Mortality and denial of admission to an intensive care unit.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Checkley W
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3359892 | biostudies-literature | 2012 May
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Mortality and denial of admission to an intensive care unit.
American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine 20120501 10
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Project description:Background There are no risk scores designed specifically for mortality risk prediction in unselected cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) patients. We sought to develop a novel CICU-specific risk score for prediction of hospital mortality using variables available at the time of CICU admission. Methods and Results A database of CICU patients admitted from January 1, 2007 to April 30, 2018 was divided into derivation and validation cohorts. The top 7 predictors of hospital mortality were identified using stepwise backward regression, then used to develop the Mayo CICU Admission Risk Score (M-CARS), with integer scores ranging from 0 to 10. Discrimination was assessed using area under the receiver-operator curve analysis. Calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The derivation cohort included 10 004 patients and the validation cohort included 2634 patients (mean age 67.6 years, 37.7% females). Hospital mortality was 9.2%. Predictor variables included in the M-CARS were cardiac arrest, shock, respiratory failure, Braden skin score, blood urea nitrogen, anion gap and red blood cell distribution width at the time of CICU admission. The M-CARS showed a graded relationship with hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.84 for each 1-point increase in M-CARS, 95% CI 1.78-1.89). In the validation cohort, the M-CARS had an area under the receiver-operator curve of 0.86 for hospital mortality, with good calibration (P=0.21). The 47.1% of patients with M-CARS <2 had hospital mortality of 0.8%, and the 5.2% of patients with M-CARS >6 had hospital mortality of 51.6%. Conclusions Using 7 variables available at the time of CICU admission, the M-CARS can predict hospital mortality in unselected CICU patients with excellent discrimination.
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Project description:BackgroundRecent interest in the 'weekend effect' has been expanded to cardiovascular intensive care units, yet the impact of off-hours admission on mortality and cardiovascular ICU (CICU) length of stay remains uncertain.ObjectivesWe examine the association between CICU admission day and time with mortality. Additionally, length-of-stay was also evaluated in relation to admission time.MethodsA single-center, retrospective cohort study was conducted including 10,638 adult patients admitted to a CICU in a tertiary-care academic medical center from July 1, 2012 to June 30, 2019. ICU mortality and length-of-stay were assessed by admission day and time adjusting for comorbid conditions and other clinical variables. We used logistic regression models to evaluate the factors associated with mortality and a generalized linear model (GLM) with log link function and gamma distribution was used to evaluate the factors associated with ICU length of stay.ResultsCompared to weekday-day admissions, we observed an increased mortality for weekend-day for all admissions (6.5 vs 9.6%, Adjusted OR: 1.32 (1.03-1.72)), and for medical CICU admissions (7.6 vs 9.9%, Adjusted OR: 1.35 (1.02-1.79)). Additionally, compared to weekday-day, weekday-night admission was associated with 7% longer ICU length of stay in surgical ICU patients, 7% shorter length of stay in medical ICU patients.ConclusionAdmission to this open-model CICU during weekend hours (Saturday 08:00-Sunday 17:59) versus nights or weekdays is associated with increased mortality. ICU staffing care models should not significantly change based on the day of the week.
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Project description:ObjectiveTo compare the performance of machine learning models against the traditionally derived Combined Assessment of Risk Encountered in Surgery (CARES) model and the American Society of Anaesthesiologists-Physical Status (ASA-PS) in the prediction of 30-day postsurgical mortality and need for intensive care unit (ICU) stay >24 hours.BackgroundPrediction of surgical risk preoperatively is important for clinical shared decision-making and planning of health resources such as ICU beds. The current growth of electronic medical records coupled with machine learning presents an opportunity to improve the performance of established risk models.MethodsAll patients aged 18 years and above who underwent noncardiac and nonneurological surgery at Singapore General Hospital (SGH) between 1 January 2012 and 31 October 2016 were included. Patient demographics, comorbidities, preoperative laboratory results, and surgery details were obtained from their electronic medical records. Seventy percent of the observations were randomly selected for training, leaving 30% for testing. Baseline models were CARES and ASA-PS. Candidate models were trained using random forest, adaptive boosting, gradient boosting, and support vector machine. Models were evaluated on area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC).ResultsA total of 90,785 patients were included, of whom 539 (0.6%) died within 30 days and 1264 (1.4%) required ICU admission >24 hours postoperatively. Baseline models achieved high AUROCs despite poor sensitivities by predicting all negative in a predominantly negative dataset. Gradient boosting was the best performing model with AUPRCs of 0.23 and 0.38 for mortality and ICU admission outcomes respectively.ConclusionsMachine learning can be used to improve surgical risk prediction compared to traditional risk calculators. AUPRC should be used to evaluate model predictive performance instead of AUROC when the dataset is imbalanced.
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Project description:Interventions: case group:None;control group:None
Primary outcome(s): Admission to ICU after surgery
Study Design: Case-Control study
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