Mortality and denial of admission to an intensive care unit.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Checkley W
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3359892 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:ObjectiveTo compare the incidence of, and mortality after, intensive care unit (ICU) admission as well as the characteristics of critical illness in the multiple sclerosis (MS) population vs the general population.MethodsWe used population-based administrative data from the Canadian province of Manitoba for the period 1984 to 2010 and clinical data from 93% of admissions to provincial high-intensity adult ICUs. We identified 5,035 prevalent cases of MS and a cohort from the general population matched 5:1 on age, sex, and region of residence. We compared these populations using incidence rates and multivariable regression models adjusting for age, sex, comorbidity, and socioeconomic status.ResultsFrom January 2000 to October 2009, the age- and sex-standardized annual incidence of ICU admission among prevalent cohorts was 0.51% to 1.07% in the MS population and 0.34% to 0.51% in matched controls. The adjusted risk of ICU admission was higher for the MS population (hazard ratio 1.45; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-1.75) than for matched controls. The MS population was more likely to be admitted for infection than the matched controls (odds ratio 1.82; 95% CI 1.10-1.32). Compared with the matched controls admitted to ICUs, 1-year mortality was higher in the MS population (relative risk 2.06; 95% CI 1.32-3.07) and was particularly elevated in patients with MS who were younger than 40 years (relative risk 3.77; 95% CI 1.45-8.11). Causes of death were MS (9.3%), infections (37.0%), and other causes (52.9%).ConclusionsCompared with the general population, the risk of ICU admission is higher in MS, and 1-year mortality after admission is higher. Greater attention to preventing infection and managing comorbidity is needed in the MS population.
| S-EPMC4118502 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can lead to multiorgan damage and fatal outcomes. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are detectable in blood, reflecting cell activation and tissue injury. We performed small RNA-Seq in healthy controls (N=11), non-severe (N=18) and severe (N=16) COVID-19 patients
2021-11-17 | GSE176498 | GEO
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8040757 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background There are no risk scores designed specifically for mortality risk prediction in unselected cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) patients. We sought to develop a novel CICU-specific risk score for prediction of hospital mortality using variables available at the time of CICU admission. Methods and Results A database of CICU patients admitted from January 1, 2007 to April 30, 2018 was divided into derivation and validation cohorts. The top 7 predictors of hospital mortality were identified using stepwise backward regression, then used to develop the Mayo CICU Admission Risk Score (M-CARS), with integer scores ranging from 0 to 10. Discrimination was assessed using area under the receiver-operator curve analysis. Calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The derivation cohort included 10 004 patients and the validation cohort included 2634 patients (mean age 67.6 years, 37.7% females). Hospital mortality was 9.2%. Predictor variables included in the M-CARS were cardiac arrest, shock, respiratory failure, Braden skin score, blood urea nitrogen, anion gap and red blood cell distribution width at the time of CICU admission. The M-CARS showed a graded relationship with hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.84 for each 1-point increase in M-CARS, 95% CI 1.78-1.89). In the validation cohort, the M-CARS had an area under the receiver-operator curve of 0.86 for hospital mortality, with good calibration (P=0.21). The 47.1% of patients with M-CARS <2 had hospital mortality of 0.8%, and the 5.2% of patients with M-CARS >6 had hospital mortality of 51.6%. Conclusions Using 7 variables available at the time of CICU admission, the M-CARS can predict hospital mortality in unselected CICU patients with excellent discrimination.
| S-EPMC6755843 | biostudies-other
Project description:ObjectiveTo compare the performance of machine learning models against the traditionally derived Combined Assessment of Risk Encountered in Surgery (CARES) model and the American Society of Anaesthesiologists-Physical Status (ASA-PS) in the prediction of 30-day postsurgical mortality and need for intensive care unit (ICU) stay >24 hours.BackgroundPrediction of surgical risk preoperatively is important for clinical shared decision-making and planning of health resources such as ICU beds. The current growth of electronic medical records coupled with machine learning presents an opportunity to improve the performance of established risk models.MethodsAll patients aged 18 years and above who underwent noncardiac and nonneurological surgery at Singapore General Hospital (SGH) between 1 January 2012 and 31 October 2016 were included. Patient demographics, comorbidities, preoperative laboratory results, and surgery details were obtained from their electronic medical records. Seventy percent of the observations were randomly selected for training, leaving 30% for testing. Baseline models were CARES and ASA-PS. Candidate models were trained using random forest, adaptive boosting, gradient boosting, and support vector machine. Models were evaluated on area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC).ResultsA total of 90,785 patients were included, of whom 539 (0.6%) died within 30 days and 1264 (1.4%) required ICU admission >24 hours postoperatively. Baseline models achieved high AUROCs despite poor sensitivities by predicting all negative in a predominantly negative dataset. Gradient boosting was the best performing model with AUPRCs of 0.23 and 0.38 for mortality and ICU admission outcomes respectively.ConclusionsMachine learning can be used to improve surgical risk prediction compared to traditional risk calculators. AUPRC should be used to evaluate model predictive performance instead of AUROC when the dataset is imbalanced.
