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Progression along the bipolar spectrum: a longitudinal study of predictors of conversion from bipolar spectrum conditions to bipolar I and II disorders.

ABSTRACT: Little longitudinal research has examined progression to more severe bipolar disorders in individuals with "soft" bipolar spectrum conditions. We examine rates and predictors of progression to bipolar I and II diagnoses in a nonpatient sample of college-age participants (n = 201) with high General Behavior Inventory scores and childhood or adolescent onset of "soft" bipolar spectrum disorders followed longitudinally for 4.5 years from the Longitudinal Investigation of Bipolar Spectrum (LIBS) project. Of 57 individuals with initial cyclothymia or bipolar disorder not otherwise specified (BiNOS) diagnoses, 42.1% progressed to a bipolar II diagnosis and 10.5% progressed to a bipolar I diagnosis. Of 144 individuals with initial bipolar II diagnoses, 17.4% progressed to a bipolar I diagnosis. Consistent with hypotheses derived from the clinical literature and the Behavioral Approach System (BAS) model of bipolar disorder, and controlling for relevant variables (length of follow-up, initial depressive and hypomanic symptoms, treatment-seeking, and family history), high BAS sensitivity (especially BAS Fun Seeking) predicted a greater likelihood of progression to bipolar II disorder, whereas early age of onset and high impulsivity predicted a greater likelihood of progression to bipolar I (high BAS sensitivity and Fun-Seeking also predicted progression to bipolar I when family history was not controlled). The interaction of high BAS and high Behavioral Inhibition System (BIS) sensitivities also predicted greater likelihood of progression to bipolar I. We discuss implications of the findings for the bipolar spectrum concept, the BAS model of bipolar disorder, and early intervention efforts.

SUBMITTER: Alloy LB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3192298 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Progression along the bipolar spectrum: a longitudinal study of predictors of conversion from bipolar spectrum conditions to bipolar I and II disorders.

Alloy Lauren B LB Urošević Snežana S Abramson Lyn Y LY Jager-Hyman Shari S Nusslock Robin R Whitehouse Wayne G WG Hogan Michael M

Journal of abnormal psychology 20110613 1

Little longitudinal research has examined progression to more severe bipolar disorders in individuals with "soft" bipolar spectrum conditions. We examine rates and predictors of progression to bipolar I and II diagnoses in a nonpatient sample of college-age participants (n = 201) with high General Behavior Inventory scores and childhood or adolescent onset of "soft" bipolar spectrum disorders followed longitudinally for 4.5 years from the Longitudinal Investigation of Bipolar Spectrum (LIBS) pro ...[more]

PMID: 21668080

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Project description:The authors sought to assess dimensional symptomatic predictors of new-onset bipolar spectrum disorders in youths at familial risk of bipolar disorder ("at-risk" youths).Offspring 6-18 years old of parents with bipolar I or II disorder (N=359) and community comparison offspring (N=220) were recruited. At baseline, 8.4% of the offspring of bipolar parents had a bipolar spectrum disorder. Over 8 years, 14.7% of offspring for whom follow-up data were available (44/299) developed a new-onset bipolar spectrum disorder (15 with bipolar I or II disorder). Measures collected at baseline and follow-up were reduced using factor analyses, and factors (both at baseline and at the visit prior to conversion or last contact) were assessed as predictors of new-onset bipolar spectrum disorders.Relative to comparison offspring, at-risk and bipolar offspring had higher baseline levels of anxiety/depression, inattention/disinhibition, externalizing, subsyndromal manic, and affective lability symptoms. The strongest predictors of new-onset bipolar spectrum disorders were baseline anxiety/depression, baseline and proximal affective lability, and proximal subsyndromal manic symptoms (p<0.05). While affective lability and anxiety/depression were elevated throughout follow-up in those who later developed a bipolar spectrum disorder, manic symptoms increased up to the point of conversion. A path analysis supported the hypothesis that affective lability at baseline predicts a new-onset bipolar spectrum disorder in part through increased manic symptoms at the visit prior to conversion; earlier parental age at mood disorder onset was also significantly associated with an increased risk of conversion. While youths without anxiety/depression, affective lability, and mania (and with a parent with older age at mood disorder onset) had a 2% predicted chance of conversion to a bipolar spectrum disorder, those with all risk factors had a 49% predicted chance of conversion.Dimensional measures of anxiety/depression, affective lability, and mania are important predictors of new-onset bipolar spectrum disorders in at-risk youths. These symptoms emerged from among numerous other candidates, underscoring the potential clinical and research utility of these findings.

Project description:BackgroundCurrent operational diagnostic systems have substantial limitations for lifetime diagnostic classification of bipolar spectrum disorders. Issues include: (1) It is difficult to operationalize the integration of diverse episodes of psychopathology, (2) Hierarchies lead to loss of information, (3) Boundaries between diagnostic categories are often arbitrary, (4) Boundaries between categories usually require a major element of subjective interpretation, (5) Available diagnostic categories are relatively unhelpful in distinguishing severity, (6) "Not Otherwise Specified (NOS)" categories are highly heterogeneous, (7) Subclinical cases are not accommodated usefully within the current diagnostic categories. This latter limitation is particularly pertinent in the context of the increasing evidence for the existence of a broader bipolar spectrum than has been acknowledged within existing classifications.MethodWe have developed a numerical rating system, the Bipolar Affective Disorder Dimension Scale, BADDS, that can be used as an adjunct to conventional best-estimate lifetime diagnostic procedures. The scale definitions were informed by (a) the current concepts of mood syndrome recognized within DSMIV and ICD10, (b) the literature regarding severity of episodes, and (c) our own clinical experience. We undertook an iterative process in which we initially agreed scale definitions, piloted their use on sets of cases and made modifications to improve utility and reliability.ResultsBADDS has four dimensions, each rated as an integer on a 0 - 100 scale, that measure four key domains of lifetime psychopathology: Mania (M), Depression (D), Psychosis (P) and Incongruence (I). In our experience it is easy to learn, straightforward to use, has excellent inter-rater reliability and retains the key information required to make diagnoses according to DSMIV and ICD10.ConclusionsUse of BADDS as an adjunct to conventional categorical diagnosis provides a richer description of lifetime psychopathology that (a) can accommodate sub-clinical features, (b) discriminate between illness severity amongst individuals within a single conventional diagnostic category, and (c) demonstrate the similarity between the illness experience of individuals who have been classified into different disease categories but whose illnesses both fall near the boundaries between the two categories. BADDS may be useful for researchers and clinicians who are interested in description and classification of lifetime psychopathology of individuals with disorders lying on the bipolar spectrum.

Dataset Information

Progression along the bipolar spectrum: a longitudinal study of predictors of conversion from bipolar spectrum conditions to bipolar I and II disorders.

Publications

Progression along the bipolar spectrum: a longitudinal study of predictors of conversion from bipolar spectrum conditions to bipolar I and II disorders.

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