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Modeling the spread of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in nursing homes for elderly.

ABSTRACT: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is endemic in many hospital settings, including nursing homes. It is an important nosocomial pathogen that causes mortality and an economic burden to patients, hospitals, and the community. The epidemiology of the bacteria in nursing homes is both hospital- and community-like. Transmission occurs via hands of health care workers (HCWs) and direct contacts among residents during social activities. In this work, mathematical modeling in both deterministic and stochastic frameworks is used to study dissemination of MRSA among residents and HCWs, persistence and prevalence of MRSA in a population, and possible means of controlling the spread of this pathogen in nursing homes. The model predicts that: (i) without strict screening and decolonization of colonized individuals at admission, MRSA may persist; (ii) decolonization of colonized residents, improving hand hygiene in both residents and HCWs, reducing the duration of contamination of HCWs, and decreasing the resident?staff ratio are possible control strategies; (iii) the mean time that a resident remains susceptible since admission may be prolonged by screening and decolonization treatment in colonized individuals; (iv) in the stochastic framework, the total number of colonized residents varies and may increase when the admission of colonized residents, the duration of colonization, the average number of contacts among residents, or the average number of contacts that each resident requires from HCWs increases; (v) an introduction of a colonized individual into an MRSA-free nursing home has a much higher probability of leading to a major outbreak taking off than an introduction of a contaminated HCW.

SUBMITTER: Chamchod F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3253090 | biostudies-literature | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modeling the spread of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in nursing homes for elderly.

Chamchod Farida F Ruan Shigui S

PloS one 20120106 1

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is endemic in many hospital settings, including nursing homes. It is an important nosocomial pathogen that causes mortality and an economic burden to patients, hospitals, and the community. The epidemiology of the bacteria in nursing homes is both hospital- and community-like. Transmission occurs via hands of health care workers (HCWs) and direct contacts among residents during social activities. In this work, mathematical modeling in both deter ...[more]

PMID: 22238650

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Project description:Nursing home residents are frequently colonized with various strains of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) but the intra-facility dynamics of strain-specific MRSA remains poorly understood. We aimed at identifying and quantifying the associations between acquisition and carriage of MRSA strains and their potential risk factors in community nursing homes using mathematical modeling.The data was collected during a longitudinal MRSA surveillance study in six nursing homes in South Central Wisconsin. MRSA cultures were obtained from subjects every 3 months for up to one year. MRSA isolates were subsequently strain-typed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), and their genetic similarity was established based on the Dice coefficients. Bayesian network analysis, logistic regression and elastic net were used to quantify the associations between acquisition and carriage of MRSA strains discriminated at 80% and 95% strain similarity thresholds and potentially modifiable resident characteristics including previous antibiotic exposure, comorbidity, medical devices, chronic wounds, functional and cognitive status and recent hospitalizations.Absence of severe cognitive impairment as well as presence of a wound, device and severe comorbidity was associated with elevated probability of USA100 carriage although there was a variation based on the combination of those risk factors. Residents with severe comorbidity and cognitive status and presence of device and wound were identified as certain carriers of USA100 in our sample. Residents with a chronic wound were more likely to carry USA100 MRSA (OR?=?2.77, 95% CI?=?1.37-5.87). Functional status was identified as an important determinant of carriage of USA100 and USA300 strains. Comorbidity and cognitive status were the two factors associated with carriage of all clonal groups in the study (USA100, USA300 and USA1200).The combination of Bayesian network analysis, logistic regression and elastic net can be used to identify associations between acquisition and carriage of MRSA strains and their potential risk factors in the face of scarce data. The revealed associations may be used to generate hypothesis for further study of determinants of acquisition and carriage of selected MRSA subtypes and to better inform infection control efforts in community nursing homes.

Project description:UnlabelledCommunity-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) was recognized worldwide during the 1990s; in less than a decade, several genetically distinct CA-MRSA lineages carrying Panton-Valentine leukocidin genes have emerged on every continent. Most notably, in the United States, the sequence type 18-IV (ST8-IV) clone known as USA300 has become highly prevalent, outcompeting methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) and other MRSA strains in both community and hospital settings. CA-MRSA bacteria are much less prevalent in Europe, where the European ST80-IV European CA-MRSA clone, USA300 CA-MRSA strains, and other lineages, such as ST22-IV, coexist. The question that arises is whether the USA300 CA-MRSA present in Europe (i) was imported once or on very few occasions, followed by a broad geographic spread, anticipating an increased prevalence in the future, or (ii) derived from multiple importations with limited spreading success. In the present study, we applied whole-genome sequencing to a collection of French USA300 CA-MRSA strains responsible for sporadic cases and micro-outbreaks over the past decade and United States ST8 MSSA and MRSA isolates. Genome-wide phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that the population structure of the French isolates is the product of multiple introductions dating back to the onset of the USA300 CA-MRSA clone in North America. Coalescent-based demography of the USA300 lineage shows that a strong expansion occurred during the 1990s concomitant with the acquisition of the arginine catabolic mobile element and antibiotic resistance, followed by a sharp decline initiated around 2008, reminiscent of the rise-and-fall pattern previously observed in the ST80 lineage. A future expansion of the USA300 lineage in Europe is therefore very unlikely.ImportanceTo trace the origin, evolution, and dissemination pattern of the USA300 CA-MRSA clone in France, we sequenced a collection of strains of this lineage from cases reported in France in the last decade and compared them with 431 ST8 strains from the United States. We determined that the French CA-MRSA USA300 sporadic and micro-outbreak isolates resulted from multiple independent introductions of the USA300 North American lineage. At a global level, in the transition from an MSSA lineage to a successful CA-MRSA clone, it first became resistant to multiple antibiotics and acquired the arginine catabolic mobile element and subsequently acquired resistance to fluoroquinolones, and these two steps were associated with a dramatic demographic expansion. This expansion was followed by the current stabilization and expected decline of this lineage. These findings highlight the significance of horizontal gene acquisitions and point mutations in the success of such disseminated clones and illustrate their cyclic and sporadic life cycle.

Dataset Information

Modeling the spread of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in nursing homes for elderly.

Publications

Modeling the spread of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in nursing homes for elderly.

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