Dataset Information

Analysing recent socioeconomic trends in coronary heart disease mortality in England, 2000-2007: a population modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in England fell by approximately 6% every year between 2000 and 2007. However, rates fell differentially between social groups with inequalities actually widening. We sought to describe the extent to which this reduction in CHD mortality was attributable to changes in either levels of risk factors or treatment uptake, both across and within socioeconomic groups.

Methods and findings

A widely used and replicated epidemiological model was used to synthesise estimates stratified by age, gender, and area deprivation quintiles for the English population aged 25 and older between 2000 and 2007. Mortality rates fell, with approximately 38,000 fewer CHD deaths in 2007. The model explained about 86% (95% uncertainty interval: 65%-107%) of this mortality fall. Decreases in major cardiovascular risk factors contributed approximately 34% (21%-47%) to the overall decline in CHD mortality: ranging from about 44% (31%-61%) in the most deprived to 29% (16%-42%) in the most affluent quintile. The biggest contribution came from a substantial fall in systolic blood pressure in the population not on hypertension medication (29%; 18%-40%); more so in deprived (37%) than in affluent (25%) areas. Other risk factor contributions were relatively modest across all social groups: total cholesterol (6%), smoking (3%), and physical activity (2%). Furthermore, these benefits were partly negated by mortality increases attributable to rises in body mass index and diabetes (-9%; -17% to -3%), particularly in more deprived quintiles. Treatments accounted for approximately 52% (40%-70%) of the mortality decline, equitably distributed across all social groups. Lipid reduction (14%), chronic angina treatment (13%), and secondary prevention (11%) made the largest medical contributions.

Conclusions

The model suggests that approximately half the recent CHD mortality fall in England was attributable to improved treatment uptake. This benefit occurred evenly across all social groups. However, opposing trends in major risk factors meant that their net contribution amounted to just over a third of the CHD deaths averted; these also varied substantially by socioeconomic group. Powerful and equitable evidence-based population-wide policy interventions exist; these should now be urgently implemented to effectively tackle persistent inequalities.

SUBMITTER: Bajekal M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3373639 | biostudies-literature | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Analysing recent socioeconomic trends in coronary heart disease mortality in England, 2000-2007: a population modelling study.

Bajekal Madhavi M Scholes Shaun S Love Hande H Hawkins Nathaniel N O'Flaherty Martin M Raine Rosalind R Capewell Simon S

PLoS medicine 20120612 6

<h4>Background</h4>Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in England fell by approximately 6% every year between 2000 and 2007. However, rates fell differentially between social groups with inequalities actually widening. We sought to describe the extent to which this reduction in CHD mortality was attributable to changes in either levels of risk factors or treatment uptake, both across and within socioeconomic groups.<h4>Methods and findings</h4>A widely used and replicated epidemiological mode ...[more]

PMID: 22719232

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Project description:BackgroundCoronary heart disease (CHD) remains a major public health burden, causing 80,000 deaths annually in England and Wales, with major inequalities. However, there are no recent analyses of age-specific socioeconomic trends in mortality. We analysed annual trends in inequalities in age-specific CHD mortality rates in small areas in England, grouped into deprivation quintiles.MethodsWe calculated CHD mortality rates for 10-year age groups (from 35 to ? 85 years) using three year moving averages between 1982 and 2006. We used Joinpoint regression to identify significant turning points in age- sex- and deprivation-specific time trends. We also analysed trends in absolute and relative inequalities in age-standardised rates between the least and most deprived areas.ResultsBetween 1982 and 2006, CHD mortality fell by 62.2% in men and 59.7% in women. Falls were largest for the most deprived areas with the highest initial level of CHD mortality. However, a social gradient in the pace of fall was apparent, being steepest in the least deprived quintile. Thus, while absolute inequalities narrowed over the period, relative inequalities increased. From 2000, declines in mortality rates slowed or levelled off in the youngest groups, notably in women aged 45-54 in the least deprived groups. In contrast, from age 55 years and older, rates of fall in CHD mortality accelerated in the 2000s, likewise falling fastest in the least deprived quintile.ConclusionsAge-standardised CHD mortality rates have declined substantially in England, with the steepest falls in the most affluent quintiles. However, this concealed contrasting patterns in underlying age-specific rates. From 2000, mortality rates levelled off in the youngest groups but accelerated in middle aged and older groups. Mortality analyses by small areas could provide potentially valuable insights into possible drivers of inequalities, and thus inform future strategies to reduce CHD mortality across all social groups.

