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Predicting costs among medicare beneficiaries with heart failure.

ABSTRACT: Disease management programs that target patients with the highest risk of subsequent costs may help payers and providers control health care costs, but identifying these patients prospectively is challenging. We hypothesized that medical history and clinical data from a heart failure registry could be used to prospectively identify patients with heart failure most likely to incur high costs. We linked Medicare inpatient claims to clinical registry data for patients with heart failure and calculated total Medicare costs during the year after the index heart failure hospitalization. We defined patients as having high costs if they were in the upper 5% (>$76,500) of the distribution. We used logistic regression models to identify patient and clinical characteristics associated with high costs. Costs for 40,317 patients in the study varied widely. Patients in the upper 5% of the cost distribution incurred mean costs of $117,193 ± 55,550 during 1 year of follow-up compared to $17,086 ± 17,792 for the lower-cost group. Demographic and clinical characteristics associated with high costs included younger age and black race; history of anemia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, ischemic heart disease, diabetes mellitus, or peripheral vascular disease; serum creatinine level; and systolic blood pressure at admission. Mean 1-year Medicare costs for patients whom the model predicted would exceed the high-cost threshold were >2 times the costs for patients below the threshold. In conclusion, a model based on variables from clinical registries can identify a group of patients with heart failure who on average will incur higher costs in the first year after hospitalization.

SUBMITTER: Greiner MA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3288564 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting costs among medicare beneficiaries with heart failure.

Greiner Melissa A MA Hammill Bradley G BG Fonarow Gregg C GC Whellan David J DJ Eapen Zubin J ZJ Hernandez Adrian F AF Curtis Lesley H LH

The American journal of cardiology 20111210 5

Disease management programs that target patients with the highest risk of subsequent costs may help payers and providers control health care costs, but identifying these patients prospectively is challenging. We hypothesized that medical history and clinical data from a heart failure registry could be used to prospectively identify patients with heart failure most likely to incur high costs. We linked Medicare inpatient claims to clinical registry data for patients with heart failure and calcula ...[more]

PMID: 22154317

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Project description:OBJECTIVES:The purpose of this study was to examine the association of 30-day payments for an episode of heart failure (HF) care at the hospital level with patient outcomes. BACKGROUND:There is increased focus among policymakers on improving value for HF care, given its rising prevalence and associated financial burden in the United States; however, little is known about the relationship between payments and mortality for a 30-day episode of HF care. METHODS:Using Medicare claims data for all fee-for-service beneficiaries hospitalized for HF between July 1, 2011, and June 30, 2014, we examined the association between 30-day Medicare payments at the hospital level (beginning with a hospital admission for HF and across multiple settings following discharge) and patient 30-day mortality using mixed-effect logistic regression models. RESULTS:We included 1,343,792 patients hospitalized for HF across 2,948 hospitals. Mean hospital-level 30-day Medicare payments per beneficiary were $15,423 ± $1,523. Overall observed mortality in the cohort was 11.3%. Higher hospital-level 30-day payments were associated with lower patient mortality after adjustment for patient characteristics (odds ratio per $1,000 increase in payments: 0.961; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.954 to 0.967). This relationship was slightly attenuated after accounting for hospital characteristics and HF volume, but remained significant (odds ratio per $1,000 increase: 0.968; 95% CI: 0.962 to 0.975). Additional adjustment for potential mediating factors, including cardiac service capability and post-acute service use, did not significantly affect the relationship. CONCLUSIONS:Higher hospital-level 30-day episode payments were associated with lower patient mortality following a hospitalization for HF. This has implications for policies that incentivize reduction in payments without considering value. Further investigation is needed to understand the mechanisms that underlie this relationship.

