The 1918-19 influenza pandemic in Boyaca, Colombia.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Chowell G
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3310082 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Current estimates of deaths from the influenza pandemic of 1918-19 in Japan are based on vital records and range from 257,000 to 481,000. The resulting crude death rate range of 0.47%-0.88% is considerably lower than parallel and conservative worldwide estimates of 1.66%-2.77%. Because the accuracy of vital registration records for early 20th century Asia is questionable, to calculate the percentage of the population who died from the pandemic, we used alternative prefecture-level population count data for Japan in combination with estimation methods for panel data that were not available to earlier demographers. Our population loss estimates of 1.97-2.02 million are appreciably higher than the standing estimates, and they yield a crude rate of population loss of 3.62%-3.71%. This rate resolves a major puzzle about the pandemic by indicating that the experience of Japan was similar to that of other parts of Asia.
| S-EPMC3647405 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND: The 1918-19 'Spanish' Influenza was the most devastating pandemic in recent history, with estimates of global mortality ranging from 20 to 50 million. The focal point of the pandemic was India, with an estimated death toll of between 10 and 20 million. We will characterize the pattern of spread, mortality, and evolution of the 1918 influenza across India using spatial or temporal data. METHODS: This study estimates weekly deaths in 213 districts from nine provinces in India. We compute statistical measures of the severity, speed, and duration of the virulent autumn wave of the disease as it evolved and diffused throughout India. These estimates create a clear picture of the spread of the pandemic across India. RESULTS: Analysis of the timing and mortality patterns of the disease reveals a striking pattern of speed deceleration, reduction in peak-week mortality, a prolonging of the epidemic wave, and a decrease in overall virulence of the pandemic over time. CONCLUSIONS: The findings are consistent with a variety of possible causes, including the changing nature of the dominant viral strain and the timing and severity of the monsoon. The results significantly advance our knowledge of this devastating pandemic at its global focal point.
| S-EPMC4262128 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The 1918 influenza pandemic killed 20-40 million people worldwide, and is seen as a worst-case scenario for pandemic planning. Like other pandemic influenza strains, the 1918 A/H1N1 strain spread extremely rapidly. A measure of transmissibility and of the stringency of control measures required to stop an epidemic is the reproductive number, which is the number of secondary cases produced by each primary case. Here we obtained an estimate of the reproductive number for 1918 influenza by fitting a deterministic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model to pneumonia and influenza death epidemic curves from 45 US cities: the median value is less than three. The estimated proportion of the population with A/H1N1 immunity before September 1918 implies a median basic reproductive number of less than four. These results strongly suggest that the reproductive number for 1918 pandemic influenza is not large relative to many other infectious diseases. In theory, a similar novel influenza subtype could be controlled. But because influenza is frequently transmitted before a specific diagnosis is possible and there is a dearth of global antiviral and vaccine stores, aggressive transmission reducing measures will probably be required.
| S-EPMC7095078 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most significant pandemic recorded in human history. Worldwide, an estimated half billion persons were infected and 20 to 100 million people died in three waves during 1918 to 1919. Yet the impact of this pandemic has been poorly documented in many countries especially those in Africa. We used colonial-era records to describe the impact of 1918 influenza pandemic in the Coast Province of Kenya. We gathered quantitative data on facility use and all-cause mortality from 1912 to 1925, and pandemic-specific data from active reporting from September 1918 to March 1919. We also extracted quotes from correspondence to complement the quantitative data and describe the societal impact of the pandemic. We found that crude mortality rates and healthcare utilization increased six- and three-fold, respectively, in 1918, and estimated a pandemic mortality rate of 25.3 deaths/1000 people/year. Impact to society and the health care system was dramatic as evidenced by correspondence. In conclusion, the 1918 pandemic profoundly affected Coastal Kenya. Preparation for the next pandemic requires continued improvement in surveillance, education about influenza vaccines, and efforts to prevent, detect and respond to novel influenza outbreaks.
