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The impact of weather on influenza and pneumonia mortality in New York City, 1975-2002: a retrospective study.

ABSTRACT: The substantial winter influenza peak in temperate climates has lead to the hypothesis that cold and/or dry air is a causal factor in influenza variability. We examined the relationship between cold and/or dry air and daily influenza and pneumonia mortality in the cold season in the New York metropolitan area from 1975-2002. We conducted a retrospective study relating daily pneumonia and influenza mortality for New York City and surroundings from 1975-2002 to daily air temperature, dew point temperature (a measure of atmospheric humidity), and daily air mass type. We identified high mortality days and periods and employed temporal smoothers and lags to account for the latency period and the time between infection and death. Unpaired t-tests were used to compare high mortality events to non-events and nonparametric bootstrapped regression analysis was used to examine the characteristics of longer mortality episodes. We found a statistically significant (p?=?0.003) association between periods of low dew point temperature and above normal pneumonia and influenza mortality 17 days later. The duration (r?=?-0.61) and severity (r?=?-0.56) of high mortality episodes was inversely correlated with morning dew point temperature prior to and during the episodes. Weeks in which moist polar air masses were common (air masses characterized by low dew point temperatures) were likewise followed by above normal mortality 17 days later (p?=?0.019). This research supports the contention that cold, dry air may be related to influenza mortality and suggests that warning systems could provide enough lead time to be effective in mitigating the effects.

SUBMITTER: Davis RE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3314701 | biostudies-literature | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The impact of weather on influenza and pneumonia mortality in New York City, 1975-2002: a retrospective study.

Davis Robert E RE Rossier Colleen E CE Enfield Kyle B KB

PloS one 20120328 3

The substantial winter influenza peak in temperate climates has lead to the hypothesis that cold and/or dry air is a causal factor in influenza variability. We examined the relationship between cold and/or dry air and daily influenza and pneumonia mortality in the cold season in the New York metropolitan area from 1975-2002. We conducted a retrospective study relating daily pneumonia and influenza mortality for New York City and surroundings from 1975-2002 to daily air temperature, dew point tem ...[more]

PMID: 22470518

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Project description:OBJECTIVES:To determine whether asthma hospitalisations of children and adults in the five boroughs of New York City are correlated with influenza hospitalisations temporally and spatially. DESIGN:A longitudinal ecological study. INCLUSION CRITERIA:We reviewed the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System's records of hospitalisations in Manhattan, Bronx, Queens, Brooklyn and Staten Island from 2002 to 2012. All hospitalisations with a primary diagnosis of either asthma or influenza were identified using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis codes. METHODS:A time-series regression analysis was performed using aggregate monthly counts of influenza hospitalisations as predictors of asthma hospitalisations. Time-series regression models were also applied to different age groups and boroughs to examine the magnitude of influenza and asthma correlations across strata. The per cent excess risk was also calculated across age groups and boroughs. RESULTS:Time-series analysis of the overall population revealed a significant positive correlation between influenza and asthma hospitalisations (p=0.011). When stratifying by age, there was a significant positive correlation between asthma and influenza hospitalisations for individuals 18 and older (p<0.01), and no significant correlation found for age groups younger than 18. Percentages of excess risk of influenza-related asthma hospitalisations also increased with increasing age with adults 18-44, 45-64 and 65+ having?excess risk percentages of 2.9%, 3.4% and 4%, respectively. Time-series analysis by location revealed positive significant correlations between asthma and influenza hospitalisations in Brooklyn (p=0.03) and Manhattan (p<0.01). Manhattan and Brooklyn had a 2.5% and 1.6%, respectively, percentage of excess risk of influenza-related asthma hospitalisations. CONCLUSION:Influenza and asthma hospitalisations are significantly associated at the population level among adults. These associations vary by age and geographical location. Influenza prevention strategies targeting adult populations, particularly individuals living in Manhattan and Brooklyn, have the potential for meaningful reduction of influenza-related asthma hospitalisations.

Project description:BackgroundThe importance of understanding age when estimating the impact of influenza on hospitalizations and deaths has been well described, yet existing surveillance systems have not made adequate use of age-specific data. Monitoring influenza-related morbidity using electronic health data may provide timely and detailed insight into the age-specific course, impact and epidemiology of seasonal drift and reassortment epidemic viruses. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the use of emergency department (ED) chief complaint data for measuring influenza-attributable morbidity by age and by predominant circulating virus.Methods and findingsWe analyzed electronically reported ED fever and respiratory chief complaint and viral surveillance data in New York City (NYC) during the 2001-2002 through 2005-2006 influenza seasons, and inferred dominant circulating viruses from national surveillance reports. We estimated influenza-attributable impact as observed visits in excess of a model-predicted baseline during influenza periods, and epidemic timing by threshold and cross correlation. We found excess fever and respiratory ED visits occurred predominantly among school-aged children (8.5 excess ED visits per 1,000 children aged 5-17 y) with little or no impact on adults during the early-2002 B/Victoria-lineage epidemic; increased fever and respiratory ED visits among children younger than 5 y during respiratory syncytial virus-predominant periods preceding epidemic influenza; and excess ED visits across all ages during the 2003-2004 (9.2 excess visits per 1,000 population) and 2004-2005 (5.2 excess visits per 1,000 population) A/H3N2 Fujian-lineage epidemics, with the relative impact shifted within and between seasons from younger to older ages. During each influenza epidemic period in the study, ED visits were increased among school-aged children, and each epidemic peaked among school-aged children before other impacted age groups.ConclusionsInfluenza-related morbidity in NYC was highly age- and strain-specific. The impact of reemerging B/Victoria-lineage influenza was focused primarily on school-aged children born since the virus was last widespread in the US, while epidemic A/Fujian-lineage influenza affected all age groups, consistent with a novel antigenic variant. The correspondence between predominant circulating viruses and excess ED visits, hospitalizations, and deaths shows that excess fever and respiratory ED visits provide a reliable surrogate measure of incident influenza-attributable morbidity. The highly age-specific impact of influenza by subtype and strain suggests that greater age detail be incorporated into ongoing surveillance. Influenza morbidity surveillance using electronic data currently available in many jurisdictions can provide timely and representative information about the age-specific epidemiology of circulating influenza viruses.

Dataset Information

The impact of weather on influenza and pneumonia mortality in New York City, 1975-2002: a retrospective study.

Publications

The impact of weather on influenza and pneumonia mortality in New York City, 1975-2002: a retrospective study.

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