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Prediction of outcome after moderate and severe traumatic brain injury: external validation of the International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials (IMPACT) and Corticoid Randomisation After Significant Head injury (CRASH) prognostic models.

ABSTRACT: The International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials and Corticoid Randomisation After Significant Head injury prognostic models predict outcome after traumatic brain injury but have not been compared in large datasets. The objective of this is study is to validate externally and compare the International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials and Corticoid Randomisation after Significant Head injury prognostic models for prediction of outcome after moderate or severe traumatic brain injury.External validation study.We considered five new datasets with a total of 9,036 patients, comprising three randomized trials and two observational series, containing prospectively collected individual traumatic brain injury patient data.Outcomes were mortality and unfavorable outcome, based on the Glasgow Outcome Score at 6 months after injury. To assess performance, we studied the discrimination of the models (by area under the receiver operating characteristic curves), and calibration (by comparison of the mean observed to predicted outcomes and calibration slopes). The highest discrimination was found in the Trauma Audit and Research Network trauma registry (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves between 0.83 and 0.87), and the lowest discrimination in the Pharmos trial (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves between 0.65 and 0.71). Although differences in predictor effects between development and validation populations were found (calibration slopes varying between 0.58 and 1.53), the differences in discrimination were largely explained by differences in case mix in the validation studies. Calibration was good, the fraction of observed outcomes generally agreed well with the mean predicted outcome. No meaningful differences were noted in performance between the International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials and Corticoid Randomisation After Significant Head injury models. More complex models discriminated slightly better than simpler variants.Since both the International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials and the Corticoid Randomisation After Significant Head injury prognostic models show good generalizability to more recent data, they are valid instruments to quantify prognosis in traumatic brain injury.

SUBMITTER: Roozenbeek B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3335746 | biostudies-literature | 2012 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prediction of outcome after moderate and severe traumatic brain injury: external validation of the International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials (IMPACT) and Corticoid Randomisation After Significant Head injury (CRASH) prognostic models.

Roozenbeek Bob B Lingsma Hester F HF Lecky Fiona E FE Lu Juan J Weir James J Butcher Isabella I McHugh Gillian S GS Murray Gordon D GD Perel Pablo P Maas Andrew I AI Steyerberg Ewout W EW

Critical care medicine 20120501 5

<h4>Objective</h4>The International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials and Corticoid Randomisation After Significant Head injury prognostic models predict outcome after traumatic brain injury but have not been compared in large datasets. The objective of this is study is to validate externally and compare the International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials and Corticoid Randomisation after Significant Head injury prognostic models for prediction of outcome af ...[more]

PMID: 22511138

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Project description:Background: Worldwide, traumatic brain injury (TBI) kills or hospitalises over 10 million people each year. Early intracranial bleeding is common after TBI, increasing the risk of death and disability. Tranexamic acid reduces blood loss in surgery and death due to bleeding in trauma patients with extra-cranial injury. Early administration of tranexamic acid in TBI patients might limit intracranial bleeding, reducing death and disability. The CRASH-3 trial aims to provide evidence on the effect of tranexamic acid on death and disability in TBI patients. We will randomly allocate about 13,000 TBI patients (approximately 10,000 within 3 hours of injury) to an intravenous infusion of tranexamic acid or matching placebo in addition to usual care. This paper presents a protocol update (version 2.1) and statistical analysis plan for the CRASH-3 trial. Results: The primary outcome is head injury death in hospital within 28 days of injury for patients treated within 3 hours of injury (deaths in patients treated after 3 hours will also be reported). Because there are reasons to expect that tranexamic acid will be most effective in patients treated immediately after injury and less effective with increasing delay, the effect in patients treated within one hour of injury is of particular interest. Secondary outcomes are all-cause and cause-specific mortality, vascular occlusive events, disability based on the Disability Rating Scale and measures suggested by patient representatives, seizures, neurosurgical intervention, neurosurgical blood loss, days in intensive care and adverse events. Sub-group analyses will examine the effect of tranexamic acid on head injury death stratified by time to treatment, severity of TBI and baseline risk. Conclusion: The CRASH-3 trial will provide reliable evidence of the effectiveness and safety of tranexamic acid in patients with acute TBI. Registration: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials registry ( ISRCTN15088122) 19/07/2011, and ClinicalTrials.gov ( NCT01402882) 25/07/2011.

Project description:BackgroundWorldwide, over 10 million people are killed or hospitalized because of traumatic brain injury each year. About 90% of deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. The condition mostly affects young adults, and many experience long lasting or permanent disability. The social and economic burden is considerable. Tranexamic acid (TXA) is commonly given to surgical patients to reduce bleeding and the need for blood transfusion. It has been shown to reduce the number of patients receiving a blood transfusion by about a third, reduces the volume of blood transfused by about one unit, and halves the need for further surgery to control bleeding in elective surgical patients.Methods/designThe CRASH-3 trial is an international, multicenter, pragmatic, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to quantify the effects of the early administration of TXA on death and disability in patients with traumatic brain injury. Ten thousand adult patients who fulfil the eligibility criteria will be randomized to receive TXA or placebo. Adults with traumatic brain injury, who are within 8 h of injury and have any intracranial bleeding on computerized tomography (CT scan) or Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) of 12 or less can be included if the responsible doctor is substantially uncertain as to whether or not to use TXA in this patient. Patients with significant extracranial bleeding will be excluded since there is evidence that TXA improves outcome in these patients. Treatment will entail a 1 g loading dose followed by a 1 g maintenance dose over 8 h.The main analyses will be on an 'intention-to-treat' basis, irrespective of whether the allocated treatment was received. Results will be presented as appropriate effect estimates with a measure of precision (95% confidence intervals). Subgroup analyses for the primary outcome will be based on time from injury to randomization, the severity of the injury, location of the bleeding, and baseline risk. Interaction tests will be used to test whether the effect of treatment differs across these subgroups. A study with 10,000 patients will have approximately 90% power to detect a 15% relative reduction from 20% to 17% in all-cause mortality.Trial registrationCurrent Controlled Trials ISRCTN15088122; Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01402882.