| S-EPMC6631354 | biostudies-other
Project description:The 1918 influenza A virus caused the most devastating pandemic, killing approximately 50 million people worldwide. Immunization with 1918-like and classical swine H1N1 virus vaccines results in cross-protective antibodies against the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza, indicating antigenic similarities among these viruses. In this study, we demonstrate that vaccination with the 2009 pandemic H1N1 vaccine elicits 1918 virus cross-protective antibodies in mice and humans, and that vaccination or passive transfer of human-positive sera reduced morbidity and conferred full protection from lethal challenge with the 1918 virus in mice. The spread of the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus in the population worldwide, in addition to the large number of individuals already vaccinated, suggests that a large proportion of the population now have cross-protective antibodies against the 1918 virus, greatly alleviating concerns and fears regarding the accidental exposure/release of the 1918 virus from the laboratory and the use of the virus as a bioterrorist agent.
| S-EPMC2964451 | biostudies-other
Project description:BACKGROUND:Increasing our knowledge of past influenza pandemic patterns in different regions of the world is crucial to guide preparedness plans against future influenza pandemics. Here, we undertook extensive archival collection efforts from three representative cities of Peru-Lima in the central coast, Iquitos in the northeastern Amazon region, Ica in the southern coast-to characterize the temporal, age and geographic patterns of the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in this country. MATERIALS AND METHODS:We analyzed historical documents describing the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Peru and retrieved individual mortality records from local provincial archives for quantitative analysis. We applied seasonal excess mortality models to daily and monthly respiratory mortality rates for 1917-1920 and quantified transmissibility estimates based on the daily growth rate in respiratory deaths. RESULTS:A total of 52,739 individual mortality records were inspected from local provincial archives. We found evidence for an initial mild pandemic wave during July-September 1918 in Lima, identified a synchronized severe pandemic wave of respiratory mortality in all three locations during November 1918-February 1919, and a severe pandemic wave during January 1920-March 1920 in Lima and July-October 1920 in Ica. There was no recrudescent pandemic wave in 1920 in Iquitos. Remarkably, Lima experienced the brunt of the 1918-1920 excess mortality impact during the 1920 recrudescent wave, with all age groups experiencing an increase in all cause excess mortality from 1918-1919 to 1920. Middle age groups experienced the highest excess mortality impact, relative to baseline levels, in the 1918-1919 and 1920 pandemic waves. Cumulative excess mortality rates for the 1918-1920 pandemic period were higher in Iquitos (2.9%) than Lima (1.6%). The mean reproduction number for Lima was estimated in the range 1.3-1.5. CONCLUSIONS:We identified synchronized pandemic waves of intense excess respiratory mortality during November 1918-February 1919 in Lima, Iquitos, Ica, followed by asynchronous recrudescent waves in 1920. Cumulative data from quantitative studies of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Latin American settings have confirmed the high mortality impact associated with this pandemic. Further historical studies in lesser studied regions of Latin America, Africa, and Asia are warranted for a full understanding of the global impact of the 1918 pandemic virus.
| S-EPMC3144394 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The influenza virus was instrumental in unravelling critical aspects of the antiviral T lymphocyte mediated immune response. A major finding was the demonstration that CD8 T lymphocytes recognize short viral peptides presented by class I molecules of the major histocompatibility complex. Studies of influenza specific T cells have also led to an understanding of their important role in recovery from influenza virus infection in humans.
