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Nonlinear response of summer temperature to Holocene insolation forcing in Alaska.

ABSTRACT: Regional climate responses to large-scale forcings, such as precessional changes in solar irradiation and increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, may be nonlinear as a result of complex interactions among earth system components. Such nonlinear behaviors constitute a major source of climate "surprises" with important socioeconomic and ecological implications. Paleorecords are key for elucidating patterns and mechanisms of nonlinear responses to radiative forcing, but their utility has been greatly limited by the paucity of quantitative temperature reconstructions. Here we present Holocene July temperature reconstructions on the basis of midge analysis of sediment cores from three Alaskan lakes. Results show that summer temperatures during 10,000-5,500 calibrated years (cal) B.P. were generally lower than modern and that peak summer temperatures around 5,000 were followed by a decreasing trend toward the present. These patterns stand in stark contrast with the trend of precessional insolation, which decreased by ?10% from 10,000 y ago to the present. Cool summers before 5,500 cal B.P. coincided with extensive summer ice cover in the western Arctic Ocean, persistence of a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation, predominantly La Niña-like conditions, and variation in the position of the Alaskan treeline. These results illustrate nonlinear responses of summer temperatures to Holocene insolation radiative forcing in the Alaskan sub-Arctic, possibly because of state changes in the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation and associated land-atmosphere-ocean feedbacks.

SUBMITTER: Clegg BF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3228435 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Nonlinear response of summer temperature to Holocene insolation forcing in Alaska.

Clegg Benjamin F BF Kelly Ryan R Clarke Gina H GH Walker Ian R IR Hu Feng Sheng FS

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20111114 48

Regional climate responses to large-scale forcings, such as precessional changes in solar irradiation and increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, may be nonlinear as a result of complex interactions among earth system components. Such nonlinear behaviors constitute a major source of climate "surprises" with important socioeconomic and ecological implications. Paleorecords are key for elucidating patterns and mechanisms of nonlinear responses to radiative forcing, but their utility has been ...[more]

PMID: 22084085

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Project description:BackgroundRecent record-breaking hot temperatures in Alaska have raised concerns about the potential human health implications of heat exposure among this unacclimated population.ObjectivesWe estimated cardiorespiratory morbidity associated with days above summer (June-August) heat index (HI, apparent temperature) thresholds in three major population centers (Anchorage, Fairbanks, and the Matanuska-Susitna Valley) for the years 2015-2019.MethodsWe implemented time-stratified case-crossover analyses of emergency department (ED) visits for International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision codes indicative of heat illness and major cardiorespiratory diagnostic codes using data from the Alaska Health Facilities Data Reporting Program. Using conditional logistic regression models, we tested maximum hourly HI temperature thresholds between 21.1°C (70°F) and 30°C (86°F) for a single day, 2 consecutive days, and the absolute number of previous consecutive days above the threshold, adjusting for the daily average concentration of particulate matter ≤2.5μg.ResultsThere were increased odds of ED visits for heat illness above a HI threshold as low as 21.1°C (70°F) [odds ratio (OR)=13.84; 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.05, 47.29], and this increased risk continued for up to 4 d (OR=2.43; 95% CI: 1.15, 5.10). Asthma and pneumonia were the only respiratory outcomes positively associated with the HI: ED visits for both were highest the day after a heat event (Asthma: HI>27°C(80°F) OR=1.18; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.39; Pneumonia: HI>28°C(82°F) OR=1.40; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.84). There was a decreased odds of bronchitis-related ED visits when the HI was above thresholds of 21.1-28°C (70-82°F) across all lag days. We found stronger effects for ischemia and myocardial infarction (MI) than for respiratory outcomes. Multiple days of warm weather were associated with an increased risk of health impacts. For each additional preceding day above a HI of 22°C (72°F), the odds of ED visits related to ischemia increased 6% (95% CI: 1%, 12%); for each additional preceding day above a HI of 21.1°C (70°F), the odds of ED visits related to MI increased 7% (95% CI: 1%, 14%).DiscussionThis study demonstrates the importance of planning for extreme heat events and developing local guidance for heat warnings, even in areas with historically mild summertime climates. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11363.

Dataset Information

Nonlinear response of summer temperature to Holocene insolation forcing in Alaska.

Publications

Nonlinear response of summer temperature to Holocene insolation forcing in Alaska.

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