Project description:ObjectiveTo analyse the falls in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in England between 2000 and 2007 and quantify the relative contributions from preventive medications and population-wide changes in blood pressure (BP) and cholesterol levels, particularly by exploring socioeconomic inequalities.DesignA modelling study.SettingSources of data included controlled trials and meta-analyses, national surveys and official statistics.ParticipantsEnglish population aged 25+ in 2000-2007.Main outcome measuresNumber of deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs) in 2007 by socioeconomic status. We used the IMPACTSEC model which applies the relative risk reduction quantified in previous randomised controlled trials and meta-analyses to partition the mortality reduction among specific treatments and risk factor changes.ResultsBetween 2000 and 2007, approximately 20 400 DPPs were attributable to reductions in BP and cholesterol in the English population. The substantial decline in BP was responsible for approximately 13 000 DPPs. Approximately 1800 DPPs came from medications and some 11 200 DPPs from population-wide changes. Reduction in population BP prevented almost twofold more deaths in the most deprived quintile compared with the most affluent. Reduction in cholesterol resulted in approximately 7400 DPPs; approximately 5300 DPPs were attributable to statin use and approximately 2100 DPPs to population-wide changes. Statins prevented almost 50% more deaths in the most affluent quintile compared with the most deprived. Conversely, population-wide changes in cholesterol prevented threefold more deaths in the most deprived quintile compared with the most affluent.ConclusionsPopulation-wide secular changes in systolic blood pressure (SBP) and cholesterol levels helped to substantially reduce CHD mortality and the associated socioeconomic disparities. Mortality reductions were, in absolute terms, greatest in the most deprived quintiles, mainly reflecting their bigger initial burden of disease. Statins for high-risk individuals also made an important contribution but maintained socioeconomic inequalities. Our results strengthen the case for greater emphasis on preventive approaches, particularly population-based policies to reduce SBP and cholesterol.

Project description:ObjectivesTo determine health and equity benefits and cost effectiveness of policies to reduce or eliminate trans fatty acids from processed foods, compared with consumption remaining at most recent levels in England.DesignEpidemiological modelling study.SettingData from National Diet and Nutrition Survey, Low Income Diet and Nutrition Survey, Office of National Statistics, and health economic data from other published studiesParticipantsAdults aged ≥25, stratified by fifths of socioeconomic circumstance.InterventionsTotal ban on trans fatty acids in processed foods; improved labelling of trans fatty acids; bans on trans fatty acids in restaurants and takeaways.Main outcome measuresDeaths from coronary heart disease prevented or postponed; life years gained; quality adjusted life years gained. Policy costs to government and industry; policy savings from reductions in direct healthcare, informal care, and productivity loss.ResultsA total ban on trans fatty acids in processed foods might prevent or postpone about 7200 deaths (2.6%) from coronary heart disease from 2015-20 and reduce inequality in mortality from coronary heart disease by about 3000 deaths (15%). Policies to improve labelling or simply remove trans fatty acids from restaurants/fast food could save between 1800 (0.7%) and 3500 (1.3%) deaths from coronary heart disease and reduce inequalities by 600 (3%) to 1500 (7%) deaths, thus making them at best half as effective. A total ban would have the greatest net cost savings of about £265m (€361m, $415m) excluding reformulation costs, or £64m if substantial reformulation costs are incurred outside the normal cycle.ConclusionsA regulatory policy to eliminate trans fatty acids from processed foods in England would be the most effective and equitable policy option. Intermediate policies would also be beneficial. Simply continuing to rely on industry to voluntary reformulate products, however, could have negative health and economic outcomes.