| S-EPMC6197988 | biostudies-other
Project description:2018 marks the 100-year anniversary of the 1918 influenza pandemic, which killed ~50 million people worldwide. The severity of this pandemic resulted from a complex interplay between viral, host, and societal factors. Here, we review the viral, genetic and immune factors that contributed to the severity of the 1918 pandemic and discuss the implications for modern pandemic preparedness. We address unresolved questions of why the 1918 influenza H1N1 virus was more virulent than other influenza pandemics and why some people survived the 1918 pandemic and others succumbed to the infection. While current studies suggest that viral factors such as haemagglutinin and polymerase gene segments most likely contributed to a potent, dysregulated pro-inflammatory cytokine storm in victims of the pandemic, a shift in case-fatality for the 1918 pandemic toward young adults was most likely associated with the host's immune status. Lack of pre-existing virus-specific and/or cross-reactive antibodies and cellular immunity in children and young adults likely contributed to the high attack rate and rapid spread of the 1918 H1N1 virus. In contrast, lower mortality rate in in the older (>30 years) adult population points toward the beneficial effects of pre-existing cross-reactive immunity. In addition to the role of humoral and cellular immunity, there is a growing body of evidence to suggest that individual genetic differences, especially involving single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), contribute to differences in the severity of influenza virus infections. Co-infections with bacterial pathogens, and possibly measles and malaria, co-morbidities, malnutrition or obesity are also known to affect the severity of influenza disease, and likely influenced 1918 H1N1 disease severity and outcomes. Additionally, we also discuss the new challenges, such as changing population demographics, antibiotic resistance and climate change, which we will face in the context of any future influenza virus pandemic. In the last decade there has been a dramatic increase in the number of severe influenza virus strains entering the human population from animal reservoirs (including highly pathogenic H7N9 and H5N1 viruses). An understanding of past influenza virus pandemics and the lessons that we have learnt from them has therefore never been more pertinent.
| S-EPMC6187080 | biostudies-other
Project description:BACKGROUND: Time variations in transmission potential have rarely been examined with regard to pandemic influenza. This paper reanalyzes the temporal distribution of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918-19 using the daily numbers of deaths, which totaled 8911 from 29 September 1918 to 1 February 1919, and the distribution of the time delay from onset to death in order to estimate the effective reproduction number, Rt, defined as the actual average number of secondary cases per primary case at a given time. RESULTS: A discrete-time branching process was applied to back-calculated incidence data, assuming three different serial intervals (i.e. 1, 3 and 5 days). The estimated reproduction numbers exhibited a clear association between the estimates and choice of serial interval; i.e. the longer the assumed serial interval, the higher the reproduction number. Moreover, the estimated reproduction numbers did not decline monotonically with time, indicating that the patterns of secondary transmission varied with time. These tendencies are consistent with the differences in estimates of the reproduction number of pandemic influenza in recent studies; high estimates probably originate from a long serial interval and a model assumption about transmission rate that takes no account of time variation and is applied to the entire epidemic curve. CONCLUSION: The present findings suggest that in order to offer robust assessments it is critically important to clarify in detail the natural history of a disease (e.g. including the serial interval) as well as heterogeneous patterns of transmission. In addition, given that human contact behavior probably influences transmissibility, individual countermeasures (e.g. household quarantine and mask-wearing) need to be explored to construct effective non-pharmaceutical interventions.
| S-EPMC1892008 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Analysis of historical data has strongly shaped our understanding of the epidemiology of pandemic influenza and informs analysis of current and future epidemics. Here, the authors analyzed previously unpublished documents from a large household survey of the "Spanish" H1N1 influenza pandemic, conducted in 1918, for the first time quantifying influenza transmissibility at the person-to-person level during that most lethal of pandemics. The authors estimated a low probability of person-to-person transmission relative to comparable estimates from seasonal influenza and other directly transmitted infections but similar to recent estimates from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. The authors estimated a very low probability of asymptomatic infection, a previously unknown parameter for this pandemic, consistent with an unusually virulent virus. The authors estimated a high frequency of prior immunity that they attributed to a largely unreported influenza epidemic in the spring of 1918 (or perhaps to cross-reactive immunity). Extrapolating from this finding, the authors hypothesize that prior immunity partially protected some populations from the worst of the fall pandemic and helps explain differences in attack rates between populations. Together, these analyses demonstrate that the 1918 influenza virus, though highly virulent, was only moderately transmissible and thus in a modern context would be considered controllable.
| S-EPMC3695637 | biostudies-literature