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Progression along the bipolar spectrum: a longitudinal study of predictors of conversion from bipolar spectrum conditions to bipolar I and II disorders.

ABSTRACT: Little longitudinal research has examined progression to more severe bipolar disorders in individuals with "soft" bipolar spectrum conditions. We examine rates and predictors of progression to bipolar I and II diagnoses in a nonpatient sample of college-age participants (n = 201) with high General Behavior Inventory scores and childhood or adolescent onset of "soft" bipolar spectrum disorders followed longitudinally for 4.5 years from the Longitudinal Investigation of Bipolar Spectrum (LIBS) project. Of 57 individuals with initial cyclothymia or bipolar disorder not otherwise specified (BiNOS) diagnoses, 42.1% progressed to a bipolar II diagnosis and 10.5% progressed to a bipolar I diagnosis. Of 144 individuals with initial bipolar II diagnoses, 17.4% progressed to a bipolar I diagnosis. Consistent with hypotheses derived from the clinical literature and the Behavioral Approach System (BAS) model of bipolar disorder, and controlling for relevant variables (length of follow-up, initial depressive and hypomanic symptoms, treatment-seeking, and family history), high BAS sensitivity (especially BAS Fun Seeking) predicted a greater likelihood of progression to bipolar II disorder, whereas early age of onset and high impulsivity predicted a greater likelihood of progression to bipolar I (high BAS sensitivity and Fun-Seeking also predicted progression to bipolar I when family history was not controlled). The interaction of high BAS and high Behavioral Inhibition System (BIS) sensitivities also predicted greater likelihood of progression to bipolar I. We discuss implications of the findings for the bipolar spectrum concept, the BAS model of bipolar disorder, and early intervention efforts.

SUBMITTER: Alloy LB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3192298 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Progression along the bipolar spectrum: a longitudinal study of predictors of conversion from bipolar spectrum conditions to bipolar I and II disorders.

Alloy Lauren B LB Urošević Snežana S Abramson Lyn Y LY Jager-Hyman Shari S Nusslock Robin R Whitehouse Wayne G WG Hogan Michael M

Journal of abnormal psychology 20110613 1

Little longitudinal research has examined progression to more severe bipolar disorders in individuals with "soft" bipolar spectrum conditions. We examine rates and predictors of progression to bipolar I and II diagnoses in a nonpatient sample of college-age participants (n = 201) with high General Behavior Inventory scores and childhood or adolescent onset of "soft" bipolar spectrum disorders followed longitudinally for 4.5 years from the Longitudinal Investigation of Bipolar Spectrum (LIBS) pro ...[more]

PMID: 21668080

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Project description:The authors sought to assess dimensional symptomatic predictors of new-onset bipolar spectrum disorders in youths at familial risk of bipolar disorder ("at-risk" youths).Offspring 6-18 years old of parents with bipolar I or II disorder (N=359) and community comparison offspring (N=220) were recruited. At baseline, 8.4% of the offspring of bipolar parents had a bipolar spectrum disorder. Over 8 years, 14.7% of offspring for whom follow-up data were available (44/299) developed a new-onset bipolar spectrum disorder (15 with bipolar I or II disorder). Measures collected at baseline and follow-up were reduced using factor analyses, and factors (both at baseline and at the visit prior to conversion or last contact) were assessed as predictors of new-onset bipolar spectrum disorders.Relative to comparison offspring, at-risk and bipolar offspring had higher baseline levels of anxiety/depression, inattention/disinhibition, externalizing, subsyndromal manic, and affective lability symptoms. The strongest predictors of new-onset bipolar spectrum disorders were baseline anxiety/depression, baseline and proximal affective lability, and proximal subsyndromal manic symptoms (p<0.05). While affective lability and anxiety/depression were elevated throughout follow-up in those who later developed a bipolar spectrum disorder, manic symptoms increased up to the point of conversion. A path analysis supported the hypothesis that affective lability at baseline predicts a new-onset bipolar spectrum disorder in part through increased manic symptoms at the visit prior to conversion; earlier parental age at mood disorder onset was also significantly associated with an increased risk of conversion. While youths without anxiety/depression, affective lability, and mania (and with a parent with older age at mood disorder onset) had a 2% predicted chance of conversion to a bipolar spectrum disorder, those with all risk factors had a 49% predicted chance of conversion.Dimensional measures of anxiety/depression, affective lability, and mania are important predictors of new-onset bipolar spectrum disorders in at-risk youths. These symptoms emerged from among numerous other candidates, underscoring the potential clinical and research utility of these findings.

Dataset Information

Progression along the bipolar spectrum: a longitudinal study of predictors of conversion from bipolar spectrum conditions to bipolar I and II disorders.

Publications

Progression along the bipolar spectrum: a longitudinal study of predictors of conversion from bipolar spectrum conditions to bipolar I and II disorders.

Similar Datasets

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