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Health and economic outcomes for exenatide once weekly, insulin, and pioglitazone therapies in the treatment of type 2 diabetes: a simulation analysis.

ABSTRACT: Patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) are at risk of long-term vascular complications. In trials, exenatide once weekly (ExQW), a GLP-1R agonist, improved glycemia, weight, blood pressure (BP), and lipids in patients with T2DM. We simulated potential effects of ExQW on vascular complications, survival, and medical costs over 20 years versus standard therapies.The Archimedes model was used to assess outcomes for ~25,000 virtual patients with T2DM (NHANES 1999-2006 [metformin ± sulfonylureas, age 57 years, body mass index 33 kg/m(2), weight 94 kg, duration T2DM 9 years, hemoglobin A1c [A1C] 8.1%]). The effects of three treatment strategies were modeled and compared to moderate-adherence insulin therapy: advancement to high-adherence insulin at A1C ? 8% (treat to target A1C < 7%) and addition of pioglitazone (PIO) or ExQW from simulation start. ExQW effects on A1C, weight, BP, and lipids were modeled from clinical trial data. Costs, inflated to represent 2010 $US, were derived from Medicare data, Drugstore.com, and publications. As ExQW was investigational, we omitted ExQW, PIO, and insulin pharmacy costs.By year 1, ExQW treatment decreased A1C (~1.5%), weight (~2 kg), and systolic BP (~5 mmHg). PIO and high-adherence insulin decreased A1C by ~1%, increased weight, and did not affect systolic BP. After 20 years, A1C was ~7% with all strategies. ExQW decreased rates of cardiovascular and microvascular complications more than PIO or high-adherence insulin versus moderate-adherence insulin. Over 20 years, ExQW treatment resulted in increased quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of ~0.3 years/person and cost savings of $469/life-year versus moderate adherence insulin. For PIO or high-adherence insulin, QALYs were virtually unchanged, and costs/life-year versus moderate-adherence insulin increased by $69 and $87, respectively.This long-term simulation demonstrated that ExQW treatment may decrease rates of cardiovascular and some microvascular complications of T2DM. Increased QALYs, and decreased costs were also projected.

SUBMITTER: Gaebler JA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3346268 | biostudies-literature | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Health and economic outcomes for exenatide once weekly, insulin, and pioglitazone therapies in the treatment of type 2 diabetes: a simulation analysis.

Gaebler Julia A JA Soto-Campos Gerardo G Alperin Peter P Cohen Marc M Blickensderfer Amy A Wintle Matthew M Maggs David D Hoogwerf Byron B Han Jenny J Pencek Richard R Peskin Barbara B

Vascular health and risk management 20120423

<h4>Background</h4>Patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) are at risk of long-term vascular complications. In trials, exenatide once weekly (ExQW), a GLP-1R agonist, improved glycemia, weight, blood pressure (BP), and lipids in patients with T2DM. We simulated potential effects of ExQW on vascular complications, survival, and medical costs over 20 years versus standard therapies.<h4>Patients and methods</h4>The Archimedes model was used to assess outcomes for ~25,000 virtual patients with T2DM (NH ...[more]

PMID: 22566747

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Project description:This analysis assessed whether responses with exenatide once weekly plus dapagliflozin (n?=?231), exenatide once weekly alone (n?=?230), or dapagliflozin alone (n?=?233) differed in key patient subpopulations of the DURATION-8 trial. Potential treatment-by-subgroup interactions for changes in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and body weight after 28?weeks were evaluated among subgroups determined by baseline HbA1c, age, sex, body mass index, type 2 diabetes duration, race, ethnicity and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Exenatide once weekly plus dapagliflozin reduced HbA1c and body weight across all subgroups: least-squares mean reductions ranged from -8.4 to -26.1?mmol/mol (-0.77% to -2.39%) for HbA1c and from -2.07 to -4.55?kg for body weight. Potential treatment-by-subgroup interactions (P?<?.10) were found for HbA1c change by age (P?= .016) and eGFR (P?= .097). Age subgroup analysis findings were not consistent with expected mechanistic effects, with the small number of patients aged ?65?years (n?=?74 vs n?=?499 for patients aged <65?years) limiting the interpretability of the interaction term. In the exenatide once weekly plus dapagliflozin and dapagliflozin groups, but not the exenatide once weekly group, HbA1c reductions were greater among patients with eGFR ?90 vs ?60 to <90?mL/min/1.73?m2 (least-squares mean reductions of -23.6 vs -19.0?mmol/mol [-2.16% vs -1.74%], -17.3 vs -12.0?mmol/mol [-1.58% vs -1.10%], and -17.7 vs -16.9?mmol/mol [-1.62% vs -1.55%] for the respective treatments); this was consistent with the mechanism of action of dapagliflozin. A potential treatment-by-subgroup interaction was observed for change in body weight by sex (P?= .099), with greater weight loss for women vs men across all treatments (range?-2.56 to -3.98?kg vs -0.56 to -2.99?kg). In conclusion, treatment with exenatide once weekly plus dapagliflozin reduced HbA1c and body weight across all patient subgroups and was more effective than exenatide once weekly or dapagliflozin alone in all adequately sized subgroups.

