Dataset Information

Incorporating Uncertainty Into the Ranking of SPARROW Model Nutrient Yields From Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Watersheds.

ABSTRACT: Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical/mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying "high priority" areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient-reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight-digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs.

SUBMITTER: Robertson DM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3307625 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Incorporating Uncertainty Into the Ranking of SPARROW Model Nutrient Yields From Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Watersheds.

Robertson Dale M DM Schwarz Gregory E GE Saad David A DA Alexander Richard B RB

Journal of the American Water Resources Association 20090401 2

Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management deci ...[more]

PMID: 22457567

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Project description:The Yazoo Darter, Etheostoma raneyi (Percidae), is an imperiled freshwater fish species endemic to tributaries of the Yocona and Little Tallahatchie rivers of the upper Yazoo River basin, in northern Mississippi, USA. The two populations are allopatric, isolated by unsuitable lowland habitat between the two river drainages. Relevant literature suggests that populations in the Yocona River represent an undescribed species, but a lack of data prevents a thorough evaluation of possible diversity throughout the range of the species. Our goals were to estimate phylogenetic relationships of the Yazoo Darter across its distribution and identify cryptic diversity for conservation management purposes. Maximum likelihood (ML) phylogenetic analyses of the mitochondrial cytochrome b (cytb) gene returned two reciprocally monophyletic clades representing the two river drainages with high support. Bayesian analysis of cytb was consistent with the ML analysis but with low support for the Yocona River clade. Analyses of the nuclear S7 gene yielded unresolved relationships among individuals in the Little Tallahatchie River drainage with mostly low support, but returned a monophyletic clade for individuals from the Yocona River drainage with high support. No haplotypes were shared between the drainages for either gene. Additional cryptic diversity within the two drainages was not indicated. Estimated divergence between Yazoo Darters in the two drainages occurred during the Pleistocene (<1 million years ago) and was likely linked to repeated spatial shifts in suitable habitat and changes in watershed configurations during glacial cycles. Individuals from the Yocona River drainage had lower genetic diversity consistent with the literature. Our results indicate that Yazoo Darters in the Yocona River drainage are genetically distinct and that there is support for recognizing Yazoo Darter populations in the Yocona River drainage as a new species under the unified species concept.

Dataset Information

Incorporating Uncertainty Into the Ranking of SPARROW Model Nutrient Yields From Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Watersheds.

Publications

Incorporating Uncertainty Into the Ranking of SPARROW Model Nutrient Yields From Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Watersheds.

Similar Datasets

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