Dataset Information

Availability of a pediatric trauma center in a disaster surge decreases triage time of the pediatric surge population: a population kinetics model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The concept of disaster surge has arisen in recent years to describe the phenomenon of severely increased demands on healthcare systems resulting from catastrophic mass casualty events (MCEs) such as natural disasters and terrorist attacks. The major challenge in dealing with a disaster surge is the efficient triage and utilization of the healthcare resources appropriate to the magnitude and character of the affected population in terms of its demographics and the types of injuries that have been sustained.

Results

In this paper a deterministic population kinetics model is used to predict the effect of the availability of a pediatric trauma center (PTC) upon the response to an arbitrary disaster surge as a function of the rates of pediatric patients' admission to adult and pediatric centers and the corresponding discharge rates of these centers. We find that adding a hypothetical pediatric trauma center to the response documented in an historical example (the Israeli Defense Forces field hospital that responded to the Haiti earthquake of 2010) would have allowed for a significant increase in the overall rate of admission of the pediatric surge cohort. This would have reduced the time to treatment in this example by approximately half. The time needed to completely treat all children affected by the disaster would have decreased by slightly more than a third, with the caveat that the PTC would have to have been approximately as fast as the adult center in discharging its patients. Lastly, if disaster death rates from other events reported in the literature are included in the model, availability of a PTC would result in a relative mortality risk reduction of 37%.

Conclusions

Our model provides a mathematical justification for aggressive inclusion of PTCs in planning for disasters by public health agencies.

SUBMITTER: Barthel ER

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3224559 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Availability of a pediatric trauma center in a disaster surge decreases triage time of the pediatric surge population: a population kinetics model.

Barthel Erik R ER Pierce James R JR Goodhue Catherine J CJ Ford Henri R HR Grikscheit Tracy C TC Upperman Jeffrey S JS

Theoretical biology & medical modelling 20111012

<h4>Background</h4>The concept of disaster surge has arisen in recent years to describe the phenomenon of severely increased demands on healthcare systems resulting from catastrophic mass casualty events (MCEs) such as natural disasters and terrorist attacks. The major challenge in dealing with a disaster surge is the efficient triage and utilization of the healthcare resources appropriate to the magnitude and character of the affected population in terms of its demographics and the types of inj ...[more]

PMID: 21992575

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Project description:BackgroundNatural disasters, conflict, and terrorism are major global causes of death and disability. Central to the healthcare response is triage, vital to ensure the right care is provided to the right patient at the right time. The ideal triage tool has high sensitivity for the highest priority (P1) patients with acceptably low over-triage. This study compared the performance of major incident triage tools in predicting P1 casualty status in adults in the prospective UK Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) registry.MethodsTARN patients aged 16+ years (January 2008-December 2017) were included. Ten existing triage tools were applied using patients' first recorded pre-hospital physiology. Patients were subsequently assigned triage categories (P1, P2, P3, Expectant or Dead) based on pre-defined, intervention-based criteria. Tool performance was assessed by comparing tool-predicted and intervention-based priority status.Findings195,709 patients were included; mortality was 7·0% (n=13,601); median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 9 (IQR 9-17); 97·1% sustained blunt injuries. 22,144 (11·3%) patients fulfilled intervention-based criteria for P1 status, exhibiting higher mortality (12·8% vs. 5·0%, p<0.001), increased intensive care requirement (52·4% vs 5·0%, p<0.001), and more severe injuries (median ISS 21 vs 9, p<0.001) compared with P2 patients.In 16-64 year olds, the highest performing tool was the Battlefield Casualty Drills (BCD) Triage Sieve (Prediction of P1 status: 70·4% sensitivity, over-triage 70·9%, area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) 0·068 [95%CI 0·676-0·684]). The UK National Ambulance Resilience Unit (NARU) Triage Sieve had sensitivity of 44·9%; over-triage 56·4%; AUC 0·666 (95%CI 0·662-0·670). All tools performed poorly amongst the elderly (65+ years).InterpretationThe BCD Triage Sieve performed best in this nationally representative population; we recommend it supersede the NARU Triage Sieve as the UK primary major incident triage tool. Validated triage category definitions are recommended for appraising future major incidents.FundingThis study is funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Surgical Reconstruction and Microbiology Research Centre. GVG also acknowledges support from the MRC Heath Data Research UK (HDRUK/CFC/01). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR, the Department of Health and Social Care, or the Ministry of Defence.

Project description:Background: Mechanical thrombectomy (MT) can improve the outcomes of patients with large vessel occlusion (LVO), but a minority of patients with LVO are treated and there are disparities in timely access to MT. In part, this is because in most regions, including Alabama, the emergency medical service (EMS) transports all patients with suspected stroke, regardless of severity, to the nearest stroke center. Consequently, patients with LVO may experience delayed arrival at stroke centers with MT capability and worse outcomes. Alabama's trauma communications center (TCC) coordinates EMS transport of trauma patients by trauma severity and regional hospital capability. Our aims are to develop a severity-based stroke triage (SBST) care model based on Alabama's trauma system, compare the effectiveness of this care pathway to current stroke triage in Alabama for improving broad, equitable, and timely access to MT, and explore stakeholder perceptions of the intervention's feasibility, appropriateness, and acceptability. Methods: This is a hybrid type 1 effectiveness-implementation study with a multi-phase mixed methods sequential design and an embedded observational stepped wedge cluster trial. We will extend TCC guided stroke severity assessment to all EMS regions in Alabama; conduct stakeholder interviews and focus groups to aid in development of region and hospital specific prehospital and inter-facility stroke triage plans for patients with suspected LVO; implement a phased rollout of TCC Coordinated SBST across Alabama's six EMS regions; and conduct stakeholder surveys and interviews to assess context-specific perceptions of the intervention. The primary outcome is the change in proportion of prehospital stroke system patients with suspected LVO who are treated with MT before and after implementation of TCC Coordinated SBST. Secondary outcomes include change in broad public health impact before and after implementation and stakeholder perceptions of the intervention's feasibility, appropriateness, and acceptability using a mixed methods approach. With 1200 to 1300 total observations over 36 months, we have 80% power to detect a 15% improvement in the primary endpoint. Discussion: This project, if successful, can demonstrate how the trauma system infrastructure can serve as the basis for a more integrated and effective system of emergency stroke care.

Dataset Information

Availability of a pediatric trauma center in a disaster surge decreases triage time of the pediatric surge population: a population kinetics model.

Background

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Availability of a pediatric trauma center in a disaster surge decreases triage time of the pediatric surge population: a population kinetics model.

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