The hot (invisible?) hand: can time sequence patterns of success/failure in sports be modeled as repeated random independent trials?
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Yaari G
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3187751 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Streaks of success have always fascinated people and a lot of research has been conducted to identify whether the "hot hand" effect is real. While sports have provided an appropriate platform for studying this phenomenon, the majority of existing literature examines scenarios in a vacuum with results that might or might not be applicable in the wild. In this study, we build on the existing literature and develop an appropriate framework to quantify the extent to which success can come in streaks-beyond the stroke of chance-in a natural environment. Considering in-game basketball game situations, our analysis provides statistical evidence that individual players do indeed exhibit the hot hand in varying degrees, that is, individual players can consistently get in a streak of successful shots beyond random chance. However, as a whole, the average player exhibits shooting regression, that is, after consecutive makes he tends to perform below expectations. Even though our results are based on a sports setting, we believe that our study provides a path towards thinking of the hot hand beyond a laboratory-like, controlled environment. This is crucial if we want to use similar results to enhance our decision making and better understand short and long term outcomes of repeated decisions.
| S-EPMC8789340 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHand injuries are common in sports and associated with high dropout rates and costs. Hence, efforts should strive for further risk prevention measures in order to increase safety in sports. This implies knowledge of sports injury risk profiles. So far, major surveillance programs exist mainly in Anglo-American countries, reflecting the specific concerns of sports in this part of the world. Data on sports injuries within Europe are scarce. As sports behaviour appears to vary demographically, we hypothesised that risk injury profiles differ as well.MethodsTo assess whether the described sports injuries of the hand are applicable to the German population, we performed a five-year retrospective, single-centre analysis of sports-related hand injuries, using data from the Enterprise Clinical Research Data Warehouse of the Hannover Medical School.ResultsNotable differences in comparison to other data were observed. Ball sports, cycling and equestrian sports caused most of the recorded hand injuries, which were predominantly fractures of the wrist and hand. Hand injuries in equestrian sports were associated with significantly higher operation and hospitalisation rates as well as a significantly longer inpatient treatment.ConclusionRisk profiles for sports-related hand injuries appear to differ not only in terms of age- and sex, but also geographically. Nation- and Europe-wide hand trauma registries as well as a broad registry participation are necessary in order to accurately assess the risk patterns in Europe; henceforth reducing hand injuries and their sequelae.
| S-EPMC7724715 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We investigate the predictability and persistence of individual and team performance (hot-hand effect) by analyzing the complete recorded history of international cricket. We introduce an original temporal representation of performance streaks, which is suitable to be modelled as a self-exciting point process. We confirm the presence of predictability and hot-hands across the individual performance and the absence of the same in team performance and game outcome. Thus, Cricket is a game of skill for individuals and a game of chance for the teams. Our study contributes to recent historiographical debates concerning the presence of persistence in individual and collective productivity and success. The introduction of several metrics and methods can be useful to test and exploit clustering of performance in the study of human behavior and design of algorithms for predicting success.
| S-EPMC9270381 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This paper explores the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in elite sports. We approach the topic from two perspectives. Firstly, we provide a literature based overview of AI success stories in areas other than sports. We identified multiple approaches in the area of Machine Perception, Machine Learning and Modeling, Planning and Optimization as well as Interaction and Intervention, holding a potential for improving training and competition. Secondly, we discover the present status of AI use in elite sports. Therefore, in addition to another literature review, we interviewed leading sports scientist, which are closely connected to the main national service institute for elite sports in their countries. The analysis of this literature review and the interviews show that the most activity is carried out in the methodical categories of signal and image processing. However, projects in the field of modeling & planning have become increasingly popular within the last years. Based on these two perspectives, we extract deficits, issues and opportunities and summarize them in six key challenges faced by the sports analytics community. These challenges include data collection, controllability of an AI by the practitioners and explainability of AI results.
| S-EPMC9309390 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The global HIV epidemic cannot be controlled by current treatment or prevention strategies. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) using antiretrovirals is a promising approach to curbing the spread of HIV transmission. Recently, four clinical trials demonstrated favorable results when antiretroviral PrEP was administered topically or orally. However, two additional trials were unable to demonstrate a benefit, indicating that further study is required to define the populations and conditions under which PrEP will be effective. Adherence is highly correlated with protection, yet the exact level of adherence required is unknown. Future studies may require increased drug exposure testing and more objective methods to monitor adherence in real-time. Although the development of drug resistance in the PrEP trials has been low, it remains a concern, as therapeutic options could be compromised for those who seroconvert while on PrEP.