| S-EPMC7668340 | biostudies-literature
Project description:An accurate method to predict the mortality in the intensive care unit (ICU) patients has been required, especially in children. The aim of this study is to evaluate the value of serum anion gap (AG) for predicting mortality in pediatric ICU (PICU). We reviewed a data of 461 pediatric patients were collected on PICU admission. Corrected anion gap (cAG), the AG compensated for abnormal albumin levels, was significantly lower in survivors compared with nonsurvivors (p < 0.001). Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified the following variables as independent predictors of mortality; cAG (OR 1.110, 95% CI 1.06-1.17; p < 0.001), PIM3 [OR 7.583, 95% CI 1.81-31.78; p = 0.006], and PRISM III [OR 1.076, 95% CI 1.02-1.14; p = 0.008]. Comparing AUCs for mortality prediction, there were no statistically significant differences between cAG and other mortality prediction models; cAG 0.728, PIM2 0.779, PIM3 0.822, and PRISM III 0.808. The corporation of cAG to pre-existing mortality prediction models was significantly more accurate at predicting mortality than using any of these models alone. We concluded that cAG at ICU admission may be used to predict mortality in children, regardless of underlying etiology. And the incorporation of cAG to pre-existing mortality prediction models might improve predictability.
| S-EPMC5431089 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Interventions: case group:None;control group:None
Primary outcome(s): Admission to ICU after surgery
Study Design: Case-Control study
| 41218 | ecrin-mdr-crc
Project description:BackgroundForecasting models for intensive care occupancy of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients are important in the current pandemic for strategic planning of patient allocation and avoidance of regional overcrowding. They are often trained entirely on retrospective infection and occupancy data, which can cause forecast uncertainty to grow exponentially with the forecast horizon.MethodologyWe propose an alternative modeling approach in which the model is created largely independent of the occupancy data being simulated. The distribution of bed occupancies for patient cohorts is calculated directly from occupancy data from "sentinel clinics". By coupling with infection scenarios, the prediction error is constrained by the error of the infection dynamics scenarios. The model allows systematic simulation of arbitrary infection scenarios, calculation of bed occupancy corridors, and sensitivity analyses with respect to protective measures.ResultsThe model was based on hospital data and by adjusting only two parameters of data in the Aachen city region and Germany as a whole. Using the example of the simulation of the respective bed occupancy rates for Germany as a whole, the loading model for the calculation of occupancy corridors is demonstrated. The occupancy corridors form barriers for bed occupancy in the event that infection rates do not exceed specific thresholds. In addition, lockdown scenarios are simulated based on retrospective events.DiscussionOur model demonstrates that a significant reduction in forecast uncertainty in occupancy forecasts is possible by selectively combining data from different sources. It allows arbitrary combination with infection dynamics models and scenarios, and thus can be used both for load forecasting and for sensitivity analyses for expected novel spreading and lockdown scenarios.
| S-EPMC7856858 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) outside daytime hours has been shown to be variably associated with increased morbidity and mortality. We aimed to describe the characteristics and outcomes of patients admitted to the ICU afterhours (22:00-06:59 h) in a large Canadian health region. We further hypothesized that the association between afterhours admission and mortality would be modified by indicators of strained ICU capacity. METHODS:This is a population-based cohort study of 12,265 adults admitted to nine ICUs in Alberta from June 2012 to December 2014. We used a path-analysis modeling strategy and mixed-effects multivariate regression analysis to evaluate direct and integrated associations (mediated through Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score) between afterhours admission (22:00-06:59 h) and ICU mortality. Further analysis examined the effects of strained ICU capacity and varied definitions of afterhours and weekend admissions. ICU occupancy ? 90% or clustering of admissions (??0.15, defined as number of admissions 2 h before or after the index admission, divided by the number of ICU beds) were used as indicators of strained capacity. RESULTS:Of 12,265 admissions, 34.7% (n?=?4251) occurred afterhours. The proportion of afterhours admissions varied amongst ICUs (range 26.7-37.8%). Patients admitted afterhours were younger (median (IQR) 58 (44-70) vs 60 (47-70) years, p?<?0.0001), more likely to have a medical diagnosis (75.9% vs 72.1%, p?<?0.0001), and had higher APACHE II scores (20.9 (8.6) vs 19.9 (8.3), p?<?0.0001). Crude ICU mortality was greater for those admitted afterhours (15.9% vs 14.1%, p?=?0.007), but following multivariate adjustment there was no direct or integrated effect on ICU mortality (odds ratio (OR) 1.024; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.923-1.135, p?=?0.658). Furthermore, direct and integrated analysis showed no association of afterhours admission and hospital mortality (p?=?0.90) or hospital length of stay (LOS) (p?=?0.27), although ICU LOS was shorter (p?=?0.049). Early-morning admission (00:00-06:59 h) with ICU occupancy ? 90% was associated with short-term (??7 days) and all-cause ICU mortality. CONCLUSIONS:One-third of critically ill patients are admitted to the ICU afterhours. Afterhours ICU admission was not associated with greater mortality risk in most circumstances but was sensitive to strained ICU capacity.
| S-EPMC5905119 | biostudies-literature