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Qualitative release assessment to estimate the likelihood of henipavirus entering the United Kingdom.

ABSTRACT: The genus Henipavirus includes Hendra virus (HeV) and Nipah virus (NiV), for which fruit bats (particularly those of the genus Pteropus) are considered to be the wildlife reservoir. The recognition of henipaviruses occurring across a wider geographic and host range suggests the possibility of the virus entering the United Kingdom (UK). To estimate the likelihood of henipaviruses entering the UK, a qualitative release assessment was undertaken. To facilitate the release assessment, the world was divided into four zones according to location of outbreaks of henipaviruses, isolation of henipaviruses, proximity to other countries where incidents of henipaviruses have occurred and the distribution of Pteropus spp. fruit bats. From this release assessment, the key findings are that the importation of fruit from Zone 1 and 2 and bat bushmeat from Zone 1 each have a Low annual probability of release of henipaviruses into the UK. Similarly, the importation of bat meat from Zone 2, horses and companion animals from Zone 1 and people travelling from Zone 1 and entering the UK was estimated to pose a Very Low probability of release. The annual probability of release for all other release routes was assessed to be Negligible. It is recommended that the release assessment be periodically re-assessed to reflect changes in knowledge and circumstances over time.

SUBMITTER: Snary EL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3273481 | biostudies-literature | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Qualitative release assessment to estimate the likelihood of henipavirus entering the United Kingdom.

Snary Emma L EL Ramnial Vick V Breed Andrew C AC Stephenson Ben B Field Hume E HE Fooks Anthony R AR

PloS one 20120206 2

The genus Henipavirus includes Hendra virus (HeV) and Nipah virus (NiV), for which fruit bats (particularly those of the genus Pteropus) are considered to be the wildlife reservoir. The recognition of henipaviruses occurring across a wider geographic and host range suggests the possibility of the virus entering the United Kingdom (UK). To estimate the likelihood of henipaviruses entering the UK, a qualitative release assessment was undertaken. To facilitate the release assessment, the world was ...[more]

PMID: 22328916

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Project description:BackgroundThe focus in dairy cattle breeding is gradually shifting from production to functional traits and genetic parameters of calving traits are estimated more frequently. However, across countries, various statistical models are used to estimate these parameters. This study evaluates different models for calving ease and stillbirth in United Kingdom Holstein-Friesian cattle.MethodsData from first and later parity records were used. Genetic parameters for calving ease, stillbirth and gestation length were estimated using the restricted maximum likelihood method, considering different models i.e. sire (-maternal grandsire), animal, univariate and bivariate models. Gestation length was fitted as a correlated indicator trait and, for all three traits, genetic correlations between first and later parities were estimated. Potential bias in estimates was avoided by acknowledging a possible environmental direct-maternal covariance. The total heritable variance was estimated for each trait to discuss its theoretical importance and practical value. Prediction error variances and accuracies were calculated to compare the models.Results and discussionOn average, direct and maternal heritabilities for calving traits were low, except for direct gestation length. Calving ease in first parity had a significant and negative direct-maternal genetic correlation. Gestation length was maternally correlated to stillbirth in first parity and directly correlated to calving ease in later parities. Multi-trait models had a slightly greater predictive ability than univariate models, especially for the lowly heritable traits. The computation time needed for sire (-maternal grandsire) models was much smaller than for animal models with only small differences in accuracy. The sire (-maternal grandsire) model was robust when additional genetic components were estimated, while the equivalent animal model had difficulties reaching convergence.ConclusionsFor the evaluation of calving traits, multi-trait models show a slight advantage over univariate models. Extended sire models (-maternal grandsire) are more practical and robust than animal models. Estimated genetic parameters for calving traits of UK Holstein cattle are consistent with literature. Calculating an aggregate estimated breeding value including direct and maternal values should encourage breeders to consider both direct and maternal effects in selection decisions.

Dataset Information

Qualitative release assessment to estimate the likelihood of henipavirus entering the United Kingdom.

Publications

Qualitative release assessment to estimate the likelihood of henipavirus entering the United Kingdom.

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