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ESTIMATING WITHIN-SCHOOL CONTACT NETWORKS TO UNDERSTAND INFLUENZA TRANSMISSION.

ABSTRACT: Many epidemic models approximate social contact behavior by assuming random mixing within mixing groups (e.g., homes, schools, and workplaces). The effect of more realistic social network structure on estimates of epidemic parameters is an open area of exploration. We develop a detailed statistical model to estimate the social contact network within a high school using friendship network data and a survey of contact behavior. Our contact network model includes classroom structure, longer durations of contacts to friends than non-friends and more frequent contacts with friends, based on reports in the contact survey. We performed simulation studies to explore which network structures are relevant to influenza transmission. These studies yield two key findings. First, we found that the friendship network structure important to the transmission process can be adequately represented by a dyad-independent exponential random graph model (ERGM). This means that individual-level sampled data is sufficient to characterize the entire friendship network. Second, we found that contact behavior was adequately represented by a static rather than dynamic contact network. We then compare a targeted antiviral prophylaxis intervention strategy and a grade closure intervention strategy under random mixing and network-based mixing. We find that random mixing overestimates the effect of targeted antiviral prophylaxis on the probability of an epidemic when the probability of transmission in 10 minutes of contact is less than 0.004 and underestimates it when this transmission probability is greater than 0.004. We found the same pattern for the final size of an epidemic, with a threshold transmission probability of 0.005. We also find random mixing overestimates the effect of a grade closure intervention on the probability of an epidemic and final size for all transmission probabilities. Our findings have implications for policy recommendations based on models assuming random mixing, and can inform further development of network-based models.

SUBMITTER: Potter GE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3359895 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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ESTIMATING WITHIN-SCHOOL CONTACT NETWORKS TO UNDERSTAND INFLUENZA TRANSMISSION.

Potter Gail E GE Handcock Mark S MS Longini Ira M IM Halloran M Elizabeth ME

The annals of applied statistics 20120301 1

Many epidemic models approximate social contact behavior by assuming random mixing within mixing groups (e.g., homes, schools, and workplaces). The effect of more realistic social network structure on estimates of epidemic parameters is an open area of exploration. We develop a detailed statistical model to estimate the social contact network within a high school using friendship network data and a survey of contact behavior. Our contact network model includes classroom structure, longer duratio ...[more]

PMID: 22639701

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Project description:There is growing evidence that anthropogenic sources of antibiotics and antimicrobial-resistant bacteria can spill over into natural ecosystems, raising questions about the role wild animals play in the emergence, maintenance, and dispersal of antibiotic resistance genes. In particular, we lack an understanding of how resistance genes circulate within wild animal populations, including whether specific host characteristics, such as social associations, promote interhost transmission of these genes. In this study, we used social network analysis to explore the forces shaping population-level patterns of resistant Escherichia coli in wild giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis) and assess the relative importance of social contact for the dissemination of resistant E. coli between giraffe. Of 195 giraffe sampled, only 5.1% harbored E. coli isolates resistant to one or more tested antibiotics. Whole-genome sequencing on a subset of resistant isolates revealed a number of acquired resistance genes with linkages to mobile genetic elements. However, we found no evidence that the spread of resistance genes among giraffe was facilitated by interhost associations. Giraffe with lower social degree were more likely to harbor resistant E. coli, but this relationship was likely driven by a correlation between an individual's social connectedness and age. Indeed, resistant E. coli was most frequently detected in socially isolated neonates, indicating that resistant E. coli may have a selective advantage in the gastrointestinal tracts of neonates compared to other age classes. Taken together, these results suggest that the maintenance of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria in wild populations may, in part, be determined by host traits and microbial competition dynamics within the host.IMPORTANCE Antimicrobial resistance represents a significant threat to human health, food security, and the global economy. To fully understand the evolution and dissemination of resistance genes, a complete picture of antimicrobial resistance in all biological compartments, including natural ecosystems, is required. The environment and wild animals may act as reservoirs for anthropogenically derived resistance genes that could be transferrable to clinically relevant bacteria of humans and domestic animals. Our study investigated the possible transmission mechanisms for antimicrobial-resistant bacteria within a wild animal population and, more broadly, contributes to our understanding of how resistance genes are spread and maintained in natural ecosystems.

Dataset Information

ESTIMATING WITHIN-SCHOOL CONTACT NETWORKS TO UNDERSTAND INFLUENZA TRANSMISSION.

Publications

ESTIMATING WITHIN-SCHOOL CONTACT NETWORKS TO UNDERSTAND INFLUENZA TRANSMISSION.

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