality in every country to measure progress. For the majority of countries, the estimates within a country are based on the assumption of a piece-wise constant rate of decline.

Methods and findings

This paper proposes an alternative method to estimate under-five mortality, such that the underlying rate of change is allowed to vary smoothly over time using a time series model. Information about the average rate of decline and changes therein is exchanged between countries using a bayesian hierarchic

SUBMITTER: Alkema L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3182159 | biostudies-literature | 2011

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature