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A steep cline in ladybird melanism has decayed over 25 years: a genetic response to climate change?

ABSTRACT: A cline in the frequency of melanic morphs of the two-spot ladybird, Adalia bipunctata, was first surveyed in 1980 along a transect extending inland from the coast in the Netherlands. At that time, the frequency of melanics increased over some 40 km from 10% near the coast to nearly 60% inland. Additional surveys made in 1991 and 1995 demonstrated some progressive change in cline shape. New samples from 1998 and 2004 confirm these dynamics, and show that over a period of about 50 generations for the beetle, the cline had decayed rapidly to yield rather uniform frequencies of melanic morphs at around 20% along the whole transect by 2004. Climate data and evidence for thermal melanism in this species support our contention that these dynamics reflect a dramatic example of a rapid genetic response within populations to climate change and local selection.

SUBMITTER: Brakefield PM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3242634 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A steep cline in ladybird melanism has decayed over 25 years: a genetic response to climate change?

Brakefield P M PM de Jong P W PW

Heredity 20110727 6

A cline in the frequency of melanic morphs of the two-spot ladybird, Adalia bipunctata, was first surveyed in 1980 along a transect extending inland from the coast in the Netherlands. At that time, the frequency of melanics increased over some 40 km from 10% near the coast to nearly 60% inland. Additional surveys made in 1991 and 1995 demonstrated some progressive change in cline shape. New samples from 1998 and 2004 confirm these dynamics, and show that over a period of about 50 generations for ...[more]

PMID: 21792220

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Project description:We use seed count data from a New Zealand mono-specific mountain beech forest to test for decadal trends in seed production along an elevation gradient in relation to changes in climate. Seedfall was collected (1965 to 2009) from seed trays located on transect lines at fixed elevations along an elevation gradient (1020 to 1370 m). We counted the number of seeds in the catch of each tray, for each year, and determined the number of viable seeds. Climate variables were obtained from a nearby (<2 km) climate station (914-m elevation). Variables were the sum or mean of daily measurements, using periods within each year known to correlate with subsequent interannual variation in seed production. To determine trends in mean seed production, at each elevation, and climate variables, we used generalized least squares (GLS) regression. We demonstrate a trend of increasing total and viable seed production, particularly at higher elevations, which emerged from marked interannual variation. Significant changes in four seasonal climate variables had GLS regression coefficients consistent with predictions of increased seed production. These variables subsumed the effect of year in GLS regressions with a greater influence on seed production with increasing elevation. Regression models enforce a view that the sequence of climate variables was additive in their influence on seed production throughout a reproductive cycle spanning more than 2 years and including three summers. Models with the most support always included summer precipitation as the earliest variable in the sequence followed by summer maximum daily temperatures. We interpret this as reflecting precipitation driven increases in soil nutrient availability enhancing seed production at higher elevations rather than the direct effects of climate, stand development or rising atmospheric CO2 partial pressures. Greater sensitivity of tree seeding at higher elevations to changes in climate reveals how ecosystem responses to climate change will be spatially variable.

Dataset Information

A steep cline in ladybird melanism has decayed over 25 years: a genetic response to climate change?

Publications

A steep cline in ladybird melanism has decayed over 25 years: a genetic response to climate change?

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