Dataset Information

Optimal portfolio design to reduce climate-related conservation uncertainty in the Prairie Pothole Region.

ABSTRACT: Climate change is likely to alter the spatial distributions of species and habitat types but the nature of such change is uncertain. Thus, climate change makes it difficult to implement standard conservation planning paradigms. Previous work has suggested some approaches to cope with such uncertainty but has not harnessed all of the benefits of risk diversification. We adapt Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to optimal spatial targeting of conservation activity, using wetland habitat conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) as an example. This approach finds the allocations of conservation activity among subregions of the planning area that maximize the expected conservation returns for a given level of uncertainty or minimize uncertainty for a given expected level of returns. We find that using MPT instead of simple diversification in the PPR can achieve a value of the conservation objective per dollar spent that is 15% higher for the same level of risk. MPT-based portfolios can also have 21% less uncertainty over benefits or 6% greater expected benefits than the current portfolio of PPR conservation. Total benefits from conservation investment are higher if returns are defined in terms of benefit-cost ratios rather than benefits alone. MPT-guided diversification can work to reduce the climate-change-induced uncertainty of future ecosystem-service benefits from many land policy and investment initiatives, especially when outcomes are negatively correlated between subregions of a planning area.

SUBMITTER: Ando AW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3340047 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Optimal portfolio design to reduce climate-related conservation uncertainty in the Prairie Pothole Region.

Ando Amy W AW Mallory Mindy L ML

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20120326 17

Climate change is likely to alter the spatial distributions of species and habitat types but the nature of such change is uncertain. Thus, climate change makes it difficult to implement standard conservation planning paradigms. Previous work has suggested some approaches to cope with such uncertainty but has not harnessed all of the benefits of risk diversification. We adapt Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to optimal spatial targeting of conservation activity, using wetland habitat conservation in ...[more]

PMID: 22451914

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Project description:The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is the most important waterfowl production area in North America. However, waterfowl populations there are predicted to decline because of climate-related drying of wetlands. Consequently, changes in the geographic focus of PPR waterfowl conservation have been recommended, which could have long-lasting and costly impacts. We used a 40-year dataset of pond counts collected in the PPR to test hypotheses about climate-related drying. We assessed May (1974-2013) and July (1974-2003) pond numbers in 20 waterfowl survey strata to determine if trends in pond numbers were consistent with predictions of drying. We also assessed trends in precipitation and temperature for the 20 strata and developed models describing May pond numbers from 1974 through 2010 as a function of precipitation, temperature, the previous year's pond numbers, and location. None of the 20 strata showed significant declines in May pond numbers, although seven strata showed increases over time. July pond numbers declined significantly in one stratum, and increased in seven strata. An index to hydroperiod showed significant increasing trends in three strata, and no strata had decreasing trends. Precipitation increased significantly in two strata and decreased in two from 1974 to 2010; no strata showed significant changes in temperature. The best linear model described pond numbers within all strata as a function of precipitation, temperature, the previous year's pond numbers, and the latitude and longitude of the stratum, and explained 62% of annual variation in pond numbers. We hypothesize that direct effects of climate change on prairie pothole wetlands and waterfowl may be overshadowed by indirect effects such as intensified land use and increased pressure to drain wetlands. We recommend that an adaptive, data-driven approach be used to resolve uncertainties regarding direct and indirect effects of climate change on prairie wetlands and waterfowl, and guide future conservation efforts.

Project description:Neonicotinoids currently dominate the insecticide market as seed treatments on Canada's major Prairie crops (e.g., canola). The potential impact to ecologically significant wetlands in this dominantly agro-environment has largely been overlooked while the distribution of use, incidence and level of contamination remains unreported. We modelled the spatial distribution of neonicotinoid use across the three Prairie Provinces in combination with temporal assessments of water and sediment concentrations in wetlands to measure four active ingredients (clothianidin, thiamethoxam, imidacloprid and acetamiprid). From 2009 to 2012, neonicotinoid use was increasing; by 2012, applications covered an estimated ∼11 million hectares (44% of Prairie cropland) with >216,000 kg of active ingredients. Thiamethoxam, followed by clothianidin, were the dominant seed treatments by mass and area. Areas of high neonicotinoid use were identified as high density canola or soybean production. Water sampled four times from 136 wetlands (spring, summer, fall 2012 and spring 2013) across four rural municipalities in Saskatchewan similarly revealed clothianidin and thiamethoxam in the majority of samples. In spring 2012 prior to seeding, 36% of wetlands contained at least one neonicotinoid. Detections increased to 62% in summer 2012, declined to 16% in fall, and increased to 91% the following spring 2013 after ice-off. Peak concentrations were recorded during summer 2012 for both thiamethoxam (range: <LOQ--1490 ng/L, canola) and clothianidin (range: <LOQ--3110 ng/L, canola). Sediment samples collected during the same period rarely (6%) contained neonicotinoid concentrations (which did not exceed 20 ng/L). Wetlands situated in barley, canola and oat fields consistently contained higher mean concentrations of neonicotinoids than in grasslands, but no individual crop singularly influenced overall detections or concentrations. Distribution maps indicate neonicotinoid use is increasing and becoming more widespread with concerns for environmental loading, while frequently detected neonicotinoid concentrations in Prairie wetlands suggest high persistence and transport into wetlands.

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Dataset Information

Optimal portfolio design to reduce climate-related conservation uncertainty in the Prairie Pothole Region.

Publications

Optimal portfolio design to reduce climate-related conservation uncertainty in the Prairie Pothole Region.

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