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Predicting the distribution of intensive poultry farming in Thailand.

ABSTRACT: Intensification of animal production can be an important factor in the emergence of infectious diseases because changes in production structure influence disease transmission patterns. In 2004 and 2005, Thailand was subject to two highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic waves and large surveys were conducted of the poultry sector, providing detailed spatial data on various poultry types. This study analysed these data with the aim of establishing the distributions of extensive and intensive poultry farms, based on the number of birds per holder. Once poultry data were disaggregated into these two production systems, they were analysed in relation to anthropogenic factors using simultaneous autoregressive models. Intensive chicken production was clustered around the capital city of Bangkok and close to the main consumption and export centres. Intensively-raised ducks, mainly free-grazing, showed a distinct pattern with the highest densities distributed in a large area located in the floodplain of the Chao Phraya River. Accessibility to Bangkok, the percentage of irrigated areas and human population density were the most important predictors explaining the geographical distribution of intensively-raised poultry. The distribution of extensive poultry showed a higher predictability. Extensive poultry farms were distributed more homogeneously across the country and their distribution was best predicted by human population density.

SUBMITTER: Van Boeckel TP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3272562 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting the distribution of intensive poultry farming in Thailand.

Van Boeckel Thomas P TP Thanapongtharm Weerapong W Robinson Timothy T D'Aietti Laura L Gilbert Marius M

Agriculture, ecosystems & environment 20120301

Intensification of animal production can be an important factor in the emergence of infectious diseases because changes in production structure influence disease transmission patterns. In 2004 and 2005, Thailand was subject to two highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic waves and large surveys were conducted of the poultry sector, providing detailed spatial data on various poultry types. This study analysed these data with the aim of establishing the distributions of extensive and intensive p ...[more]

PMID: 22323841

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Project description:Since 1996 when Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza type H5N1 first emerged in southern China, numerous studies sought risk factors and produced risk maps based on environmental and anthropogenic predictors. However little attention has been paid to the link between the level of intensification of poultry production and the risk of outbreak. This study revised H5N1 risk mapping in Central and Western Thailand during the second wave of the 2004 epidemic. Production structure was quantified using a disaggregation methodology based on the number of poultry per holding. Population densities of extensively- and intensively-raised ducks and chickens were derived both at the sub-district and at the village levels. LandSat images were used to derive another previously neglected potential predictor of HPAI H5N1 risk: the proportion of water in the landscape resulting from floods. We used Monte Carlo simulation of Boosted Regression Trees models of predictor variables to characterize the risk of HPAI H5N1. Maps of mean risk and uncertainty were derived both at the sub-district and the village levels. The overall accuracy of Boosted Regression Trees models was comparable to that of logistic regression approaches. The proportion of area flooded made the highest contribution to predicting the risk of outbreak, followed by the densities of intensively-raised ducks, extensively-raised ducks and human population. Our results showed that as little as 15% of flooded land in villages is sufficient to reach the maximum level of risk associated with this variable. The spatial pattern of predicted risk is similar to previous work: areas at risk are mainly located along the flood plain of the Chao Phraya river and to the south-east of Bangkok. Using high-resolution village-level poultry census data, rather than sub-district data, the spatial accuracy of predictions was enhanced to highlight local variations in risk. Such maps provide useful information to guide intervention.

Project description:Detection of salmonellae within poultry environments is an important component of many food safety programs, but sampling approaches vary greatly and may not enable the detection of salmonellae when bacteria are present at a low prevalence or concentration. Intensive longitudinal sampling within caged sheds enabled us to undertake a longitudinal analysis of the spatial distribution of salmonellae in caged shed environments. Both the number of samples collected and location of sample collection within a poultry shed were important to ensure the best chance of detecting Salmonella spp. Differences in the within-shed spatial distribution of Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serovar Typhimurium [χ2(27, 1,538) = 54.4; P < 0.001] and Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serovar Infantis [χ2(27, 1,538) = 79.8; P < 0.0001] were identified. More than one Salmonella enterica serovar was detected in each shed on the same sampling occasion; 5% of all samples contained more than one serovar. Samples collected on the north side of the shed (odds ratio [OR], 1.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17-2.68), on the sheltered side of the shed (OR, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.26-2.89), and during winter (OR, 48.41; 95% CI, 23.56-104.19) were more likely to be positive for salmonellae. The within-shed differences observed in the both the sample prevalence and spatial location of the serovar detected indicate that there are important shed microenvironmental factors that influence the survival and/or distribution of salmonellae. These factors should be taken into consideration when environmental surveillance is undertaken for salmonellae in flocks housed in cage sheds.IMPORTANCE Routine epidemiological surveillance for salmonellae in poultry relies initially on environmental sampling. Intensive, spatially homogenous sampling, as conducted within this study, confirmed that the sampling methodology conducted within a poultry environment is a nontrivial part of sampling design. The frequency of sampling is especially important when the prevalence of Salmonella spp. is low. These factors must be taken into consideration in the design of studies for the detection of salmonellae in poultry sheds.

Project description:BackgroundAntimicrobial resistance (AMR), recognised as a serious and growing threat to global health, is promoted by multiple drivers, including antibiotic use in the livestock sector. Thus, understanding factors influencing antibiotic use in livestock production is essential to the design and implementation of effective interventions to reduce AMR. This qualitative study aimed to explore the experiences and views of the key actors associated with the use of antibiotics for pig farming in Thailand, from local farmers to officers in central government institutions.MethodsA total of 31 in-depth interviews were conducted with different categories of actors: pig farmers (n = 13), drug retailers (n = 5), veterinarians (n = 7), government officers (n = 3) and representatives of animal and human health associations (n = 2). Themes emerging from the interviews were identified and explored using thematic analysis. In addition, direct observations were conducted in the pig farms.ResultsThe findings highlight the multi-faceted nature of the views and practices that may contribute to misuse or overuse of antibiotics in the study locations, including misconceptions about the nature of antibiotics and AMR (particularly among smallholders), lack of facilities and financial means to establish an antibiotic-free farm, lack of sufficient training on AMR and antibiotic prescribing for veterinarians, the profit motive of pharmaceutical companies and their ties to farm consultants, and lack of sufficient regulatory oversight.ConclusionsOur study indicates a clear need to improve antibiotic use for pig production in Thailand. Farmers need better access to veterinary services and reliable information about animal health needs and antibiotics. Innovative investments in biosecurity could improve farm management and decrease reliance on antibiotics, although the cost of these interventions should be low to ensure wide uptake in the livestock sector. Lastly, further development of professional training and clinical guidelines, and the establishment of a code of conduct, would help improve antibiotic dispensing practices.

Dataset Information

Predicting the distribution of intensive poultry farming in Thailand.

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Predicting the distribution of intensive poultry farming in Thailand.

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