Dataset Information

Evolutionary game theory and social learning can determine how vaccine scares unfold.

ABSTRACT: Immunization programs have often been impeded by vaccine scares, as evidenced by the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) autism vaccine scare in Britain. A "free rider" effect may be partly responsible: vaccine-generated herd immunity can reduce disease incidence to such low levels that real or imagined vaccine risks appear large in comparison, causing individuals to cease vaccinating. This implies a feedback loop between disease prevalence and strategic individual vaccinating behavior. Here, we analyze a model based on evolutionary game theory that captures this feedback in the context of vaccine scares, and that also includes social learning. Vaccine risk perception evolves over time according to an exogenously imposed curve. We test the model against vaccine coverage data and disease incidence data from two vaccine scares in England & Wales: the whole cell pertussis vaccine scare and the MMR vaccine scare. The model fits vaccine coverage data from both vaccine scares relatively well. Moreover, the model can explain the vaccine coverage data more parsimoniously than most competing models without social learning and/or feedback (hence, adding social learning and feedback to a vaccine scare model improves model fit with little or no parsimony penalty). Under some circumstances, the model can predict future vaccine coverage and disease incidence--up to 10 years in advance in the case of pertussis--including specific qualitative features of the dynamics, such as future incidence peaks and undulations in vaccine coverage due to the population's response to changing disease incidence. Vaccine scares could become more common as eradication goals are approached for more vaccine-preventable diseases. Such models could help us predict how vaccine scares might unfold and assist mitigation efforts.

SUBMITTER: Bauch CT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3320575 | biostudies-literature | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Evolutionary game theory and social learning can determine how vaccine scares unfold.

Bauch Chris T CT Bhattacharyya Samit S

PLoS computational biology 20120405 4

Immunization programs have often been impeded by vaccine scares, as evidenced by the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) autism vaccine scare in Britain. A "free rider" effect may be partly responsible: vaccine-generated herd immunity can reduce disease incidence to such low levels that real or imagined vaccine risks appear large in comparison, causing individuals to cease vaccinating. This implies a feedback loop between disease prevalence and strategic individual vaccinating behavior. Here, we analyze ...[more]

PMID: 22496631

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundWhile most game theoretical models assume that individuals randomly interact with all other group members, strong evidence indicates that individuals tend to preferentially interact with some of them. The position of an individual in a network affects, among other factors related to survival, its predation risk and competitive success. Here I then modified the Hawk-Dove game to explore the effect of social network structure on competitive strategy of individuals that differ in their fighting ability and may adjust their use of the Hawk, Dove and Assessor tactics to maximize their foraging success when they meet opponents they are connected with.ResultsFrom randomly generated networks, I demonstrate that phenotypic assortment by fighting ability reduces individuals' aggressiveness and, as such, favours cooperative interactions. Furthermore, the success of individuals with the weakest fighting ability is usually highest within networks where they most frequently meet opponents with the same fighting ability as their own, suggesting they might benefit from breaking connections with strong contestants. This might be the case when strong contestants systematically rely on the aggressive Hawk tactic or the risk of being predated is low and independent of the number of neighbours. Thus, I extended the model and built a dynamic model to allow individuals not only to adjust their behaviour to local conditions but also to modify the structure of the social network. The number of connections and degree of phenotypic assortment are then affected by ecological factors (e.g. resources value and predation risk), but above all by whether individuals can reliably assess the competitive ability of their opponents and adjust their behaviour accordingly.ConclusionsThese findings provide strong evidence that behaviour can play a key role in shaping network structure and highlight the importance of considering the coevolution of network and behaviour to apprehend its consequences on population dynamics.

Dataset Information

Evolutionary game theory and social learning can determine how vaccine scares unfold.

Publications

Evolutionary game theory and social learning can determine how vaccine scares unfold.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets