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Inference for discretely observed stochastic kinetic networks with applications to epidemic modeling.


ABSTRACT: We present a new method for Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo-based inference in certain types of stochastic models, suitable for modeling noisy epidemic data. We apply the so-called uniformization representation of a Markov process, in order to efficiently generate appropriate conditional distributions in the Gibbs sampler algorithm. The approach is shown to work well in various data-poor settings, that is, when only partial information about the epidemic process is available, as illustrated on the synthetic data from SIR-type epidemics and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention data from the onset of the H1N1 pandemic in the United States.

SUBMITTER: Choi B 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3276272 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Inference for discretely observed stochastic kinetic networks with applications to epidemic modeling.

Choi Boseung B   Rempala Grzegorz A GA  

Biostatistics (Oxford, England) 20110810 1


We present a new method for Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo-based inference in certain types of stochastic models, suitable for modeling noisy epidemic data. We apply the so-called uniformization representation of a Markov process, in order to efficiently generate appropriate conditional distributions in the Gibbs sampler algorithm. The approach is shown to work well in various data-poor settings, that is, when only partial information about the epidemic process is available, as illustrated on  ...[more]

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