| S-EPMC3882078 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC3685516 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Listening to music before, during, or after sports is a common phenomenon, yet its functions and effects on performance, cognition, and behavior remain to be investigated. In this study we present a novel approach to the role of music in sports and exercise that focuses on the notion of musical self-enhancement (Elvers, 2016). We derived the following hypotheses from this framework: listening to motivational music will (i) enhance self-evaluative cognition, (ii) improve performance in a ball game, and (iii) evoke greater risk-taking behavior. To evaluate the hypotheses, we conducted a between-groups experiment (N = 150) testing the effectiveness of both an experimenter playlist and a participant-selected playlist in comparison to a no-music control condition. All participants performed a ball-throwing task developed by Decharms and Davé (1965), consisting of two parts: First, participants threw the ball from fixed distances into a funnel basket. During this task, performance was measured. In the second part, the participants themselves chose distances from the basket, which allowed their risk-taking behavior to be assessed. The results indicate that listening to motivational music led to greater risk taking but did not improve ball-throwing performance. This effect was more pronounced in male participants and among those who listened to their own playlists. Furthermore, self-selected music enhanced state self-esteem in participants who were performing well but not in those who were performing poorly. We also discuss further implications for the notion of musical self-enhancement.
| S-EPMC5702473 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Adaptive success in social animals depends on an ability to infer the likely actions of others. Little is known about the neural computations that underlie this capacity. Here, we show that the brain models the values and choices of others even when these values are currently irrelevant. These modeled choices use the same computations that underlie our own choices, but are resolved in a distinct neighboring medial prefrontal brain region. Crucially, however, when subjects choose on behalf of a partner instead of themselves, these regions exchange their functional roles. Hence, regions that represented values of the subject's executed choices now represent the values of choices executed on behalf of the partner, and those that previously modeled the partner now model the subject. These data tie together neural computations underlying self-referential and social inference, and in so doing establish a new functional axis characterizing the medial wall of prefrontal cortex.
| S-EPMC3458212 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Hot-air hand dryers in multiple men's and women's bathrooms in three basic science research areas in an academic health center were screened for their deposition on plates of (i) total bacteria, some of which were identified, and (ii) a kanamycin-resistant Bacillus subtilis strain, PS533, spores of which are produced in large amounts in one basic science research laboratory. Plates exposed to hand dryer air for 30 s averaged 18 to 60 colonies/plate; but interior hand dryer nozzle surfaces had minimal bacterial levels, plates exposed to bathroom air for 2 min with hand dryers off averaged ≤1 colony, and plates exposed to bathroom air moved by a small fan for 20 min had averages of 15 and 12 colonies/plate in two buildings tested. Retrofitting hand dryers with HEPA filters reduced bacterial deposition by hand dryers ∼4-fold, and potential human pathogens were recovered from plates exposed to hand dryer air whether or not a HEPA filter was present and from bathroom air moved by a small fan. Spore-forming colonies, identified as B. subtilis PS533, averaged ∼2.5 to 5% of bacteria deposited by hand dryers throughout the basic research areas examined regardless of distance from the spore-forming laboratory, and these were almost certainly deposited as spores. Comparable results were obtained when bathroom air was sampled for spores. These results indicate that many kinds of bacteria, including potential pathogens and spores, can be deposited on hands exposed to bathroom hand dryers and that spores could be dispersed throughout buildings and deposited on hands by hand dryers.IMPORTANCE While there is evidence that bathroom hand dryers can disperse bacteria from hands or deposit bacteria on surfaces, including recently washed hands, there is less information on (i) the organisms dispersed by hand dryers, (ii) whether hand dryers provide a reservoir of bacteria or simply blow large amounts of bacterially contaminated air, and (iii) whether bacterial spores are deposited on surfaces by hand dryers. Consequently, this study has implications for the control of opportunistic bacterial pathogens and spores in public environments including health care settings. Within a large building, potentially pathogenic bacteria, including bacterial spores, may travel between rooms, and subsequent bacterial/spore deposition by hand dryers is a possible mechanism for spread of infectious bacteria, including spores of potential pathogens if present.
| S-EPMC5881072 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveThis systematic review was conducted to analyze the existing evidence on the effects of strength training (ST) and complex/contrast training (CCT) on repeated sprint ability (RSA) in team sports players.MethodsA systematic review of the literature was performed following the PRISMA statement. PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus databases were used. Original full-text articles were analyzed, without date restriction until May 26, 2024, written in English, peer-reviewed, and for eligibility must have included (1) male or female team sports players, amateur or professional category, without age restriction (2) lower extremity ST and/or CCT program (3) active control group (4) running RSA test (e.g., repeated shuttle sprint ability test or straight-line repeated sprint ability test) before and after the intervention period (5) controlled trial.ResultsA total of 3,376 studies were identified and screened. Finally, 10 articles were included based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria, all with moderate methodological quality according to the PEDro scale. The best time, mean time, and total time presented significant pre and post-test changes, using ST in 3, 2, and 1 experimental groups, respectively, and using CCT in 1, 1, and 1 experimental groups, respectively, with almost no differences in the percentage decrement most commonly reported in RSA tests. There were no changes in the control groups.ConclusionTogether, ST performed in a range of maximal power provides benefits in the best time and mean time and performed between 80 to 95% of 1 repetition maximum (RM) provides benefits in the best time, mean time, and total time in RSA tests. CCT performed between 75 to 90% of 1 RM combined with jumps and sprints provides benefits in the best time, mean time, and total time in RSA test, but no unaltered percentage decrement in ST and CCT in elite and semi-professional team sport players.
| S-EPMC11313415 | biostudies-literature