Project description:BACKGROUND: Confirmed H1N1 cases during late spring and summer 2009 in various countries showed a substantial age shift between importations and local transmission cases, with adults mainly responsible for seeding unaffected regions and children most frequently driving community outbreaks. METHODS: We introduce a multi-host stochastic metapopulation model with two age classes to analytically investigate the role of a heterogeneously mixing population and its associated non-homogeneous travel behaviors on the risk of a major epidemic. We inform the model with demographic data, contact data and travel statistics of Europe and Mexico, and calibrate it to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic early outbreak. We allow for variations of the model parameters to explore the conditions of invasion under different scenarios. RESULTS: We derive the expression for the potential of global invasion of the epidemic that depends on the transmissibility of the pathogen, the transportation network and mobility features, the demographic profile and the mixing pattern. Higher assortativity in the contact pattern greatly increases the probability of spatial containment of the epidemic, this effect being contrasted by an increase in the social activity of adults vs. children. Heterogeneous features of the mobility network characterizing its topology and traffic flows strongly favor the invasion of the pathogen at the spatial level, as also a larger fraction of children traveling. Variations in the demographic profile and mixing habits across countries lead to heterogeneous outbreak situations. Model results are compatible with the H1N1 spatial transmission dynamics observed. CONCLUSIONS: This work illustrates the importance of considering age-dependent mixing profiles and mobility features coupled together to study the conditions for the spatial invasion of an emerging influenza pandemic. Its results allow the immediate assessment of the risk of a major epidemic for a specific scenario upon availability of data, and the evaluation of the potential effectiveness of public health interventions targeting specific age groups, their interactions and mobility behaviors. The approach provides a general modeling framework that can be used for other types of partitions of the host population and applied to different settings.

Project description:Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza is affecting countries in all five continents, with most cases so far having been reported in North and South America and Europe, and children and young adults being the most susceptible age groups. To date, the clinical course of disease is typically mild, with low hospitalization and mortality rates. Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 is susceptible to oseltamivir and, although few clinical data are yet available, current information suggests that treatment with oseltamivir appears to be beneficial. Only isolated cases of resistance to the drug have been reported to date, in keeping with the low frequency observed in clinical studies involving patients infected with seasonal influenza viruses. Current health authority guidelines recommend the use of oseltamivir in infected adults and children who have or are at elevated risk for severe disease, including pregnant women; use during the pandemic in infants < 1 year has also been authorized in Europe and a number of other countries, including the USA and Canada. Before the onset of the current pandemic, F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd expanded annual production capacity for oseltamivir to 400 million treatment courses per year to meet anticipated demand. However, during an influenza pandemic, and despite increased production capabilities, resources are nonetheless likely to be initially in short supply. For this reason, Roche, in line with WHO recommendations, has advocated advance stockpiling of antivirals by governments as a pandemic preparedness measure. Between 2004 and December 2009, 350 million treatment courses were supplied to governments worldwide. Support for developing countries has been a priority. Roche has established a cluster of initiatives aimed at increasing access to Tamiflu for the world's developing economies, including, making donations to the WHO, establishing the Tamiflu Reserves Program (TRP) and sub-licensing and manufacturing contracts with local companies in Asia and Africa. Furthermore, Roche has published a document outlining how it would allocate limited supplies of Tamiflu during a pandemic, which are in line with WHO recommendations stating that 'resources should be used to provide the maximum possible health benefit'. Roche is also offering support such as reprocessing of expiring capsule stocks (in development) and shelf-life extension to support governments in the management of their stockpiles. Clinical studies, either sponsored by or supported by Roche, are in progress. These trials are designed to investigate the effectiveness of oseltamivir in patients infected with the pandemic virus in greater depth, and include high-dose studies, assessment of natural and drug-induced resistance, and response to treatment in high-risk populations such as young infants, immunocompromised patients and the severely ill.

Project description:Prior experience and the persisting threat of influenza pandemic indicate the need for global and local preparedness and public health response capacity. The pandemic of 2009 highlighted the importance of such planning and the value of prior efforts at all levels. Our review of the public health response to this pandemic in Pune, India, considers the challenges of integrating global and national strategies in local programmes and lessons learned for influenza pandemic preparedness.Global, national and local pandemic preparedness and response plans have been reviewed. In-depth interviews were undertaken with district health policy-makers and administrators who coordinated the pandemic response in Pune.In the absence of a comprehensive district-level pandemic preparedness plan, the response had to be improvised. Media reporting of the influenza pandemic and inaccurate information that was reported at times contributed to anxiety in the general public and to widespread fear and panic. Additional challenges included inadequate public health services and reluctance of private healthcare providers to treat people with flu-like symptoms. Policy-makers developed a response strategy that they referred to as the Pune plan, which relied on powers sanctioned by the Epidemic Act of 1897 and resources made available by the union health ministry, state health department and a government diagnostic laboratory in Pune.The World Health Organization's (WHO's) global strategy for pandemic control focuses on national planning, but state-level and local experience in a large nation like India shows how national planning may be adapted and implemented. The priority of local experience and requirements does not negate the need for higher level planning. It does, however, indicate the importance of local adaptability as an essential feature of the planning process. Experience and the implicit Pune plan that emerged are relevant for pandemic preparedness and other public health emergencies.

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Role of National Travel Health Network and Centre website during pandemic (H1N1) 2009.

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