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Prediction of falls using a risk assessment tool in the acute care setting.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The British STRATIFY tool was previously developed to predict falls in hospital. Although the tool has several strengths, certain limitations exist which may not allow generalizability to a Canadian setting. Thus, we tested the STRATIFY tool with some modification and re-weighting of items in Canadian hospitals. METHODS: This was a prospective validation cohort study in four acute care medical units of two teaching hospitals in Hamilton, Ontario. In total, 620 patients over the age of 65 years admitted during a 6-month period. Five patient characteristics found to be risk factors for falls in the British STRATIFY study were tested for predictive validity. The characteristics included history of falls, mental impairment, visual impairment, toileting, and dependency in transfers and mobility. Multivariate logistic regression was used to obtain optimal weights for the construction of a risk score. A receiver-operating characteristic curve was generated to show sensitivities and specificities for predicting falls based on different threshold scores for considering patients at high risk. RESULTS: Inter-rater reliability for the weighted risk score indicated very good agreement (inter-class correlation coefficient = 0.78). History of falls, mental impairment, toileting difficulties, and dependency in transfer / mobility significantly predicted fallers. In the multivariate model, mental status was a significant predictor (P < 0.001) while history of falls and transfer / mobility difficulties approached significance (P = 0.089 and P = 0.077 respectively). The logistic regression model led to weights for a risk score on a 30-point scale. A risk score of 9 or more gave a sensitivity of 91% and specificity of 60% for predicting who would fall. CONCLUSION: Good predictive validity for identifying fallers was achieved in a Canadian setting using a simple-to-obtain risk score that can easily be incorporated into practice.

SUBMITTER: Papaioannou A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC333435 | biostudies-literature | 2004 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prediction of falls using a risk assessment tool in the acute care setting.

Papaioannou Alexandra A Parkinson William W Cook Richard R Ferko Nicole N Coker Esther E Adachi Jonathan D JD

BMC medicine 20040121

<h4>Background</h4>The British STRATIFY tool was previously developed to predict falls in hospital. Although the tool has several strengths, certain limitations exist which may not allow generalizability to a Canadian setting. Thus, we tested the STRATIFY tool with some modification and re-weighting of items in Canadian hospitals.<h4>Methods</h4>This was a prospective validation cohort study in four acute care medical units of two teaching hospitals in Hamilton, Ontario. In total, 620 patients o ...[more]

PMID: 14736342

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Project description:ObjectiveAlthough several falls risk assessment tools are available, it is unclear which have been validated and which would be most suitable for primary care practices. This systematic review aims to identify the most suitable falls risk assessment tool for the primary care setting (ie, requires limited time, no expensive equipment and no additional space) and that has good predictive performance in the assessment of falls risk among older people living independently.DesignA systematic review based on prospective studies.MethodsAn extensive search was conducted in the following databases: PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane and PsycINFO. Tools were excluded if they required expensive and/or advanced software that is not usually available in primary care units and if they had not been validated in at least three different studies. Of 2492 articles published between January 2000 and July 2020, 27 were included.ResultsSix falls risk assessment tools were identified: Timed Up and Go (TUG) test, Gait Speed test, Berg Balance Scale, Performance Oriented Mobility Assessment, Functional Reach test and falls history. Most articles reported area under the curve (AUC) values ranging from 0.5 to 0.7 for these tools. Sensitivity and specificity varied substantially across studies (eg, TUG, sensitivity:10%-83.3%, specificity:28.4%-96.6%).ConclusionsGiven that none of the falls risk assessment tools had sufficient predictive performance (AUC <0.7), other ways of assessing high falls risk among independently living older people in primary care should be investigated. For now, the most suitable way to assess falls risk in the primary care setting appears to involve asking patients about their falls history. Compared with the other five tools, the falls history requires the least amount of time, no expensive equipment, no training and no spatial adjustments. The clinical judgement of healthcare professionals continues to be most important, as it enables the identification of high falls risk even for patients with no falls history.Trial registraion numberThe Netherlands Trial Register, NL7917; Pre-results.

