Dataset Information

Prediction of long-term mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention in older adults: results from the National Cardiovascular Data Registry.

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study was to develop a long-term model to predict mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention in both patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and those with more stable coronary disease.The American College of Cardiology Foundation CathPCI Registry data were linked to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services 100% denominator file by probabilistic matching. Preprocedure demographic and clinical variables from the CathPCI Registry were used to predict the probability of death over 3 years as recorded in the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services database. Between 2004 and 2007, 343 466 patients (66%) of 518 195 patients aged ?65 years undergoing first percutaneous coronary intervention in the CathPCI Registry were successfully linked to Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data. This study population was randomly divided into 60% derivation and 40% validation cohorts. Median follow-up was 15 months, with mortality of 3.0% at 30 days and 8.7%, 13.4%, and 18.7% at 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively. Twenty-four characteristics related to demographics, clinical comorbidity, prior history of disease, and indices of disease severity and acuity were identified as being associated with mortality. The C indices in the validation cohorts for patients with and without ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction were 0.79 and 0.78. The model calibrated well across a wide range of predicted probabilities.On the basis of the large and nationally representative CathPCI Registry, we have developed a model that has excellent discrimination, calibration, and validation to predict survival up to 3 years after percutaneous coronary intervention.

SUBMITTER: Weintraub WS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3356775 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prediction of long-term mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention in older adults: results from the National Cardiovascular Data Registry.

Weintraub William S WS Grau-Sepulveda Maria V MV Weiss Jocelyn M JM Delong Elizabeth R ER Peterson Eric D ED O'Brien Sean M SM Kolm Paul P Klein Lloyd W LW Shaw Richard E RE McKay Charles C Ritzenthaler Laura L LL Popma Jeffrey J JJ Messenger John C JC Shahian David M DM Grover Frederick L FL Mayer John E JE Garratt Kirk N KN Moussa Issam D ID Edwards Fred H FH Dangas George D GD

Circulation 20120223 12

<h4>Background</h4>The purpose of this study was to develop a long-term model to predict mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention in both patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and those with more stable coronary disease.<h4>Methods and results</h4>The American College of Cardiology Foundation CathPCI Registry data were linked to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services 100% denominator file by probabilistic matching. Preprocedure demographic and clinical variab ...[more]

PMID: 22361329

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Project description:ImportanceBetter prediction of major bleeding after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) may improve clinical decisions aimed to reduce bleeding risk. Machine learning techniques, bolstered by better selection of variables, hold promise for enhancing prediction.ObjectiveTo determine whether machine learning techniques better predict post-PCI major bleeding compared with the existing National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) models.Design, setting, and participantsThis comparative effectiveness study used the NCDR CathPCI Registry data version 4.4 (July 1, 2009, to April 1, 2015), machine learning techniques were used (logistic regression with lasso regularization and gradient descent boosting [XGBoost, version 0.71.2]), and output was then compared with the existing simplified risk score and full NCDR models. The existing models were recreated, and then performance was evaluated through additional techniques and variables in a 5-fold cross-validation in analysis conducted from October 1, 2015, to October 27, 2017. The setting was retrospective modeling of a nationwide clinical registry of PCI. Participants were all patients undergoing PCI. Percutaneous coronary intervention procedures were excluded if they were not the index PCI of admission, if the hospital site had missing outcomes measures, or if the patient underwent subsequent coronary artery bypass grafting.ExposuresClinical variables available at admission and diagnostic coronary angiography data were used to determine the severity and complexity of presentation.Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcome was in-hospital major bleeding within 72 hours after PCI. Results were evaluated by comparing C statistics, calibration, and decision threshold-based metrics, including the F score (harmonic mean of positive predictive value and sensitivity) and the false discovery rate.ResultsThe post-PCI major bleeding rate among 3 316 465 procedures (patients' median age, 65 years; interquartile range, 56-73 years; 68.1% male) was 4.5%. The existing full model achieved a mean C statistic of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.78-0.78). The use of XGBoost and full range of selected variables achieved a C statistic of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.82-0.82), with an F score of 0.31 (95% CI, 0.30-0.31). XGBoost correctly identified an additional 3.7% of cases identified as high risk who experienced a bleeding event and an overall improvement of 1.0% of cases identified as low risk who did not experience a bleeding event. The data-driven decision threshold helped improve the false discovery rate of the existing techniques. The existing simplified risk score model improved the false discovery rate from more than 90% to 78.7%. Modifying the model and the data decision threshold improved this rate from 78.7% to 73.4%.Conclusions and relevanceMachine learning techniques improved the prediction of major bleeding after PCI. These techniques may help to better identify patients who would benefit most from strategies to reduce bleeding risk.

