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Comparison of the Framingham and Reynolds Risk scores for global cardiovascular risk prediction in the multiethnic Women's Health Initiative.

ABSTRACT: Framingham-based and Reynolds Risk scores for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction have not been directly compared in an independent validation cohort.We selected a case-cohort sample of the multiethnic Women's Health Initiative Observational Cohort, comprising 1722 cases of major CVD (752 myocardial infarctions, 754 ischemic strokes, and 216 other CVD deaths) and a random subcohort of 1994 women without prior CVD. We estimated risk using the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III) score, the Reynolds Risk Score, and the Framingham CVD model, reweighting to reflect cohort frequencies. Predicted 10-year risk varied widely between models, with ?10% risk in 6%, 10%, and 41% of women with the ATP-III, Reynolds, and Framingham CVD models, respectively. Calibration was adequate for the Reynolds model, but the ATP-III and Framingham CVD models overestimated risk for coronary heart disease and major CVD, respectively. After recalibration, the Reynolds model demonstrated improved discrimination over the ATP-III model through a higher c statistic (0.765 versus 0.757; P=0.03), positive net reclassification improvement (NRI; 4.9%; P=0.02), and positive integrated discrimination improvement (4.1%; P<0.0001) overall, excluding diabetics (NRI=4.2%; P=0.01), and in white (NRI=4.3%; P=0.04) and black (NRI=11.4%; P=0.13) women. The Reynolds (NRI=12.9%; P<0.0001) and ATP-III (NRI=5.9%; P=0.0001) models demonstrated better discrimination than the Framingham CVD model.The Reynolds Risk Score was better calibrated than the Framingham-based models in this large external validation cohort. The Reynolds score also showed improved discrimination overall and in black and white women. Large differences in risk estimates exist between models, with clinical implications for statin therapy.

SUBMITTER: Cook NR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3324658 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Comparison of the Framingham and Reynolds Risk scores for global cardiovascular risk prediction in the multiethnic Women's Health Initiative.

Cook Nancy R NR Paynter Nina P NP Eaton Charles B CB Manson JoAnn E JE Martin Lisa W LW Robinson Jennifer G JG Rossouw Jacques E JE Wassertheil-Smoller Sylvia S Ridker Paul M PM

Circulation 20120307 14

<h4>Background</h4>Framingham-based and Reynolds Risk scores for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction have not been directly compared in an independent validation cohort.<h4>Methods and results</h4>We selected a case-cohort sample of the multiethnic Women's Health Initiative Observational Cohort, comprising 1722 cases of major CVD (752 myocardial infarctions, 754 ischemic strokes, and 216 other CVD deaths) and a random subcohort of 1994 women without prior CVD. We estimated risk using the Adu ...[more]

PMID: 22399535

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Project description:Importance:Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) kills approximately 1 in every 3 US women. Current cholesterol, hypertension, and aspirin guidelines recommend calculating 10-year risk of ASCVD using the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE). However, numerous studies have reported apparent overestimation of risk with the PCE, and reasons for overestimation are unclear. Objective:We evaluated the predictive accuracy of the PCE in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI), a multiethnic cohort of contemporary US postmenopausal women. We evaluated the effects of time-varying treatments such as aspirin and statins, and ascertainment of additional ASCVD events by linkage with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) claims. Design, Setting, and Participants:The WHI recruited the largest number of US women (n?=?161?808) with the racial/ethnic, geographic, and age diversity of the general population (1993-1998). For this study, we included women aged 50 to 79 (n?=?19?995) participating in the WHI with data on the risk equation variables at baseline and who met the guideline inclusion and exclusion criteria. Median follow-up was 10 years. Main Outcomes and Measures:For this study, ASCVD was defined as myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death. Results:Among the 19?995 women (mean [SD] age, 64 [7.3] years; 8305 [41.5%] white, 7688 [38.5%] black, 3491 [17.5%] Hispanic, 103 [0.5%] American Indian, 321 [1.6%] Asian/Pacific Islander, and 87 [0.4%] other/unknown), a total of 1236 ASCVD events occurred in 10 years and were adjudicated through medical record review by WHI investigators. The WHI-adjudicated observed risks were lower than predicted. The observed (predicted) risks for baseline 10-year risk categories less than 5%, 5% to less than 7.5%, 7.5% to less than 10%, and 10% or more were 1.7 (2.8), 4.4 (6.2), 5.3 (8.7), and 12.4 (18.2), respectively. Small changes were noted after adjusting for time-dependent changes in statin and aspirin use. Among women 65 years or older enrolled in Medicare, WHI-adjudicated risks were also lower than predicted, but observed (predicted) risks became aligned after including events ascertained by linkage with CMS for additional surveillance for events: 3.8 (4.3), 7.1 (6.4), 8.3 (8.7), and 18.9 (18.7), respectively. Similar results were seen across ethnic/racial groups. Overall, the equations discriminated risk well (C statistic, 0.726; 95% CI, 0.714-0.738). Conclusions and Relevance:Without including surveillance for ASCVD events using CMS, observed risks in the WHI were lower than predicted by PCE as noted in several other US cohorts, but risks were better aligned after including CMS events. Trial Registration:ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00000611.