Project description:Despite development of new technologies for caries control, tooth decay in primary teeth remains a major global health problem. Caries risk assessment (CRA) models for toddlers and preschoolers are rare. Among them, almost all models use dental factors (e.g., past caries experience) to predict future caries risk, with limited clinical/community applicability owing to relatively uncommon dental visits compared to frequent medical visits during the first year of life. The objective of this study was to construct and evaluate risk prediction models using information easily accessible to medical practitioners to forecast caries at 2 and 3 y of age. Data were obtained from the Growing Up in Singapore Towards Healthy Outcomes (GUSTO) mother-offspring cohort. Caries was diagnosed using modified International Caries Detection and Assessment System criteria. Risk prediction models were constructed using multivariable logistic regression coupled with receiver operating characteristic analyses. Imputation was performed using multiple imputation by chained equations to assess effect of missing data. Caries rates at ages 2 y (n = 535) and 3 y (n = 721) were 17.8% and 42.9%, respectively. Risk prediction models predicting overall caries risk at 2 and 3 y demonstrated area under the curve (AUC) (95% confidence interval) of 0.81 (0.75-0.87) and 0.79 (0.74-0.84), respectively, while those predicting moderate to extensive lesions showed 0.91 (0.85-0.97) and 0.79 (0.73-0.85), respectively. Postimputation results showed reduced AUC of 0.75 (0.74-0.81) and 0.71 (0.67-0.75) at years 2 and 3, respectively, for overall caries risk, while AUC was 0.84 (0.76-0.92) and 0.75 (0.70-0.80), respectively, for moderate to extensive caries. Addition of anterior caries significantly increased AUC in all year 3 models with or without imputation (all P < 0.05). Significant predictors/protectors were identified, including ethnicity, prenatal tobacco smoke exposure, history of allergies before 12 mo, history of chronic maternal illness, maternal brushing frequency, childbearing age, and so on. Integrating oral-general health care using medical CRA models may be promising in screening caries-susceptible infants/toddlers, especially when medical professionals are trained to "lift the lip" to identify anterior caries lesions.

Project description:BackgroundAccurate assessment of COVID-19 severity in the community is essential for patient care and requires COVID-19-specific risk prediction scores adequately validated in a community setting. Following a qualitative phase to identify signs, symptoms, and risk factors, we aimed to develop and validate two COVID-19-specific risk prediction scores. Remote COVID-19 Assessment in Primary Care-General Practice score (RECAP-GP; without peripheral oxygen saturation [SpO2]) and RECAP-oxygen saturation score (RECAP-O2; with SpO2).MethodsRECAP was a prospective cohort study that used multivariable logistic regression. Data on signs and symptoms (predictors) of disease were collected from community-based patients with suspected COVID-19 via primary care electronic health records and linked with secondary data on hospital admission (outcome) within 28 days of symptom onset. Data sources for RECAP-GP were Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre (RCGP-RSC) primary care practices (development set), northwest London primary care practices (validation set), and the NHS COVID-19 Clinical Assessment Service (CCAS; validation set). The data source for RECAP-O2 was the Doctaly Assist platform (development set and validation set in subsequent sample). The two probabilistic risk prediction models were built by backwards elimination using the development sets and validated by application to the validation datasets. Estimated sample size per model, including the development and validation sets was 2880 people.FindingsData were available from 8311 individuals. Observations, such as SpO2, were mostly missing in the northwest London, RCGP-RSC, and CCAS data; however, SpO2 was available for 1364 (70·0%) of 1948 patients who used Doctaly. In the final predictive models, RECAP-GP (n=1863) included sex (male and female), age (years), degree of breathlessness (three point scale), temperature symptoms (two point scale), and presence of hypertension (yes or no); the area under the curve was 0·80 (95% CI 0·76-0·85) and on validation the negative predictive value of a low risk designation was 99% (95% CI 98·1-99·2; 1435 of 1453). RECAP-O2 included age (years), degree of breathlessness (two point scale), fatigue (two point scale), and SpO2 at rest (as a percentage); the area under the curve was 0·84 (0·78-0·90) and on validation the negative predictive value of low risk designation was 99% (95% CI 98·9-99·7; 1176 of 1183).InterpretationBoth RECAP models are valid tools to assess COVID-19 patients in the community. RECAP-GP can be used initially, without need for observations, to identify patients who require monitoring. If the patient is monitored and SpO2 is available, RECAP-O2 is useful to assess the need for treatment escalation.FundingCommunity Jameel and the Imperial College President's Excellence Fund, the Economic and Social Research Council, UK Research and Innovation, and Health Data Research UK.

