Dataset Information

The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis.

ABSTRACT: Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500-1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560-1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined "golden" and "dark" ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere.

SUBMITTER: Zhang DD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3198350 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis.

Zhang David D DD Lee Harry F HF Wang Cong C Li Baosheng B Pei Qing Q Zhang Jane J An Yulun Y

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20111003 42

Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500-1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560-1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to t ...[more]

PMID: 21969578

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Dataset Information

The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis.

Publications

The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis.

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