Project description:ImportanceDespite advances in treatment and care quality for patients hospitalized with heart failure (HF), minimal improvement in mortality has been observed after HF hospitalization since 2010.ObjectiveTo evaluate trends in mortality rates across specific intervals after hospitalization.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study evaluated a random sample of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries with incident HF hospitalization from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2018. Data were analyzed from February 2023 to May 2024.Main outcomes and measuresUnadjusted mortality rates were calculated by dividing the number of all-cause deaths by the number of patients with incident HF hospitalization for the following periods: in-hospital, 30 days (0-30 days after hospital discharge), short term (31 days to 1 year after discharge), intermediate term (1-2 years after discharge), and long term (2-3 years after discharge). Each period was considered separately (ie, patients who died during one period were not counted in subsequent periods). Annual unadjusted and risk-adjusted mortality ratios were calculated (using logistic regression to account for differences in patient characteristics), defined as observed mortality divided by expected mortality based on 2008 rates.ResultsA total of 1 256 041 patients (mean [SD] age, 83.0 [7.6] years; 56.0% female; 86.0% White) were hospitalized with incident HF. There was a substantial decrease in the mortality ratio for the in-hospital period (unadjusted ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.67-0.77; risk-adjusted ratio, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.71-0.76). For subsequent periods, mortality ratios increased through 2013 and then decreased through 2018, resulting in no reductions in unadjusted postdischarge mortality during the full study period (30-day mortality ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.82-1.06; short-term mortality ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.87-1.17; intermediate-term mortality ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.79-1.19; and long-term mortality ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.76-1.16) and small reductions in risk-adjusted postdischarge mortality during the full study period (30-day mortality ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.86-0.90; short-term mortality ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.94-0.95; intermediate-term mortality ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.92-0.95; and long-term mortality ratio, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.93-0.96).Conclusions and relevanceIn this study of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries, there was a substantial decrease in in-hospital mortality for patients hospitalized with incident HF from 2008 to 2018, but little to no reduction in mortality for subsequent periods up to 3 years after hospitalization. These results suggest opportunities to improve longitudinal outpatient care for patients with HF after hospital discharge.

Project description:Diabetes mellitus, heart failure (HF), and chronic kidney disease are common comorbidities, but overall use and safety of antihyperglycemic medications (AHMs) among patients with these comorbidities are poorly understood.Using Get With the Guidelines-Heart Failure and linked Medicare Part D data, we assessed AHM use within 90 days of hospital discharge among HF patients with diabetes mellitus discharged from Get With the Guidelines-Heart Failure hospitals between January 1, 2006, and October 1, 2011. We further summarized use by renal function and assessed renal contraindicated AHM use for patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate <30 mL/min/1.73m(2). Among 8791 patients meeting inclusion criteria, the median age was 77 (interquartile range 71-83), 62.3% were female, median body mass index was 29.7 (interquartile range 25.5-35.3), median hemoglobin A1c was 6.8 (interquartile range 6.2-7.8), and 34% had ejection fraction <40%. 74.9% of patients filled a prescription for an AHM, with insulin (39.5%), sulfonylureas (32.4%), and metformin (17%) being the most commonly used AHMs. Insulin use was higher and sulfonylurea/metformin use was lower among patients with lower renal function classes. Among 1512 patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate <30 mL/min/1.73m(2), 35.4% filled prescriptions for renal contraindicated AHMs per prescribing information, though there was a trend toward lower renal contraindicated AHM use over time (Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel row-mean score test P=0.048). Although use of other AHMs was low overall, thiazolidinediones were used in 6.6% of HF patients, and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors were used in 5.1%, with trends for decreasing thiazolidinedione use and increased dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor use over time (P<0.001).Treatment of diabetes mellitus in patients with HF and chronic kidney disease is complex, and these patients are commonly treated with renal contraindicated AHMs, including over 6% receiving a thiazolidinedione, despite known concerns regarding HF. More research regarding safety and efficacy of various AHMs among HF patients is needed.

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Predicting costs among medicare beneficiaries with heart failure.

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Predicting costs among medicare beneficiaries with heart failure.

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