Project description:BackgroundAs SARS-CoV-2 infection is sweeping the globe, early identification and timely management of infected patients will alleviate unmet health care demands and ultimately control of the disease. Remote COVID-19 self-assessment tools will offer a potential strategy for patient guidance on medical consultation versus home care without requiring direct attention from healthcare professionals.Objective(s)This study aimed to assess the validity and interrater reliability of the initial and modified versions of a COVID-19 self-assessment prediction tool introduced by the Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population (MoHP) early in the epidemic. The scoring tool was released for the public through media outlets for remote self-assessment of SARS-CoV-2 infection connecting patients with the appropriate level of care.MethodsWe evaluated the initial score in the analysis of 818 consecutive cases presenting with symptoms suggesting COVID-19 in a single-primary health care clinic in Alexandria during the epidemic in Egypt (mid-February through July). Validity parameters, interrater agreement and accuracy of the score as a triage tool were calculated versus the COVID-19 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test.ResultsA total of 818 patients reporting symptoms potentially attributable to COVID-19 were enrolled. The initial tool correctly identified 296 of 390 COVID-19 PCR +ve cases (sensitivity = 75.9%, specificity = 42.3%, positive predictive value = 54.5%, negative predictive value = 65.8%). The modified versions of the MoHP triage score yielded comparable results albeit with a better accuracy during the late epidemic phase. Recent history of travel [OR (95% CI) = 12.1 (5.0-29.4)] and being a health care worker [OR (95% CI) = 5.8 (2.8-11.9)] were major predictors of SARS-CoV-2 infection in early and late epidemic phases, respectively. On the other hand, direct contact with a respiratory infection case increased the risk of infection by three folds throughout the epidemic period.ConclusionThe tested score has a sufficient predictive value and potential as a triage tool in primary health care settings. Updated implementation of this home-grown tool will improve COVID-19 response at the primary health care level.

Project description:AimMost predictive models for falls developed previously were awkward to use because of their complexity. We developed and validated a new easier-to-use predictive model for falls of adult inpatients using easily accessible information including the public ADL scale in Japan.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed data from Japanese adult inpatients in an acute care hospital from 2012 to 2015. Two-thirds of cases were randomly extracted to the test set and one-third to the validation set. Data including age, sex, activity of daily living (ADL), public scales in Japan of ADL "bedriddenness rank," and cognitive function in daily living, hypnotic medications, previous falls, and emergency admission were derived from hospital records. Falls during hospitalization were identified from incident reports. Two predictive models were created by multivariate analysis, each of which was assessed by area under the curve (AUC) from the validation set.ResultsA total of 7,858 adult participants were available. The AUC of model 1, using 13 factors-age, sex (male), emergency admission, use of ambulance, referral letter, admission to Neurosurgery, admission to Internal Medicine, use of hypnotic medication, permanent damage by stroke, history of falls, visual impairment, independence of eating, and bedriddenness rank-with low mutual collinearity and showing significant relationship by multivariate logistic regression analysis, was 0.789 in the validation set. The AUC of parsimonious model 2, using age and seven factors-sex (male), emergency admission, admission to Neurosurgery, use of hypnotic medication, history of falls, independence of eating, and bedriddenness rank-showing statistical significance by multivariate analysis in model 1, was 0.787 in the validation set.ConclusionsWe proposed new predictive models for inpatients' fall using the public ADL scales in Japan, which had a higher degree of usability because of their use of simpler and fewer (8 or 13) predictors, especially parsimonious model 2.

Dataset Information

Prediction of falls using a risk assessment tool in the acute care setting.

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Prediction of falls using a risk assessment tool in the acute care setting.

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