Project description:ObjectivesAfter traumatic brain injury, continuous electroencephalography is widely used to detect electrographic seizures. With the development of standardized continuous electroencephalography terminology, we aimed to describe the prevalence and burden of ictal-interictal patterns, including electrographic seizures after moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury and to correlate continuous electroencephalography features with functional outcome.DesignPost hoc analysis of the prospective, randomized controlled phase 2 multicenter INTREPID study (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00805818). Continuous electroencephalography was initiated upon admission to the ICU. The primary outcome was the 3-month Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended. Consensus electroencephalography reviews were performed by raters certified in standardized continuous electroencephalography terminology blinded to clinical data. Rhythmic, periodic, or ictal patterns were referred to as "ictal-interictal continuum"; severe ictal-interictal continuum was defined as greater than or equal to 1.5 Hz lateralized rhythmic delta activity or generalized periodic discharges and any lateralized periodic discharges or electrographic seizures.SettingTwenty U.S. level I trauma centers.PatientsPatients with nonpenetrating traumatic brain injury and postresuscitation Glasgow Coma Scale score of 4-12 were included.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsAmong 152 patients with continuous electroencephalography (age 34 ± 14 yr; 88% male), 22 (14%) had severe ictal-interictal continuum including electrographic seizures in four (2.6%). Severe ictal-interictal continuum burden correlated with initial prognostic scores, including the International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in Traumatic Brain Injury (r = 0.51; p = 0.01) and Injury Severity Score (r = 0.49; p = 0.01), but not with functional outcome. After controlling clinical covariates, unfavorable outcome was independently associated with absence of posterior dominant rhythm (common odds ratio, 3.38; 95% CI, 1.30-9.09), absence of N2 sleep transients (3.69; 1.69-8.20), predominant delta activity (2.82; 1.32-6.10), and discontinuous background (5.33; 2.28-12.96) within the first 72 hours of monitoring.ConclusionsSevere ictal-interictal continuum patterns, including electrographic seizures, were associated with clinical markers of injury severity but not functional outcome in this prospective cohort of patients with moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury. Importantly, continuous electroencephalography background features were independently associated with functional outcome and improved the area under the curve of existing, validated predictive models.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:To characterize admission patterns, treatments, and outcomes among patients with moderate traumatic brain injury. DESIGN:Retrospective cohort study. SETTING:National Trauma Data Bank. PATIENTS:Adults (age > 18 yr) with moderate traumatic brain injury (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth revision codes and admission Glasgow Coma Scale score of 9-13) in the National Trauma Data Bank between 2007 and 2014. INTERVENTIONS:None. MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS:Demographics, mechanism of injury, hospital course, and facility characteristics were examined. Admission characteristics associated with discharge outcomes were analyzed using multivariable Poisson regression models. Of 114,066 patients, most were white (62%), male (69%), and had median admission Glasgow Coma Scale score of 12 (interquartile range, 10-13). Seventy-seven percent had isolated traumatic brain injury. Concussion, which accounted for 25% of moderate traumatic brain injury, was the most frequent traumatic brain injury diagnosis. Fourteen percent received mechanical ventilation, and 66% were admitted to ICU. Over 50% received care at a community hospital. Seven percent died, and 32% had a poor outcome, including those with Glasgow Coma Scale score of 13. Compared with patients 18-44 years, patients 45-64 years were twice as likely (adjusted relative risk, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.92-2.02) and patients over 80 years were five times as likely (adjusted relative risk, 4.66; 95% CI, 4.55-4.76) to have a poor outcome. Patients with a poor discharge outcome were more likely to have had hypotension at admission (adjusted relative risk, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.06-1.14), lower admission Glasgow Coma Scale (adjusted relative risk, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.34-1.40), higher Injury Severity Score (adjusted relative risk, 2.97; 95% CI, 2.86-3.09), and polytrauma (adjusted relative risk, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.07), compared with those without poor discharge outcomes. CONCLUSIONS:Many patients with moderate traumatic brain injury deteriorate, require neurocritical care, and experience poor outcomes. Optimization of care and outcomes for this vulnerable group of patients are urgently needed.

Dataset Information

Prediction of outcome after moderate and severe traumatic brain injury: external validation of the International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials (IMPACT) and Corticoid Randomisation After Significant Head injury (CRASH) prognostic models.

Publications

Prediction of outcome after moderate and severe traumatic brain injury: external validation of the International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials (IMPACT) and Corticoid Randomisation After Significant Head injury (CRASH) prognostic models.

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