Project description:ImportanceDiagnostic coronary angiography in asymptomatic patients may lead to inappropriate percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) due to a diagnostic-therapeutic cascade. Understanding the association between patient selection for coronary angiography and PCI appropriateness may inform strategies to minimize inappropriate procedures.ObjectiveTo determine if hospitals that frequently perform coronary angiography in asymptomatic patients, a clinical scenario in which the benefit of angiography is less clear, are more likely to perform inappropriate PCI.Design, setting, and participantsMulticenter observational study of 544 hospitals participating in the CathPCI Registry between July 1, 2009, and September 30, 2013.Main outcomes and measuresHospital proportion of asymptomatic patients at diagnostic coronary angiography and hospital rate of inappropriate PCI as defined by 2012 appropriate use criteria for coronary revascularization.ResultsOf 1 225 562 patients who underwent elective coronary angiography, 308 083 (25.1%) were asymptomatic. The hospital proportion of angiography among asymptomatic patients ranged from 1.0% to 73.6% (median, 24.7%; interquartile range, 15.9%-35.9%). By hospital quartile of asymptomatic patients at angiography, hospitals with higher rates of asymptomatic patients at angiography had higher median rates of inappropriate PCI (14.8% vs 20.2% vs 24.0 vs 29.4% from lowest to highest quartile, P < .001 for trend). This outcome was attributable to more frequent use of inappropriate PCI in asymptomatic patients at hospitals with higher rates of angiography in asymptomatic patients (5.4% vs 9.9% vs 14.7% vs 21.6% from lowest to highest quartile, P < .001 for trend). Hospitals with higher rates of asymptomatic patients at angiography also had lower rates of appropriate PCI (38.7% vs 33.0% vs 32.3% vs 32.9% from lowest to highest quartile, P < .001 for trend).Conclusions and relevanceIn a national sample of hospitals, performance of coronary angiography in asymptomatic patients was associated with higher rates of inappropriate PCI and lower rates of appropriate PCI. Improving preprocedural risk stratification and thresholds for coronary angiography may be one strategy to improve the appropriateness of PCI.

Project description:ImportanceFollowing negative randomized clinical trials, US guidelines downgraded support for routine manual aspiration thrombectomy (AT) during primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). However, some PCI operators continue to endorse a clinical benefit with AT use despite the lack of supportive data.ObjectiveTo examine temporal trends and comparative outcomes of AT use during pPCI for STEMI.Design, setting, and participantsRetrospective cohort study of the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) CathPCI Registry from July 1, 2009, to June 30, 2016, to assess temporal trends and in-hospital outcomes associated with AT use. To evaluate outcomes through 180 days, a subanalysis was conducted among Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services-linked patients from July 1, 2009, through December 31, 2014. The comparative effectiveness analysis was performed using instrumental variable analyses to account for treatment selection bias. The instrumental variable was operator's preference to use AT during pPCI. Data were analyzed between February 1, 2017, and April 1, 2018.ExposuresAspiration thrombectomy use during pPCI for STEMI.Main outcomes and measuresPrimary outcomes included in-hospital stroke and death. Secondary outcomes included heart failure, stroke, all-cause rehospitalization, and death through 180 days of follow-up.ResultsAmong all pPCIs performed (683 584), the mean (SD) age of patients was 61.7 (12.8) years, 489 257 were male (71.6%), and 596 384 were white (87.2%). Among patients undergoing pPCI, AT use increased from 2009 through 2011, with peak use of 13.8%. This was followed by a decline of more than 9%, reaching 4.7% by mid-2016. Overall, AT was used in 10.8% of pPCIs (lowest operator group median, 0%; highest operator group median, 33.8%). After instrumental variable analysis, AT use was associated with no difference in in-hospital death (adjusted absolute risk difference, -0.18%; 95% CI, -0.53% to 0.16%; P = .29) and a small increase in in-hospital stroke (adjusted RD, 0.14%; 95% CI, 0.01%-0.30%; P = .03). Among Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services-linked patients, AT use was not associated with differences in death, heart failure, stroke, or rehospitalization at 180 days.Conclusions and relevanceIn this large, nationwide analysis, AT use during STEMI pPCI declined by more than 50% since 2011, with use as of mid-2016 at less than 5%. Selective AT use was associated with a small excess risk of in-hospital stroke and no difference in other outcomes through 180 days of follow-up.

Dataset Information

Prediction of long-term mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention in older adults: results from the National Cardiovascular Data Registry.

Publications

Prediction of long-term mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention in older adults: results from the National Cardiovascular Data Registry.

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