Project description:ObjectivesTo examine how much of the observed rapid decrease in mortality from coronary heart disease in Poland after the political, social, and economic transformation in the early 1990s could be explained by the use of medical and surgical treatments and how much by changes in cardiovascular risk factors.DesignA modelling study.SettingSources of data included controlled trials and meta-analyses, national surveys, and official statistics.ParticipantsPopulation of adults aged 25-74 in Poland in 1991-2005.Main outcome measuresNumber of deaths prevented or postponed in 2005 attributable to specific treatments for coronary heart disease and changes in risk factors. A previously validated epidemiological model for coronary heart disease was used to combine and analyse data on the uptake and effectiveness of specific cardiac treatments and changes in risk factors. The observed fall in deaths from coronary heart disease from 1991 to 2005 was then partitioned among specific treatments and risk factor changes.ResultsFrom 1991 to 2005, the death rate from coronary heart disease in Poland halved, resulting in 26,200 fewer coronary deaths in 2005 in people aged 25-74. About 37% (minimum estimate 13%, maximum estimate 77%) of this decrease was attributable to treatments, including treatments for heart failure (12%), initial treatments for acute coronary syndrome (9%), secondary prevention treatments after myocardial infarction or revascularisation (7%), chronic angina treatments (3%), and other treatments (6%). About 54% of the fall was attributed to changes in risk factors (minimum estimate 41%, maximum estimate 65%), mainly reductions in total cholesterol concentration (39%) and an increase in leisuretime physical activity (10%); however, these were partially offset by increases in body mass index (-4%) and prevalence of diabetes (-2%). Blood pressure fell in women, explaining about 29% of their decrease in mortality, but rose in men generating a negative influence (-8%). About 15% of the observed decrease in mortality was attributable to reduced smoking in men but was negligible in women.ConclusionsOver half of the recent fall in mortality from coronary heart disease in Poland can be attributed to reductions in major risk factors and about one third to evidence based medical treatments.

Project description:BackgroundIn Tunisia, Cardiovascular Diseases are the leading causes of death (30%), 70% of those are coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths and population studies have demonstrated that major risk factor levels are increasing.ObjectiveTo explain recent CHD trends in Tunisia between 1997 and 2009.MethodsData sourcesPublished and unpublished data were identified by extensive searches, complemented with specifically designed surveys.AnalysisData were integrated and analyzed using the previously validated IMPACT CHD policy model. Data items included: (i)number of CHD patients in specific groups (including acute coronary syndromes, congestive heart failure and chronic angina)(ii) uptake of specific medical and surgical treatments, and(iii) population trends in major cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure (SBP), body mass index (BMI), diabetes and physical inactivity).ResultsCHD mortality rates increased by 11.8% for men and 23.8% for women, resulting in 680 additional CHD deaths in 2009 compared with the 1997 baseline, after adjusting for population change. Almost all (98%) of this rise was explained by risk factor increases, though men and women differed. A large rise in total cholesterol level in men (0.73 mmol/L) generated 440 additional deaths. In women, a fall (-0.43 mmol/L), apparently avoided about 95 deaths. For SBP a rise in men (4 mmHg) generated 270 additional deaths. In women, a 2 mmHg fall avoided 65 deaths. BMI and diabetes increased substantially resulting respectively in 105 and 75 additional deaths. Increased treatment uptake prevented about 450 deaths in 2009. The most important contributions came from secondary prevention following Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) (95 fewer deaths), initial AMI treatments (90), antihypertensive medications (80) and unstable angina (75).ConclusionsRecent trends in CHD mortality mainly reflected increases in major modifiable risk factors, notably SBP and cholesterol, BMI and diabetes. Current prevention strategies are mainly focused on treatments but should become more comprehensive.

Dataset Information

Analysing recent socioeconomic trends in coronary heart disease mortality in England, 2000-2007: a population modelling study.

Background

Methods and findings

Conclusions

Publications

Analysing recent socioeconomic trends in coronary heart disease mortality in England, 2000-2007: a population modelling study.

Similar Datasets

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