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Effects of varying temporal scale on spatial models of mortality patterns attributed to pediatric diarrhea.

ABSTRACT: Public health data is often highly aggregated in time and space. The consequences of temporal aggregation for modeling in support of policy decisions have largely been overlooked. We examine the effects of changing temporal scale on spatial regression models of pediatric diarrhea mortality patterns, mortality rates and mortality peak timing, in Mexico. We compare annual and decadal level univariate models that incorporate known risk factors. Based on normalized sums of squared differences we compare between annual and decadal coefficients for variables that were significant in decadal models. We observed that spurious relationships might be created through aggregating time scales; obscuring interannual variation and resulting in inflated model diagnostics. In fact, variable selection and coefficient values can vary with changing temporal aggregation. Some variables that were significant at the decadal level were not significant at the annual level. Implications of such aggregation should be part of risk communication to policy makers.

SUBMITTER: Leyk S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3356681 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Effects of varying temporal scale on spatial models of mortality patterns attributed to pediatric diarrhea.

Leyk S S McCormick B J J BJ Nuckols J R JR

Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology 20110601 2

Public health data is often highly aggregated in time and space. The consequences of temporal aggregation for modeling in support of policy decisions have largely been overlooked. We examine the effects of changing temporal scale on spatial regression models of pediatric diarrhea mortality patterns, mortality rates and mortality peak timing, in Mexico. We compare annual and decadal level univariate models that incorporate known risk factors. Based on normalized sums of squared differences we com ...[more]

PMID: 22623950

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Spatial analysis has been vital in mapping the spread of diseases and assisting in policy making. Targeting diarrhea transmission hotspots is one of the potential strategies for reducing diarrhea cases. This study aimed to examine the spatial-temporal variations and to identify the modifiable determinants of diarrhea while controlling for the spatial dependence in the data. METHODS:An ecological study on diarrhea data from DLHS-3 and NFHS- 4 in India. Moran's I and LISA were used to detect the spatial clustering of diarrhea cases and to test for clustering in the data. Spatial regression was used to identify the modifiable factors associated with the prevalence of diarrhea. The study comprised of the prevalence of diarrhea among the children below the age of five years (U-5?s) across different states in India. The determinants of diarrhea were obtained using spatial lag models. The software used were GeoDa 1.6.6 and QGIS 2.0. RESULTS:The presence of spatial autocorrelation in DLHS-3 and NFHS-4 (Moron's I?=?0.577 and 0.369 respectively) enforces the usage of geographical properties while modeling the diarrhea data. The geographic clustering of high-prevalence districts was observed in the state of UP consistently. The spatial pattern of the percentage of children with diarrhea was persistently associated with the household with a sanitation facility (%) (p?=?0.023 and p?=?0.011). Compared to the diarrhea cases in the period 2007-2008, no much reduction was observed in the period 2015-2016. The prevalence of diarrhea and percentage of household with sanitation were ranging between 0.1-33.8% and 1.3-96.1% in the period 2007-2008 and 0.6-29.1% and 10.4-92.0% in the period 2015-2016 respectively. The least and highest prevalence of diarrhea being consistently from Assam and UP respectively. CONCLUSION:Despite improvements in controlling spread of diarrheal disease, the burden remains high. Focus on widespread diarrheal disease control strategy by addressing the social determinants of health like basic sanitation is crucial to reduce the burden of diarrhea among U-5?s in India. The identification of hotspots will aid in the planning of control strategies for goal setting in the targeted regions.

Project description:BACKGROUND: The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. METHODS: We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. RESULTS: Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south-north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918-19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918-19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality.

Project description:BackgroundDespite improvements in prevention efforts, childhood diarrhea remains a public health concern. However, there may be substantial variation influenced by place, time, and season. Description of diarrheal clusters in time and space and understanding seasonal patterns can improve surveillance and management. The present study investigated the spatial and seasonal distribution and purely spatial, purely temporal, and space-time clusters of childhood diarrhea in Southern Ethiopia.MethodsThe study was a retrospective analysis of data from the Health Management Information System (HMIS) under-five diarrheal morbidity reports from July 2011 to June 2017 in Sidama Zone. Annual diarrhea incidence at district level was calculated. Incidence rate calculation and seasonal trend analysis were performed. The Kulldorff SaTScan software with a discrete Poisson model was used to identify statistically significant special, temporal, and space-time diarrhea clusters. ArcGIS 10.1 was used to plot the maps.ResultsA total of 202,406 under-five diarrheal cases with an annual case of 5822 per 100,000 under-five population were reported. An increasing trend of diarrhea incidence was observed over the 6 years with seasonal variation picking between February and May. The highest incidence rate (135.8/1000) was observed in the year 2016/17 in Boricha district. One statistically significant most likely spatial cluster (Boricha district) and six secondary clusters (Malga, Hulla, Aleta Wondo, Shebedino, Loka Abaya, Dale, and Wondogenet) were identified. One statistically significant temporal cluster (LLR = 2109.93, p < 0.001) during December 2013 to May 2015 was observed in all districts. Statistically significant spatiotemporal primary hotspot was observed in December 2012 to January 2015 in Malga district with a likelihood ratio of 1214.67 and a relative risk of 2.03. First, second, third, and fourth secondary hotspots occurred from January 2012 to May 2012 in Loka Abaya, December 2011 in Bursa, from March to April 2014 in Gorchie, and March 2012 in Wonsho districts.ConclusionChildhood diarrhea was not distributed randomly over space and time and showed an overall increasing trend of seasonal variation peaking between February and May. The health department and other stakeholders at various levels need to plan targeted interventional activities at hotspot seasons and areas to reduce morbidity and mortality.

Project description:Many large carnivores occupy a wide geographic distribution, and face threats from habitat loss and fragmentation, poaching, prey depletion, and human wildlife-conflicts. Conservation requires robust techniques for estimating population densities and trends, but the elusive nature and low densities of many large carnivores make them difficult to detect. Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models provide a means for handling imperfect detectability, while linking population estimates to individual movement patterns to provide more accurate estimates than standard approaches. Within this framework, we investigate the effect of different sample interval lengths on density estimates, using simulations and a common leopard (Panthera pardus) model system. We apply Bayesian SCR methods to 89 simulated datasets and camera-trapping data from 22 leopards captured 82 times during winter 2010-2011 in Royal Manas National Park, Bhutan. We show that sample interval length from daily, weekly, monthly or quarterly periods did not appreciably affect median abundance or density, but did influence precision. We observed the largest gains in precision when moving from quarterly to shorter intervals. We therefore recommend daily sampling intervals for monitoring rare or elusive species where practicable, but note that monthly or quarterly sample periods can have similar informative value. We further develop a novel application of Bayes factors to select models where multiple ecological factors are integrated into density estimation. Our simulations demonstrate that these methods can help identify the "true" explanatory mechanisms underlying the data. Using this method, we found strong evidence for sex-specific movement distributions in leopards, suggesting that sexual patterns of space-use influence density. This model estimated a density of 10.0 leopards/100 km2 (95% credibility interval: 6.25-15.93), comparable to contemporary estimates in Asia. These SCR methods provide a guide to monitor and observe the effect of management interventions on leopards and other species of conservation interest.

Dataset Information

Effects of varying temporal scale on spatial models of mortality patterns attributed to pediatric diarrhea.

Publications

Effects of varying temporal scale on spatial models of mortality patterns attributed to pediatric diarrhea.

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