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Identification of Chinese plague foci from long-term epidemiological data.

ABSTRACT: Carrying out statistical analysis over an extensive dataset of human plague reports in Chinese villages from 1772 to 1964, we identified plague endemic territories in China (i.e., plague foci). Analyses rely on (i) a clustering method that groups time series based on their time-frequency resemblances and (ii) an ecological niche model that helps identify plague suitable territories characterized by value ranges for a set of predefined environmental variables. Results from both statistical tools indicate the existence of two disconnected plague territories corresponding to Northern and Southern China. Altogether, at least four well defined independent foci are identified. Their contours compare favorably with field observations. Potential and limitations of inferring plague foci and dynamics using epidemiological data is discussed.

SUBMITTER: Ben-Ari T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3361404 | biostudies-literature | 2012 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Identification of Chinese plague foci from long-term epidemiological data.

Ben-Ari Tamara T Neerinckx Simon S Agier Lydiane L Cazelles Bernard B Xu Lei L Zhang Zhibin Z Fang Xiye X Wang Shuchun S Liu Qiyong Q Stenseth Nils C NC

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20120508 21

Carrying out statistical analysis over an extensive dataset of human plague reports in Chinese villages from 1772 to 1964, we identified plague endemic territories in China (i.e., plague foci). Analyses rely on (i) a clustering method that groups time series based on their time-frequency resemblances and (ii) an ecological niche model that helps identify plague suitable territories characterized by value ranges for a set of predefined environmental variables. Results from both statistical tools ...[more]

PMID: 22570501

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Dataset Information

Identification of Chinese plague foci from long-term epidemiological data.

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Identification of Chinese plague foci from long-term epidemiological data.

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