Project description:UNLABELLED:To examine the association between renal function and fracture in multiethnic women, we studied postmenopausal women enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative. Postmenopausal White women with mild renal dysfunction were at increased risk of nonvertebral fracture; this association was at least partially explained by effects of renal dysfunction on chronic inflammation. Reduced renal function appeared to increase fracture risk among Black women, but there was little evidence to support this association among other racial/ethnic groups. INTRODUCTION:The purpose of this study was to determine whether renal function is associated with fracture risk within racial/ethnic groups. METHODS:A nested case-control study was conducted among 93,673 postmenopausal women; incident nonvertebral fractures were identified in 362 Black, 183 Hispanic, 110 Asian, and 45 American-Indian women. A random sample of 395 White women with incident nonvertebral fracture was chosen. One nonfracture control for each case was selected (matched on age, race/ethnicity, and blood draw date). Cystatin C levels were measured using baseline serum, and estimated glomerular filtration rate calculated (eGFR(cys-c)). RESULTS:Each 1 SD increase in cystatin C was associated with a 1.2-fold increased risk of fracture among White women (adjusted odds ratios [OR], 1.23; 95% confidence intervals [CI], 1.04-1.46). The OR of fracture was 1.16 (95% CI, 0.85-1.58) among women with eGFR(cys-c) 60-90 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and 2.46 (95% CI, 1.16-5.21) among those with eGFR(cys-c) <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) compared to the reference group (eGFR(cys-c) >90 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) (p trend = 0.05). The association was reduced after adjustment for cytokine TNF? soluble receptors (OR, 1.62; 95% CI, 0.59-4.46 for eGFR(cys-c) <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)). Among Blacks, there was an association between cystatin C and fracture risk (OR per 1 SD increase, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.00-1.32); after adjustment, this association was only modestly attenuated, but no longer statistically significant. There was no evidence of significant associations among Hispanic, Asian, or American-Indian women. CONCLUSION:Postmenopausal White women with mild renal dysfunction are at increased risk of nonvertebral fracture. Effects of renal function on chronic inflammation may mediate this association. Reduced renal function may increase fracture risk among Black women, but there was little evidence to support this association among other racial/ethnic groups.