Project description:Diabetes is associated with a higher risk for adverse cardiovascular outcomes. To improve the health outcomes of patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM), the American Diabetes Association (ADA) recommended target goals for the improvement of glycemic control and the reduction of cardiovascular risk factors associated with the disease. This retrospective analysis calculated the absolute benefit increase (ABI) of using exenatide once weekly (QW), a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist, vs an oral glucose-lowering medication or insulin glargine to achieve ADA-recommended goals. The number needed to treat (NNT) to achieve these goals was also calculated and provides a useful clinical metric for comparing potential therapies from different drug classes.Patient data from three double-blind or open label, 26-week, randomized, controlled trials were retrospectively analyzed separately. ABI and NNT were calculated by comparing the percentage of patients treated with exenatide QW (N = 641) vs metformin (N = 246), sitagliptin (N = 329), pioglitazone (N = 328), or insulin glargine (N = 223), who achieved a single glycemic, weight, blood pressure, or lipid goal or a composite of these recommended goals, during the DURATION-2, -3, and -4 clinical trials.Significant ABIs favoring exenatide QW over all four glucose-lowering medications were observed for at least one HbA1c glycemic goal. NNTs of 4 and 5 were calculated when exenatide QW was compared to sitagliptin for attaining HbA1c goals of <7.0% and ?6.5%, respectively. Additionally, significantly more patients using exenatide QW compared to sitagliptin, pioglitazone, or insulin glargine attained the composite goal of HbA1c <7% or ?6.5%, without weight gain or hypoglycemia. Exenatide QW was also favored over sitagliptin and insulin glargine for the achievement of the composite goals of HbA1c <7% (or ?6.5%), systolic blood pressure <130 mm Hg, and low-density lipoprotein <2.59 mmol/L. For most goals, exenatide QW and metformin had similar effects in treatment naïve patients.This analysis assessed the between-therapy differences in achieving therapeutic goals with therapies commonly used for glycemic control in patients with T2DM. In clinical trials, exenatide QW assisted more patients in reaching the majority of ADA-recommended therapeutic goals than treatment with sitagliptin, pioglitazone, or insulin glargine.NCT00637273, NCT00641056, NCT00676338.

Project description:Background In the EXSCEL (Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering), exenatide once-weekly resulted in a nonsignificant reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events ( MACEs ) and a nominal 14% reduction in all-cause mortality in 14 752 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2 DM ) with and without cardiovascular disease. Whether patients at increased risk for events experienced a comparatively greater treatment benefit with exenatide is unknown. Methods and Results In the EXSCEL population, we created risk scores for MACEs and all-cause mortality using step-wise selection of baseline characteristics. A risk score was calculated for each patient, and a time-to-event model for each end point was developed including the risk score, treatment assignment, and risk-treatment interaction. Interaction P values evaluating for a differential treatment effect by baseline risk were reported. Over a median follow-up of 3.2 years (interquartile range, 2.2, 4.4), 1091 (7.4%) patients died and 1744 (11.8%) experienced a MACE . Independent predictors of MACEs and all-cause mortality included age, sex, comorbidities (eg, previous cardiovascular event), body mass index, blood pressure, hemoglobin A1c, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. The all-cause mortality and MACE risk models had modest discrimination with optimism-corrected c-indices of 0.73 and 0.71, respectively. No interaction was observed between treatment effect and risk profile for either end point (both interactions, P>0.1). Conclusions Baseline characteristics (eg, age, previous cardiovascular events) and routine laboratory values (eg, hemoglobin A1c, estimated glomerular filtration rate) provided modest prognostic value for mortality and MACEs in a broad population of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Exenatide's effects on mortality and MACEs were consistent across the spectrum of baseline risk. Clinical Trial Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT 01144338.

Dataset Information

Health and economic outcomes for exenatide once weekly, insulin, and pioglitazone therapies in the treatment of type 2 diabetes: a simulation analysis.

Publications

Health and economic outcomes for exenatide once weekly, insulin, and pioglitazone therapies in the treatment of type 2 diabetes: a simulation analysis.

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