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The effect of heterogeneity on invasion in spatial epidemics: from theory to experimental evidence in a model system.

ABSTRACT: Heterogeneity in host populations is an important factor affecting the ability of a pathogen to invade, yet the quantitative investigation of its effects on epidemic spread is still an open problem. In this paper, we test recent theoretical results, which extend the established "percolation paradigm" to the spread of a pathogen in discrete heterogeneous host populations. In particular, we test the hypothesis that the probability of epidemic invasion decreases when host heterogeneity is increased. We use replicated experimental microcosms, in which the ubiquitous pathogenic fungus Rhizoctonia solani grows through a population of discrete nutrient sites on a lattice, with nutrient sites representing hosts. The degree of host heterogeneity within different populations is adjusted by changing the proportion and the nutrient concentration of nutrient sites. The experimental data are analysed via Bayesian inference methods, estimating pathogen transmission parameters for each individual population. We find a significant, negative correlation between heterogeneity and the probability of pathogen invasion, thereby validating the theory. The value of the correlation is also in remarkably good agreement with the theoretical predictions. We briefly discuss how our results can be exploited in the design and implementation of disease control strategies.

SUBMITTER: Neri FM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3182855 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The effect of heterogeneity on invasion in spatial epidemics: from theory to experimental evidence in a model system.

Neri Franco M FM Bates Anne A Füchtbauer Winnie S WS Pérez-Reche Francisco J FJ Taraskin Sergei N SN Otten Wilfred W Bailey Douglas J DJ Gilligan Christopher A CA

PLoS computational biology 20110929 9

Heterogeneity in host populations is an important factor affecting the ability of a pathogen to invade, yet the quantitative investigation of its effects on epidemic spread is still an open problem. In this paper, we test recent theoretical results, which extend the established "percolation paradigm" to the spread of a pathogen in discrete heterogeneous host populations. In particular, we test the hypothesis that the probability of epidemic invasion decreases when host heterogeneity is increased ...[more]

PMID: 21980273

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Project description:ObjectivesThis work was designed to adapt Geographical Information System-based spatial analysis to the study of historical epidemics. We mapped "plague" deaths during three epidemics of the early 15th century, analyzed spatial distributions by applying the Kulldorff's method, and determined their relationships with the distribution of socio-professional categories in the city of Dijon.Materials and methodsOur study was based on a database including 50 annual tax registers (established from 1376 to 1447) indicating deaths and survivors among the heads of households, their home location, tax level and profession. The households of the deceased and survivors during 6 years with excess mortality were individually located on a georeferenced medieval map, established by taking advantage of the preserved geography of the historical center of Dijon. We searched for clusters of heads of households characterized by shared tax levels (high-tax payers, the upper decile; low-tax payers, the half charged at the minimum level) or professional activities and for clusters of differential mortality.ResultsHigh-tax payers were preferentially in the northern intramural part, as well as most wealthy or specialized professionals, whereas low-tax payers were preferentially in the southern part. During two epidemics, in 1400-1401 and 1428, areas of higher mortality were found in the northern part whereas areas of lower mortality were in the southern one. A high concentration of housing and the proximity to food stocks were common features of the most affected areas, creating suitable conditions for rats to pullulate. A third epidemic, lasting from 1438 to 1440 had a different and evolving geography: cases were initially concentrated around the southern gate, at the confluence of three rivers, they were then diffuse, and ended with residual foci of deaths in the northern suburb.ConclusionUsing a selected historical source, we designed an approach allowing spatial analysis of urban medieval epidemics. Our results fit with the view that the 1400-1401 epidemic was a Black Death recurrence. They suggest that this was also the case in 1428, whereas in 1438-1440 a different, possibly waterborne, disease was involved.

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The effect of heterogeneity on invasion in spatial epidemics: from theory to experimental evidence in a model system.

Publications

The effect of heterogeneity on invasion in spatial epidemics: from theory to experimental evidence in a model system.

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