Project description:BackgroundPolygenic risk scores (PRSs) can stratify populations into cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk groups. We aimed to quantify the potential advantage of adding information on PRSs to conventional risk factors in the primary prevention of CVD.Methods and findingsUsing data from UK Biobank on 306,654 individuals without a history of CVD and not on lipid-lowering treatments (mean age [SD]: 56.0 [8.0] years; females: 57%; median follow-up: 8.1 years), we calculated measures of risk discrimination and reclassification upon addition of PRSs to risk factors in a conventional risk prediction model (i.e., age, sex, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, history of diabetes, and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). We then modelled the implications of initiating guideline-recommended statin therapy in a primary care setting using incidence rates from 2.1 million individuals from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The C-index, a measure of risk discrimination, was 0.710 (95% CI 0.703-0.717) for a CVD prediction model containing conventional risk predictors alone. Addition of information on PRSs increased the C-index by 0.012 (95% CI 0.009-0.015), and resulted in continuous net reclassification improvements of about 10% and 12% in cases and non-cases, respectively. If a PRS were assessed in the entire UK primary care population aged 40-75 years, assuming that statin therapy would be initiated in accordance with the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines (i.e., for persons with a predicted risk of ≥10% and for those with certain other risk factors, such as diabetes, irrespective of their 10-year predicted risk), then it could help prevent 1 additional CVD event for approximately every 5,750 individuals screened. By contrast, targeted assessment only among people at intermediate (i.e., 5% to <10%) 10-year CVD risk could help prevent 1 additional CVD event for approximately every 340 individuals screened. Such a targeted strategy could help prevent 7% more CVD events than conventional risk prediction alone. Potential gains afforded by assessment of PRSs on top of conventional risk factors would be about 1.5-fold greater than those provided by assessment of C-reactive protein, a plasma biomarker included in some risk prediction guidelines. Potential limitations of this study include its restriction to European ancestry participants and a lack of health economic evaluation.ConclusionsOur results suggest that addition of PRSs to conventional risk factors can modestly enhance prediction of first-onset CVD and could translate into population health benefits if used at scale.

Project description:Millions of postmenopausal women use multivitamins, often believing that supplements prevent chronic diseases such as cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Therefore, we decided to examine associations between multivitamin use and risk of cancer, CVD, and mortality in postmenopausal women.The study included 161 808 participants from the Women's Health Initiative clinical trials (N = 68 132 in 3 overlapping trials of hormone therapy, dietary modification, and calcium and vitamin D supplements) or an observational study (N = 93 676). Detailed data were collected on multivitamin use at baseline and follow-up time points. Study enrollment occurred between 1993 and 1998; the women were followed up for a median of 8.0 years in the clinical trials and 7.9 years in the observational study. Disease end points were collected through 2005. We documented cancers of the breast (invasive), colon/rectum, endometrium, kidney, bladder, stomach, ovary, and lung; CVD (myocardial infarction, stroke, and venous thromboembolism); and total mortality.A total of 41.5% of the participants used multivitamins. After a median of 8.0 years of follow-up in the clinical trial cohort and 7.9 years in the observational study cohort, 9619 cases of breast, colorectal, endometrial, renal, bladder, stomach, lung, or ovarian cancer; 8751 CVD events; and 9865 deaths were reported. Multivariate-adjusted analyses revealed no association of multivitamin use with risk of cancer (hazard ratio [HR], 0.98, and 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91-1.05 for breast cancer; HR, 0.99, and 95% CI, 0.88-1.11 for colorectal cancer; HR, 1.05, and 95% CI, 0.90-1.21 for endometrial cancer; HR, 1.0, and 95% CI, 0.88-1.13 for lung cancer; and HR, 1.07, and 95% CI, 0.88-1.29 for ovarian cancer); CVD (HR, 0.96, and 95% CI, 0.89-1.03 for myocardial infarction; HR, 0.99, and 95% CI, 0.91-1.07 for stroke; and HR, 1.05, and 95% CI, 0.85-1.29 for venous thromboembolism); or mortality (HR, 1.02, and 95% CI, 0.97-1.07).After a median follow-up of 8.0 and 7.9 years in the clinical trial and observational study cohorts, respectively, the Women's Health Initiative study provided convincing evidence that multivitamin use has little or no influence on the risk of common cancers, CVD, or total mortality in postmenopausal women.

Dataset Information

Comparison of the Framingham and Reynolds Risk scores for global cardiovascular risk prediction in the multiethnic Women's Health Initiative.

Publications

Comparison of the Framingham and Reynolds Risk scores for global cardiovascular risk prediction in the multiethnic Women's Health Initiative.

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